2024 Trade Deadline Aftermath

[RZNJ]

7 hours ago, Birdland in NC said:

Ben McDonald mentioned today we aren’t going to see Bradish next season 

Maybe, but is Ben McDonald basing that on anything coming from the Orioles or just speculating like we would.   If he went under the knife in June and the expected recovery time is 12-15 months then it’s certainly conceivable that he could miss all of next year.  
 

Robbie Ray had TJ surgery on 5/3/23.

He returned pitching for the Giants on 7/24/24.   That’s just shy of 15 months.
 

 

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I was as underwhelmed as anyone (in particular after the Rodgers trade), but after taking some time to think, sleep, and reflect; I think Elias did as well as anyone and as well as you could realistically expect considering who was moved and who was not.

After seeing all the transactions, (S/O to @Sanfran327 for laying them all out!) I can see the vision Elias had which I believe is - Instead of taking one big swing for the fences, just try to hit as many singles as you can. What Elias did was to strengthen the floor of the roster significantly. The problem with the O's after all the pitching injuries is that we had become WAY TOO top heavy. Over the last 6 weeks, in games that Burnes or Rodriguez didn't start, we were often not competitive from a pitching perspective. Yes the offense has slumped as of late (in particular our best 2 hitters - Adley & Gunnar) but you cannot sustain winning surrendering 6 runs a game like we had been doing since the Bradish injury.

No we didn't make the sexy/splashy move that I and many others had hoped for, but we patched a lot of holes on a boat that was leaking badly. Just think about over the month of July all of the bad teams that we made look like world beaters because we couldn't pitch. We had way too many pitchers who simply aren't good Major Leaguers being counted on (or at least in roles that they have no business being in - like Kremer/Suarez as #3/4 starters or Perez as a 8th inning guy, etc.)

When you think about the fact that there were no difference making players who moved teams, I can't really blame Elias for acquiring one. Think about how MIA got a top 100 prospect for a guy in Tanner Scott who will be an FA in 2 months. IMO that is a serious overpay and would not have wanted to sell Kjerstad for what would have equated to pennies on the dollar. Yes, we traded away Norby and Stowers for an underwhelming return (as a side note I am very happy for both of them), but that was the cost of doing business yesterday, as the new Wild Card rules now favor sellers in a way that they can maximize leverage (since there are so few now).

Last thing, while we are not the clear favorite (like I wanted us to be) there is no team in the AL that scares me. And other than SEA and Philly who really has a better rotation? And next year, we should be a better team as we will have everyone back while adding Felix ... As long as we resign Burnes/Fried or another pitcher who can give us consistent performances like Burnes has this season. That guy has been everything anybody could have ever hoped or dreamed for!

Wow!   You definitely haven’t had your first cup yet.   

[CaptainRedbeard]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe, but is Ben McDonald basing that on anything coming from the Orioles or just speculating like we would.   If he went under the knife in June and the expected recovery time is 12-15 months then it’s certainly conceivable that he could miss all of next year.  
 

Robbie Ray had TJ surgery on 5/3/23.

He returned pitching for the Giants on 7/24/24.   That’s just shy of 15 months.
 

 

Yeah I think McDonald was just off. If Bradish has a normal recovery, even if they give him the full 15 months he’d be in line to come back when rosters expand in September, like Means in 2023. They could even run a 6-man rotation then with the extra roster spot.

Considering how much of a boost Bradish would be for September + playoffs and how that’s a full 15 month period and not pushing an aggressive recovery timetable, you have to think that’s the plan. I think that timing may have even played a part in the decision to call it and get the surgery when they did rather than continue trying to pitch through it. Miss one playoffs instead of two. 

[Aristotelian]

41 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I was as underwhelmed as anyone (in particular after the Rodgers trade), but after taking some time to think, sleep, and reflect; I think Elias did as well as anyone and as well as you could realistically expect considering who was moved and who was not.

