Adley is in an otherworldly slump right now

[webbrick2010]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

He hates Adley.  In fairness to him, he always has.

You guys are so drunk on the kool aide

I don't hate Adley, I rather like his game quite well

I do hate using a 1-1 on a catcher because of the limited games/year limited years of career that they often have.

And time will show me to be correct, as I expect at least 10 of the 2019 first rounders will have more career WAR than Adley.

Before the draft I made my pick of CJ Abrams, in hindsight it is clear that Bobby Witt Jr. was the pick, they both have more WAR than Adley this year and will surpass his career total.

[survivedc]

2 hours ago, MacAdoo said:

Agreed.  He's at the age where he pretty much is what he's going to be.  He's not going be the Buster Posey/Joe Mauer/.315 with 25-30 HR that many thought he would be and were hoping for.  He's going to be closer to .275 with 20-25 HR. 

He reminds me a ton of Jason Varitek given his switch hitting, leadership, intangibles, and good-but-not-elite output.  While it's disappointing given the hype, even those dudes are very rare and hard to come by and you take that 10 out of 10 times. 

Adley is in a slump which has really impacted his season numbers, but he isn't that far off from Posey at present. He certainly hasn't had a peak season yet, though for a few months it looked like that would be this year. 

[Spakman]

3 hours ago, Too Tall said:

When you couple all this with the loss of pitching, it's amazing we are still atop the East. As I said in anothet thread, I think Elias sees this - knows this - and has finally just said, bring up Mayo and see if he can be and light a spark. I thought McCann's Message would be a catalyst. Maybe we will get hot when it counts!

The rest of division is not good besides New York. And until recently they were playing much worse than us. 

[Osornot]

5 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

You guys are so drunk on the kool aide

I don't hate Adley, I rather like his game quite well

I do hate using a 1-1 on a catcher because of the limited games/year limited years of career that they often have.

And time will show me to be correct, as I expect at least 10 of the 2019 first rounders will have more career WAR than Adley.

Before the draft I made my pick of CJ Abrams, in hindsight it is clear that Bobby Witt Jr. was the pick, they both have more WAR than Adley this year and will surpass his career total.

Not a bad argument - btw I have to ask - would you have passed on Skenes?  SPs (limited games/year limited years of career) are worse BEFORE they all break

[glenn__davis]

4 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

You guys are so drunk on the kool aide

I don't hate Adley, I rather like his game quite well

I do hate using a 1-1 on a catcher because of the limited games/year limited years of career that they often have.

And time will show me to be correct, as I expect at least 10 of the 2019 first rounders will have more career WAR than Adley.

Before the draft I made my pick of CJ Abrams, in hindsight it is clear that Bobby Witt Jr. was the pick, they both have more WAR than Adley this year and will surpass his career total.

Actually I don't disagree with a lot of your argument.  Never have.  And even when he's going well I'm generally opposed to an extension for him just due to his age and position, though I don't think it would be malpractice if they do give him one.

But you can't dispute that you do love to come in an make your presence felt when he's not going well.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

You guys are so drunk on the kool aide

I don't hate Adley, I rather like his game quite well

I do hate using a 1-1 on a catcher because of the limited games/year limited years of career that they often have.

And time will show me to be correct, as I expect at least 10 of the 2019 first rounders will have more career WAR than Adley.

Before the draft I made my pick of CJ Abrams, in hindsight it is clear that Bobby Witt Jr. was the pick, they both have more WAR than Adley this year and will surpass his career total.

I only care if Adley produces a couple of World Series rings while he’s an Oriole.   

I said this around the time of the draft, and I’ll say it again: I only care that the guy we draft becomes a very good player.   I’m not going to beat myself up if the guy we draft doesn’t turn out, in hindsight, to be the very best guy we could have chosen.  They’ve been drafting for nearly 60 years and the 1-1 pick has turned out to have the best career of any player in that draft maybe a half-dozen times.  Adley is already in about the 50th percentile of every 1-1 pick ever taken in career WAR and he has many productive years left to play.  So, I’ll never really regret his pick even if Witt or whoever turns out to be better.   
 

[DrungoHazewood]

Catchers get beat up, and it leads to off weeks, months, sometimes years. Johnny Bench was the best catcher ever and he had two months with OPSes under .500, and another five in the .500s.

Ted Simmons had an .880 OPS in 1980, then a .638 the next year. He's in the Hall. In '83 he had a .799, then in '84 a .569.

Yogi never really had an off year until he was old. But had eight months of his career with OPSes under .600. He was MVP in '54, but in April he hit .231/.236/.385.

Mike Piazza was the greatest hitting catcher of all time, but had three separate months of 19+ games with an OPS under .550.

Joe Mauer once went 5-for-45 (.111) in a month. Another where he hit .225 with a .546 OPS.

Gary Carter had a month where he hit .134/.192/.179. Another where he hit .117/.172/200. And another where he hit .171/.198/.316.

