Offer Anthony Santander 3 year 60 million contract

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I remember thinking the first few years might be good and was fearful of the later part of that contract. Had no idea it would be so bad, so fast. 

I wasn’t in favor of the Davis contract but zero people thought it would be as bad as it was, no matter what anyone says. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I wasn’t in favor of the Davis contract but zero people thought it would be as bad as it was, no matter what anyone says. 

I can't think of any precedents when you include health.

[jabba72]

6 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

Too bad the Yankees weren't scared off by Aaron Judge turning 30.  He's only gotten better.  Same thing happened to Frank Robinson, Nelson Cruz and Freddie Freeman to name a few.  Chris Davis' issues were already there before he turned 30.  Not to say Anthony Santander is Aaron Judge or Frank Robinson, but he's certainly not Chris Davis either and would not be getting a contract close to that long.

Yes, the Yankees only got 106 games from Judge in the first season of that deal, not exactly a great outcome and he also turns 33 next April. IMO Judge is within a year or two of serious decline either by injury or just losing athleticism due to age. He's bucking the odds so far...

[wildcard]

The O's will pay Chris Davis over 9M in 2024.

[gamiliel]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I wasn’t in favor of the Davis contract but zero people thought it would be as bad as it was, no matter what anyone says. 

Not true....I predicted that he would inexplicably watch pitches right down the middle without flinching. The signs of it were there well before the ill-fated contract was signed.

[RarityFlaherty]

At the time of the Davis deal, I definitely didn’t think it would be as bad as it was, and I had the “it’s not my money” mindset. My only concern was whether or not they’d still be able to lock up Manny. And that’s pretty much how I feel about Santander. If it doesn’t affect resigning Gunnar, I’m fine with it. I just wouldn’t want them to go longer than 3 years. But my real preference would be to give him a qualifying offer and either keep him around one more year, or get draft compensation for losing him. I really like Santander, but I’d rather them spend that money elsewhere. 

Not even looking at performance after the fact, the Davis signing was bad because of positional value. I don’t see any reason to spend a lot of money to lock up a first baseman, or a right fielder like Santander. You spend your money locking up guys that can play premium positions like SS and CF.

Gunnar should be the #1 priority. Catcher, you worry about durability, but I wouldn’t mind seeing them lock up Adley. 2B and 3B are borderline, you spend on them if you can afford it. With our current stadium dimensions, LF becomes part of that group. And then 1B and RF are the very last place you want to have a bunch of money invested in.

The only caveat is if those guys are a different level of hitter that hits for both power and average. And even then, it’s a gamble that they keep up that level of production. I’d rather lock up guys who are at least still providing a lot of value with their glove, even if the production with the bat drops in the future. 

Edited August 16 by RarityFlaherty

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Saw a Sports Illustrated article last night about impending free agents that have significantly raised their stock this year and it hypothesized that, as arguably the best available FA slugger after Juan Soto, and as a switch hitter with 40 HR power, Santander might land a $150 million-ish dollar deal this offseason.

I was already against offering him more than like 3/$45 million (or 1/$20 million-ish via the QO) because his profile (low AVG, low OBP, poor sprint speed, and poor defense) screams "bad investment," so obviously I am completely and utterly horrified at the idea of giving him anything close to Chris Davis money. 

FWIW, I don't think he will actually get $150 million in free agency, but a lot of teams are desperate for offense right now, so who knows where the bidding war ends up...

[DrinkinWithFermi]

8 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

Too bad the Yankees weren't scared off by Aaron Judge turning 30.  He's only gotten better

Bruh.

His contract is only like 2 years old and runs for another 7 or 8 years and $250-300 million, and he is already well into his 30s and still getting injured regularly. Declaring it a success right now is about as silly as silly can get.

[Sanfran327]

I think this is an instance of the O's being far better off trying to negotiate an extension ASAP if they want to retain him. Don't even let him test the market and fill his head with numbers we don't want to meet or exceed to keep him.

Then again, he's no dummy, and neither is his agent. The writing is already on the wall, and he's had a fantastic season. It may be too late to take advantage of whatever home town discount may have been considered from his camp.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

14 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

I think this is an instance of the O's being far better off trying to negotiate an extension ASAP if they want to retain him. Don't even let him test the market and fill his head with numbers we don't want to meet or exceed to keep him.

Then again, he's no dummy, and neither is his agent. The writing is already on the wall, and he's had a fantastic season. It may be too late to take advantage of whatever home town discount may have been considered from his camp.

I don't think this is realistic at all. He knows this is his one shot at a big payday and that a bidding war on the open market among teams desperate for offense is virtually guaranteed. I cannot imagine his agent would advise him to do anything except wait another 2 or 3 months to reach free agency unless the Orioles make an offer that is an obvious, massive overpay.

He will be playing next year for whoever overpays him the most this winter and that team will not be the Orioles, and that's okay.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Saw a Sports Illustrated article last night about impending free agents that have significantly raised their stock this year and it hypothesized that, as arguably the best available FA slugger after Juan Soto, and as a switch hitter with 40 HR power, Santander might land a $150 million-ish dollar deal this offseason.

I was already against offering him more than like 3/$45 million (or 1/$20 million-ish via the QO) because his profile (low AVG, low OBP, poor sprint speed, and poor defense) screams "bad investment," so obviously I am completely and utterly horrified at the idea of giving him anything close to Chris Davis money. 

FWIW, I don't think he will actually get $150 million in free agency, but a lot of teams are desperate for offense right now, so who knows where the bidding war ends up...

Sports illustrated has become a joke.  If Santander tops $100 mm, it won’t be by much.  Good for him for peaking at the right time, though.  He’s put in the work, and it shows.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, Frobby said:

Sports illustrated has become a joke.  If Santander tops $100 mm, it won’t be by much.  Good for him for peaking at the right time, though.  He’s put in the work, and it shows.  

I completely agree about that.

I could maybe see him getting to, like, 5/$110-125 million if a couple of big market teams get into a bidding war over his services, but a $150 million guarantee seems pretty outlandish. What would that even look like? 5 years at $30 million a year? 6 years at $25 million a year?

That doesn't seem realistic at all to me, but then again, I would have said that him even sniffing 9 figures in free agency was completely absurd back in March but now it seems quite possible, so who knows?

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Yes, the Yankees only got 106 games from Judge in the first season of that deal, not exactly a great outcome and he also turns 33 next April. IMO Judge is within a year or two of serious decline either by injury or just losing athleticism due to age. He's bucking the odds so far...

Judge might be on the Nelson Cruz aging curve.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Judge might be on the Nelson Cruz aging curve.

I would prefer him to follow the Giancarlo Stanton aging curve 

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Judge might be on the Nelson Cruz aging curve.

Interesting, I always thought of Judge as a young guy. Did not realize til now that he and Trout are the same age. Trout had a lot more wear and tear during those 20-24 years. Something to consider in the "college bats" debate (although Judge was a first rounder).