After seeing all the transactions, (S/O to @Sanfran327 for laying them all out!) I can see the vision Elias had which I believe is - Instead of taking one big swing for the fences, just try to hit as many singles as you can. What Elias did was to strengthen the floor of the roster significantly. The problem with the O's after all the pitching injuries is that we had become WAY TOO top heavy. Over the last 6 weeks, in games that Burnes or Rodriguez didn't start, we were often not competitive from a pitching perspective. Yes the offense has slumped as of late (in particular our best 2 hitters - Adley & Gunnar) but you cannot sustain winning surrendering 6 runs a game like we had been doing since the Bradish injury.

No we didn't make the sexy/splashy move that I and many others had hoped for, but we patched a lot of holes on a boat that was leaking badly. Just think about over the month of July all of the bad teams that we made look like world beaters because we couldn't pitch. We had way too many pitchers who simply aren't good Major Leaguers being counted on (or at least in roles that they have no business being in - like Kremer/Suarez as #3/4 starters or Perez as a 8th inning guy, etc.)

When you think about the fact that there were no difference making players who moved teams, I can't really blame Elias for acquiring one. Think about how MIA got a top 100 prospect for a guy in Tanner Scott who will be an FA in 2 months. IMO that is a serious overpay and would not have wanted to sell Kjerstad for what would have equated to pennies on the dollar. Yes, we traded away Norby and Stowers for an underwhelming return (as a side note I am very happy for both of them), but that was the cost of doing business yesterday, as the new Wild Card rules now favor sellers in a way that they can maximize leverage (since there are so few now).

Last thing, while we are not the clear favorite (like I wanted us to be) there is no team in the AL that scares me. And other than SEA and Philly who really has a better rotation? And next year, we should be a better team as we will have everyone back while adding Felix ... As long as we resign Burnes/Fried or another pitcher who can give us consistent performances like Burnes has this season. That guy has been everything anybody could have ever hoped or dreamed for!

Excellent post. Glad to see you are coming around. That doesn't often happen on message boards. Be prepared for the inevitable underwhelming in the offseason! I think Rogers gives us some flexibility but Elias may use it to extend his own guys. Eflin is $18M and that's not nothing. 

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, HowAboutThat said:

Based on those numbers, they are both mediocre, but one is more mediocre than the other.

21 runs in 54 innings is quite good.  Whether Rogers can keep it up is another story.  

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Excellent post. Glad to see you are coming around. That doesn't often happen on message boards. Be prepared for the inevitable underwhelming in the offseason! I think Rogers gives us some flexibility but Elias may use it to extend his own guys. Eflin is $18M and that's not nothing. 

One of the other things that the deadline showed is that Rubenstein is willing to take on contracts and spend money.

How much is unclear. But it is much more than John Angelos ever would/could. And to be fair, they really were not swinging in the same pool financially while steward over the O’s (with one being a trust fund baby and the other a billionaire venture capitalist).

With what Rubenstein showed, I have hope that if a big extension(s) is possible, he will support it. 

[Bemorewins]

56 minutes ago, foxfield said:

This is an outstanding post.  And I admit it surprised me.  I hope this turns out to be a good thing for the Orioles and of course we will not know for some time.  But I am moved by your reflection after being so aggressive in your advocacy for the "big move".  Well done.

I am a very passionate person by nature and very impatient. The facts and after action analysis say that I was wrong and needed to wait to let the whole thing play out.

In hindsight (as we know now) there was no big move to make. I think contenders were scared off by Crochet not being available in the post season and the CHI SOX probably reasoned it would be better to wait until the offseason. I don’t know what DET’s rationale is other than they didn’t want to alienate their fanbase with an underwhelming return because their expectations were so high. Plus DET now is Lions town/country (Big Time) and the Tigers probably don’t want to risk being knocked further down the pecking order in that market.

[Safelykept]

8 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Remember earlier in the season when against LHP it seemed like we played McCann as he was straight one of the best 9 options Hyde had.

From here against any random LHP I guess Hyde could go:

LF Slater, RF Santander, SS Gunnar, C Adley, 1B Mountcastle, 2B Westburg, DH Eloy, CF Cowser, 3B Urias

Sure anywhere you write Eloy you could also write Mayo.   

I hope Holliday as long as his chin is above water he isn't hidden but certainly it is possible a platoon player is all he will be this fall.

