The Elephant in the Room - The Red Sox

[sportsfan8703]

6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure how you can watch how we played the last two weeks and not worry about the Yankees and Red Sox. 

I do think a lot of that had to do with Gunnar and Westburg hitting slumps. That definitely exposed the rest of the lineup, so hopefully we get that fixed and find some pitching soon.

Everyone we can get, so can they.  Keep that in mind.  We might have to make a trade to stay where we're at.  The Sawx could force Elias' hand.  

Elias has not had to go toe to toe with keeping up with the Yanks and Sawx yet.  This could be the first time.  Those Giants are only going to be passive for so long.  When they want to buy, they'll buy.  

Edited July 19 by sportsfan8703

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

29 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I believe the Red Sox have the toughest schedule in MLB in the second half of the season. We're middling, and Yankees have one of the easiest schedules. 25 of Boston's next 34 games are against teams with winning records. I think they'll fade significantly in that time. 

I still think the Yankees are the bigger problem in the second half. They've played about as bad as a team can and they're right behind the Orioles in the standings. The Yankees have an easier second half schedule and they will make moves at the trade deadline.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure how you can watch how we played the last two weeks and not worry about the Yankees and Red Sox. 

 

Because I don’t judge the team on two weeks of play.  But if they play poorly in the second half, obviously they could be passed.   That will be their own fault if it happens.   

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Everyone we can get, so can they.  Keep that in mind.  We might have to make a trade to stay where we're at.  The Sawx could force Elias' hand.  

Elias has not had to go toe to toe with keeping up with the Yanks and Sawx yet.  This could be the first time.  Those Giants are only going to be passive for so long.  When they want to buy, they'll buy.  

Well, they can't get Mayo and we can give many more ABs to Kjerstad the rest of the way. That's two  near-immediate upgrades. McDermott also fits well in the bullpen, IMO. All should be major 2nd half contributors.

I would like to see a smaller trade for a RH CF-er. Not sure what the best options are there.

Then there's pitching. Will Holliday be part of our lineup or part of the return for pitching?

[LookinUp]

Just now, Frobby said:

Because I don’t judge the team on two weeks of play.  But if they play poorly in the second half, obviously they could be passed.   That will be their own fault if it happens.   

The Red Sox are 4.5 games back, not 10. They essentially had one bad month. 

The Yankees are 1 game back.

It's not like we're running away with this thing. They're both legitimately good teams. If we don't play well, or even very well, one or both could pass us. I'm not saying the odds are there, but I'm not ignoring the competition either.

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure how you can watch how we played the last two weeks and not worry about the Yankees and Red Sox. 

I do think a lot of that had to do with Gunnar and Westburg hitting slumps. That definitely exposed the rest of the lineup, so hopefully we get that fixed and find some pitching soon.

If we play at a 3-7 pace the rest of the year I will be worried about a lot more than the Red Sox. Fortunately it is pretty rare for a .600+ team to do that. 

Once we get to the playoffs I will be worried about any team we face. A 1969 scenario is always possible no matter how good you are in the regular season. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The Red Sox are 4.5 games back, not 10. They essentially had one bad month. 

The Yankees are 1 game back.

It's not like we're running away with this thing. They're both legitimately good teams. If we don't play well, or even very well, one or both could pass us. I'm not saying the odds are there, but I'm not ignoring the competition either.

We're 9-13 and rank pretty much near last in a lot of offensive categories in the MLB.  We all know about the pitching.  

The sky isn't falling.  I'm confident.  But the days of us sitting here saying every trade is "too expensive" are gone.  Gotta come to grips with that.  

[LookinUp]

Yeah. I'm not predicting an under-500 record the rest of the way, but we were playing at a .650 pace and that's also not realistic.

[LGOrioles]

29 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I still think the Yankees are the bigger problem in the second half. They've played about as bad as a team can and they're right behind the Orioles in the standings. The Yankees have an easier second half schedule and they will make moves at the trade deadline.

They had a terrible stretch but they were also due to regress. Stroman/Rodon/Gil were over performing their peripherals like crazy as was pretty much their whole lineup besides Soto/Judge. 

[interloper]

Duran is a really good player. 5 WAR CF from the 7th round? That's a home run draft pick right there. 

He didn't pop off until he was 26 last year, so there's another reason to not write off players if they're not amazing at age 24 or whatever. 

Edited July 19 by interloper

[Moose Milligan]

I'm assuming the Red Sox defense hasn't gotten better magically overnight, too.  I'm not too worried about them.

 

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

   We need to buy a SP, RP, and Luis Robert. 

 

 

Dude, no.

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure how you can watch how we played the last two weeks and not worry about the Yankees and Red Sox. 

I do think a lot of that had to do with Gunnar and Westburg hitting slumps. That definitely exposed the rest of the lineup, so hopefully we get that fixed and find some pitching soon.

The RISP numbers are a lot of bad luck. Things will even outs. Zero doubt they make the playoffs unless a rash of injuries occur.

[LookitsPuck]

The Red Sox winning the remainder of the season entirely hinges on whether Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford can continue putting up Cy Young like numbers. 

I'm not bullish on Houck keeping it up. In his last 7 starts he has an ERA nearly 4 with a FIP to boot. 

I'm also not bullish on Kutter continuing his numbers. I think he'll regress a little.

But all that said? I don't think they're going to fall off. They're a good, young team. 

They're 2nd best in R/G from their offense, and slightly above average with the pitching. That's a wild card team. 

Let's compare the 2 clubs:

• Offense
  • Orioles: 4.94 R/G
  • Red Sox: 4.69 R/G
• Pitching
  • Orioles: 4.10 R/G
  • Red Sox: 4.23 R/G
• Bullpen
  • Orioles: 3.83 ERA
  • Red Sox: 3.67 ERA
• Starting
  • Orioles: 3.63 ERA
  • Red Sox: 3.64 ERA

Keep in mind, those starting numbers include Bradish for quite a bit. Our SP numbers will most likely regress quite a bit. 

Either way, nothing changes for what the O's need: another starter, another reliever. 

[Spakman]

I do not fear the Red Sox their ownership group does not care about putting a winning product on the field. They want to go the Orioles route and they are probably upset that the Red Sox are doing so well.

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

As @Sports Guy pointed out, the Red Sox are a team that could make a deal for Skubal.  Really they have a system to get anyone they want.  

I'm confident in us.  We need to buy a SP, RP, and Luis Robert. 

The Red sox aren't the cute, and cuddly, sub .500 team we think they are.  They could get on the scene real fast.  Offense is always cheaper to buy than pitching.  

No to the always hurt Robert.  He needs to play in a suit of bubble wrap.  The O's need pitching, pitching, and more pitching.