Trading for Tarik Skubal

[Can_of_corn]

I can see being optimistic but I'm waiting to see what actually happens.

[Allan Bryant]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Why would Rubenstein, a lifelong Orioles fan in his seventies who happens to be a multi-billionaire, have purchased the Orioles to keep the payroll in the bottom third near the Rays? 

Do you know the net worth difference between Rubenstien and Sternberg? 

Do you know that the Orioles had a 99 million dollar profit last season (after all expenses)? Do you know that we have around a 34% increase in attendance this season?

Please explain to me why that would make sense? 

It’s not Rudenstein needs to bleed the team of all profits like the awful John aka Scrooge McAngelos.

That’s why I typed “ I hope I’m wrong “ at the end of my post . I responded to CoC comment about Orioles might aim to stay in the bottom third rankings of teams payroll .  Of course I do understand about your post about 99 million profit , attendance shooting up , etc . I just made my case why Orioles should keep Burnes, because their profits can afford him 

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes I agree if you don’t understand aging curves, talent, etc…thinking Grayson could be a 1 next year is very stupid.

I’m not saying Grayson can’t be… I said I’m not counting on it.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I completely agree and I would love for him to be an O for the next 5 years.  And hey, it isn't my money being spend on him.  That being said I doubt the Os do it and I can't say I really blame them.  The way starters are getting injured and the money that they are now getting?  For a smaller market team like the Os it is probably too much of a risk.  

That being said Burnes seems to have the type of delivery that makes him less injury prone compared to others. 

With Rubbenstein there is hope that didn’t exist under John Angelos

[OnlyOneOriole]

6 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

With Rubbenstein there is hope that didn’t exist under John Angelos

True

[oriolediehard]

Dodgers and O's have discussed trade talks for Skubal per MLBTR.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-dodgers-have-discussed-tarik-skubal-with-tigers.html

[wildcard]

On 7/18/2024 at 9:42 AM, Frobby said:

Forget about Soto.  Would you agree that 2.3 seasons of Skubal should be more valuable than 2.0 years of Erik Bedard was in the 2007-08 offseason?  The O’s received Adam Jones (#28 BA), Tillman (#67 BA), George Sherrill (established major league reliever with 3 years of control), Tony Butler (org. top 10 prospect) and Kam Mickolio (reliever prospect who threw in the high 90’s).   

I have no problem with the Tigers saying they want the moon and the stars.  Its a negotiating position.  The  Tigers GM and Ownership have to know that no trade has ever happened for a pitcher that is as aggressive that they are asking for.  They don't have to trade Skubal so the O's have to motive the Tigers with what that offer could be.

The O's offense is #1 in baseball in Homers, Slugging and Runs per game.    They are first in the AL in OPS.  The O's don't want to damage that.  They are 11th in Average and 15th OBP.  They want to improve that.

The O's have the #1 Farm System to deal from.

They need to keep:

1) Holliday because he will bring the high average and OBP the O's need In the future.

2) Basallo.  It's hard to find catchers that can hit and control the running game.  Him first teaming with Adley and a some point replacing Adley is a game changer.

3) Kjerstad is needed to replace Santander unless, unless, unless the O's are willing to extend him for 4/68m.   Which way will Elias and Rubenstein go with that?

------

Mayo with his incredible talent is someone that can head up a package.   Mayo is BA #25 prospect in 2024.  O's #3 prospect. (O's prospect by MLB.com)

Bradfield BA #82 prospect in 2024; #4 O's prospect  and Norby BA #93 prospect in 2023,  #5 Os prospect with a 911 OPS at AAA  currently are two players the Tigers could pick between.

McDermott #7 O's prospect; Povich O's #8 prospect:  and Johnson O's #9 prospect are three future starters that  Tigers could pick between.

Elias could add one or two more prospects to this list.

Looking at the Bedard package I think this package could compares well.

 

 

Edited July 21 by wildcard

[emmett16]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have no problem with the Tigers saying they want the moon and the stars.  Its a negotiating position.  The  Tigers GM and Ownership have to know that no trade has ever happened for a pitcher that is as aggressive that they are asking for.  They don't have to trade Skubal so the O's have to motive the Tigers with what that offer could be.

The O's offense is #1 in baseball in Homers, Slugging and Runs per game.    They are first in the AL in OPS.  The O's don't want to damage that.  They are 11th in Average and 15th OBP.  They want to improve that.

The O's have the #1 Farm System to deal from.

They need to keep:

1) Holliday because he will bring the high average and OBP the O's need In the future.