McCann has to bat when he catches, might as well be against LHs.

[Bemorewins]

42 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Wow!   You definitely haven’t had your first cup yet.   

Just finished it…lol

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So Reilly is now our 15 th best prospect 

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles

I think this move was to help clear guys he’d have to expose in the Rule V. He’s started this season with good results. But he’s walked 44 in 81 innings. So he could be a leverage reliever as a two pitch pitcher is starting doesn’t work out. 
 

This is probably their best move besides Eflin … A fringe near rule 5 top 30 guy for a top #15 with upside.

Quote

he leaned heavily on his fastball, which was 95-99 mph during his pro debut, and for good reason. With high spin and ride at the top of zone along with impressive induced vertical break, it’s a tough pitch for any hitter to square up, let alone make contact with. His mid-80s slider flashes plus, though he only landed it for a strike half the time at Vanderbilt in 2023, 

.
 

On Reilly they said his fastball reaches 99 with “High Spin”. 

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

One of the other things that the deadline showed is that Rubenstein is willing to take on contracts and spend money.

How much is unclear. But it is much more than John Angelos ever would/could. And to be fair, they really were not swinging in the same pool financially while steward over the O’s (with one being a trust fund baby and the other a billionaire venture capitalist).

With what Rubenstein showed, I have hope that if a big extension(s) is possible, he will support it. 

Good point. I see it as further evidence (along with the Kimbrel and Burnes moves) of a pivot toward supplementing the core as needed (but not a full 180 to abandon the pipeline and go all in). That may not be enough for some folks the the new regime deserves at least some credit 

[Sports Guy]

Not sure why Slater should be over Pache.

Slater did have good offensive numbers in the past but the defense, speed and arm strength have dropped off and the offense looks much worse.

And can he play CF? OAA has him maybe average but the rest of the stats suggest he’s below average, perhaps well below average.

Slater has been excellent vs lefties. The last time his OPS was under 820 vs lefties was 2018. That said, hes awful this year.

Edited July 31 by Sports Guy

[LGOrioles]

FWIW, Fangraphs Depth Charts has Dominguez as arguably their best reliever ROS, with Soto 3rd or 4th (not including Coulombe or Akin, who has strong projections but is likely a lower leverage guy). Coulombe would be their best reliever when healthy and they’re missing a true shutdown guy, but their depth looks pretty good on that front even without Coulombe. Only the Braves have more healthy relievers they project as accruing at least 0.1 WAR ROS, with a few other teams tied (with 6) with the O’s. Depth Charts ranks them 13th without Coulombe, but they would likely be 9th or 10th with him. 

Depth Charts also ranks their starters tied for 6th in WAR ROS. Similar to the BP additions, Rogers isn’t an huge impact guy himself, but certainly helps their depth and is much better than throwing Povich/McDermott or the recent iterations of Suarez/Irvin out there. 

Since Bradish went down, Irvin had a 9.57 ERA in 26 IP, Tate was at 8.74 in 11 IP, Povich had a 6.92 ERA in 26 IP, Suarez had a 6.40 ERA in 32 IP, and Baker had a 5.40 ERA in 15 IP. Just less innings for guys like that is an improvement. 

[MarCakes21]

What happens when you DFA a guy after the deadline?  Can someone trade for them?

[Warehouse]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe, but is Ben McDonald basing that on anything coming from the Orioles or just speculating like we would.   If he went under the knife in June and the expected recovery time is 12-15 months then it’s certainly conceivable that he could miss all of next year.  
 

Robbie Ray had TJ surgery on 5/3/23.

He returned pitching for the Giants on 7/24/24.   That’s just shy of 15 months.
 

 

Jacob DeGrom is probably the best benchmark. He had same combination TJ/brace procedure from same doctor (Keith Meister) performed on June 12th 2023 (1 year and 1 week ahead of Bradish’s June 19th surgery).  DeGrom is probably ~1 week away from a rehab assignment.  That probably puts him on track for last week of August or first couple weeks of September, assuming no major setbacks.  Bradish would presumably be a week behind that schedule next year, so the return timeline will be tight.