Trading for Tarik Skubal

[banks703]

40 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Would we do Holliday, Cowser, Beavers, McDermott, and Johnson for Skubal?

I say yes. Trying to keep the LH SP prospects since we have the WALL.

They could swap Norby in for Beavers if they wanted. They get three immediate starters in position players if they go with Norby. Along with two pitching prospects.

This is like a Madden 2004 trade proposal. Too much. 

The point to entertaining the idea of including JH is that it would require less tapping into the other top 15, especially top 10. 

HK's recent stretch of success at the plate with the big club has forgiven his previous struggles and removed from our memory that CC was the higher rated prospect through much of their time together in the minors, with CC climbing as high as 15 (but I seem to remember him being top ten at some point) in all of baseball. CC is playing plus-plus defense in the outfield and is the only guy in their system that can take over in Center long-term should something happen with Ced. CC is going to hit. He's going to be fine. If they threw in CC with JH, then they shouldn't (and won't) throw in Beavers, McDermott AND Seth Johnson (who I am a big fan of). This would be an overpay for Skubal. 

Norby, Holliday AND CC would be an overpay for Skubal and Norby is probably redundant for Detroit if JH is the main piece. 

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Forget about Soto.  Would you agree that 2.3 seasons of Skubal should be more valuable than 2.0 years of Erik Bedard was in the 2007-08 offseason?  The O’s received Adam Jones (#28 BA), Tillman (#67 BA), George Sherrill (established major league reliever with 3 years of control), Tony Butler (org. top 10 prospect) and Kam Mickolio (reliever prospect who threw in the high 90’s).   

I do think Bedard is a good comp. Honestly Skubal's resume is a bit better than Bedard's. However, the Bedard trade is also a cautionary tale, a great example of why we probably shouldn't give up that much.  

The other more recent comp that comes to mind is Luis Castillo, although the Mariners got only 1.5 years. They got Noelvi Marte who was an MLB top 20 guy along with two other Mariners top 10-20 guys. Arguably Skubal should get perhaps double that, so either a top 5 prospect like Holliday or something like Basallo and Kjerstad. I hope we don't pay that much. 

[G54377]

I distinctly remember Keith Law saying the Mariners greatly overpaid for Bedard. In fact I think he said a straight Bedard for Adam Jones swap would likely still be in our favor. I usually can't stand Keith Law, but he got that one right.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, CTBear said:

I think it’s pretty plausible. We were heavily linked to Cease on the final day and Elias even said he was working to acquire other pitchers and Flaherty was more of a contingency plan since talks fell through. And then, Cease did get dealt in the offseason so it’s safe to assume he was available at the deadline and they just couldn’t find a deal. 

But that doesn’t mean Elias holds anything against Getz or anything like that.

They didn’t come to a deal.  It happens all the time.

This isn’t the playground at elementary school where you get into a fight and storm off crying.

 

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m 99.9% sure you are completely overblowing this. 

One thing I will give you credit for is how consistent you are.

You are the ultimate example of what it means to be an absolutist. 

I’m actually kind of disappointed with the 0.1%  

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, G54377 said:

I distinctly remember Keith Law saying the Mariners greatly overpaid for Bedard. In fact I think he said a straight Bedard for Adam Jones swap would likely still be in our favor. I usually can't stand Keith Law, but he got that one right.

I know from experience, you state enough strong opinions often enough and eventually you nail one.

[Frobby]

I don’t disagree that the M’s overpaid for Bedard, especially with 20/20 hindsight.  Let’s just say they weren’t the only team in the bidding, and a lot of teams were offering a lot.  But there will be a lot of teams in on Skubal, too, and IMO 2.3 seasons of Skubal > 2.0 seasons of Bedard.  I think it will cost one of our top 3 and several other quality pieces.  Two of our top three?  I wouldn’t do it.  

[Number5]

1 hour ago, CTBear said:

I think it’s pretty unlikely we’re going for Crochet, or any CWS player for that matter, after last year. It sounded pretty clear Elias was dragged along by Getz all the way up to the deadline for Cease and they just never moved him. I can’t imagine Elias wants to do that one over. 

Getz wasn't the GM.

[CTBear]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But that doesn’t mean Elias holds anything against Getz or anything like that.

They didn’t come to a deal.  It happens all the time.

This isn’t the playground at elementary school where you get into a fight and storm off crying.

 

If Getz brings an attractive offer to the table, then I’m sure Elias would talk. But they haven’t landed on any other deals since then. I’m not saying they can’t ever trade between each other; I just don’t think Elias will make the same mistake. He’s done a few deals with Oakland so I’d see a deal for Miller or Erceg as much more likely than Crochet or Fedde. 

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t disagree that the M’s overpaid for Bedard, especially with 20/20 hindsight.  Let’s just say they weren’t the only team in the bidding, and a lot of teams were offering a lot.  But there will be a lot of teams in on Skubal, too, and IMO 2.3 seasons of Skubal > 2.0 seasons of Bedard.  I think it will cost one of our top 3 and several other quality pieces.  Two of our top three?  I wouldn’t do it.  

Honestly, if reports are true, the Os didn’t even take the best deal (in hindsight)

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Getz wasn't the GM.

Correct. The Cease/Getz stuff was the offseason.

 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

You are completely wrong. Just stop.

Spare parts to “us” 

Holliday - Gunnar SS. Westburg 2B. Mayo 3B

Cowser - Kjerstad LF. Mullins CF. Santander RF. 

EBJ - Honeycutt 

McDermott and Johnson - Do we ever see them starting a playoff game?  They’re RH as well. Keep the LH SP prospects. 

Where am I wrong here?  Cowser has a milkman cow gimmick?  He had a hot three weeks?  He’s got a lot of red on his baseball savant page… WHEN he makes contact. 

[Orioles Jim]

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Spare parts to “us” 

Holliday - Gunnar SS. Westburg 2B. Mayo 3B

Cowser - Kjerstad LF. Mullins CF. Santander RF. 

EBJ - Honeycutt 

McDermott and Johnson - Do we ever see them starting a playoff game?  They’re RH as well. Keep the LH SP prospects. 

Where am I wrong here?  Cowser has a milkman cow gimmick?  He had a hot three weeks?  He’s got a lot of red on his baseball savant page… WHEN he makes contact. 

You are wrong because calling CC and JH spare parts is a completely ridiculous thing to say.  It’s just a non sensical and illogical thought.

[jamalshw]

The more I think of this, the more I love the idea of Skubal. A Burnes/Skubal tandem is about as strong as you can get to lead any series and makes me a lot more optimistic going into a 5 (or 3 game series). And the fact he's under control makes it better as it softens the absolute NEED to resign Burnes which we have now and will have unless we add an ace. Of course, even with Skubal, I'd hope for us to resign Burnes, but it doesn't become as dire and we don't go into the offseason as desperate. 

Obviously, if the demands are the insane demands that some on twitter are proposing (2-3 of the top guys), etc, it's a hard no. 

BUT...if it can be done for Basallo, Norby and a few more, then I'm all in. I'll even though Mounty in there if they have interest and give the spot to Mayo.