2) Basallo.  It's hard to find catchers that can hit and control the running game.  Him first teaming with Adley and a some point replacing Adley is a game changer.

3) Kjerstad is needed to replace Santander unless, unless, unless the O's are willing to extend him for 4/68m.   Which way will Elias and Rubinstein go with that?

------

Mayo with his incredible talent is someone that can head up a package.   Mayo is BA #25 prospect in 2024.  O's #3 prospect. (O's prospect by MLB.com)

Bradfield BA #82 prospect in 2024; #4 O's prospect  and Norby BA #93 prospect,  #5 Os prospect with a 911 OPS at AAA  currently are two players the Tigers could pick between.

McDermott #7 O's prospect; Povich O's #8 prospect:  and Johnson O's #9 prospect are three future starter that  Tigers could pick between.

Elias could add one or two more prospects to this list.

Looking at the Bedard package I think this package could compares well.

 

 

I think Mayo is the guy that gets traded as well.  Been thinking that since the season started.  Painful, but to get a star it has to be painful. 

[24fps]

All y'all Orioles fans need to learn how to spell the new majority owner's name.  It's Rubenstein.  Only one "b" and only one "i" kinda toward the end. 

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, 24fps said:

All y'all Orioles fans need to learn how to spell the new majority owner's name.  It's Rubenstein.  Only one "b" and only one "i" kinda toward the end. 

Glad to have you correct my grammar and spelling now and in the future.  But I must warn you its a full time job.

[Flash- bd]

Nor Holliday, nor Basallo, nor Mayo, nor Kjerstad should be traded (nor Cowser, given that we don't have anything other than him that looks like a likely CF of the future). They are all potential impact players with years of cost-effective control ahead of them, you just don't trade that.

Obviously I would love Skubal if we can make a deal for him trading a number of prospects and assets that don't include those names, but if we can't I much prefer trading for a lesser option. The difference between that lesser option and Skubal is not big enough to make up for the loss of all of those years of any of those players mentioned. 

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Nor Holliday, nor Basallo, nor Mayo, nor Kjerstad should be traded (nor Cowser, given that we don't have anything other than him that looks like a likely CF of the future). They are all potential impact players with years of cost-effective control ahead of them, you just don't trade that.

Obviously I would love Skubal if we can make a deal for him trading a number of prospects and assets that don't include those names, but if we can't I much prefer trading for a lesser option. The difference between that lesser option and Skubal is not big enough to make up for the loss of all of those years of any of those players mentioned. 

IMO this is about winning the World Series.  The O's have one of if not the best offense in the MLB.  That is with Mayo in the minors.    Everyone knows the O's will benefit from better pitching.   Compare the O's starters to the Phillies with and without Skubal.   I think it speaks for itself.

Elias is about bold moves to be meet the moment.  He did that with Burnes and Kimbrel.   I think he will do it again.

Edited July 21 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias is about bold moves to be meet the moment.  He did that with Burnes and Kimbrel.   I think he will do it again.

There’s so much wrong with this statement.  Kimbrel was not a “bold” move.  Burnes was semi bold in that it wasn’t a package that hurt a lot to give up.   Most people, including myself, would have to laugh at the first sentence.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

There’s so much wrong with this statement.  Kimbrel was not a “bold” move.  Burnes was semi bold in that it wasn’t a package that hurt a lot to give up.   Most people, including myself, would have to laugh at the first sentence.

The Kimbrel move was the antithesis of bold.

[Flash- bd]

30 minutes ago, wildcard said:

IMO this is about winning the World Series.  The O's have one of if not the best offense in the MLB.  That is with Mayo in the minors.    Everyone knows the O's will benefit from better pitching.   Compare the O's starters to the Phillies with and without Skubal.   I think it speaks for itself.

Elias is about bold moves to be meet the moment.  He did that with Burnes and Kimbrel.   I think he will do it again.

How much does Skubal increase our odds of winning the world series compared to the next best option? At best, considering it's arguable how much one starting pitcher can increase your odds in the playoffs at all, we're talking about marginal gains. Perhaps his biggest potential differentiator between him and the next best option would be the increase in chances he would represent for us finishing 1st in the east and avoiding the first round series. 

Again, I simply do not see an argument for the difference between Skubal and the next best option being worth the difference between Mayo and a package of our next best prospects. When you break it down rationally a Jack Flaherty type play or slightly better, like last season, is probably the best. Indeed, Jack Flaherty, if there weren't potentially the idea that he didn't fit in well with our clubhouse, might be a very good target himself.