Carlton Fisk had a whole year where he OPS'd .600, then played 5-6 more good years in the majors. In April of '83 he hit .154. Had two other months where he hit .149.

Pudge Rodriguez had 18 full months, or the equivalent of three entire seasons, where he OPS'd under .600.

All of those guys are Hall of Famers! You could start to look at the solid, long-career catchers and come with, I don't know... Rick Dempsey who once OPS'd .466 over an entire year.

Adley will be just fine. I'm sure he's a little beat up and a little tired, but it'll get better. Only a crank or a malcontent would say the best catcher in baseball over the past three seasons is a huge miss because he's in a slump.

 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

You guys are so drunk on the kool aide

I don't hate Adley, I rather like his game quite well

I do hate using a 1-1 on a catcher because of the limited games/year limited years of career that they often have.

And time will show me to be correct, as I expect at least 10 of the 2019 first rounders will have more career WAR than Adley.

Before the draft I made my pick of CJ Abrams, in hindsight it is clear that Bobby Witt Jr. was the pick, they both have more WAR than Adley this year and will surpass his career total.

Yea I agree. The catcher thing was my argument at the time too and I liked Witt a lot.

 Now, with that said, does Bobby Witt turn things around like Adley has?  Adley represenrs a value off the field that I don’t think can be measured.

 

 

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Catchers get beat up, and it leads to off weeks, months, sometimes years. Johnny Bench was the best catcher ever and he had two months with OPSes under .500, and another five in the .500s.

Ted Simmons had an .880 OPS in 1980, then a .638 the next year. He's in the Hall. In '83 he had a .799, then in '84 a .569.

Yogi never really had an off year until he was old. But had eight months of his career with OPSes under .600. He was MVP in '54, but in April he hit .231/.236/.385.

Mike Piazza was the greatest hitting catcher of all time, but had three separate months of 19+ games with an OPS under .550.

Joe Mauer once went 5-for-45 (.111) in a month. Another where he hit .225 with a .546 OPS.

Gary Carter had a month where he hit .134/.192/.179. Another where he hit .117/.172/200. And another where he hit .171/.198/.316.

Carlton Fisk had a whole year where he OPS'd .600, then played 5-6 more good years in the majors. In April of '83 he hit .154. Had two other months where he hit .149.

Pudge Rodriguez had 18 full months, or the equivalent of three entire seasons, where he OPS'd under .600.

All of those guys are Hall of Famers! You could start to look at the solid, long-career catchers and come with, I don't know... Rick Dempsey who once OPS'd .466 over an entire year.

Adley will be just fine. I'm sure he's a little beat up and a little tired, but it'll get better. Only a crank or a malcontent would say the best catcher in baseball over the past three seasons is a huge miss because he's in a slump.

 

Wow.  I mean, I guess I knew/realized that but to see it written out is pretty eye-opening.  Just goes to show how much of an impact an above average catcher can be for a team.  Thanks for taking the time to post that. 

[webbrick2010]

9 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Actually I don't disagree with a lot of your argument.  Never have.  And even when he's going well I'm generally opposed to an extension for him just due to his age and position, though I don't think it would be malpractice if they do give him one.

But you can't dispute that you do love to come in an make your presence felt when he's not going well.

True, I should avoid posting when O's/Adley are slumping. Sincerely hope they both come out of it and finish strong.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Actually I don't disagree with a lot of your argument.  Never have.  And even when he's going well I'm generally opposed to an extension for him just due to his age and position, though I don't think it would be malpractice if they do give him one.

But you can't dispute that you do love to come in an make your presence felt when he's not going well.

This has been his shtick for over a decade. Whatever choice the front office makes is stupid. He was the guy who was screaming tear it down, sell everything and rebuild in May-June of 2014. You remember, the year they won the division by 12 games?

Some people are only happy when they're taking contrarian positions, when it's them against the world.

[UMDTerrapins]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I agree. The catcher thing was my argument at the time too and I liked Witt a lot.

 Now, with that said, does Bobby Witt turn things around like Adley has?  Adley represents a value off the field that I don’t think can be measured.

Sure it can. A .587 winning percentage since he was called up.    They didn't win his first game, but it was clear very quickly that he ushered in the beginning of a new era. All the concerns about drafting catchers are legit, and it's worth considering with Basallo. Adley is and was a different kind of player.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Fiver6565 said:

Not sure if you were implying this or not, but my take has nothing to do with Elias being god, and everything to do with people overreacting to relatively small sample sizes of performance like it means someone's career is over.  Players and teams slump.  It doesn't mean the season is over or the player sucks.  I mean Gunnar has had a few bad weeks after STARTING THE ALL STAR GAME AT SHORTSTOP,  yet there was a long-running thread here wondering if we had a 'SS problem', in which a debate began about whether Gunnar needed to move to third base.  I mean, c'mon.  That's not an education opinion, its a ridiculous rant.

I'm not arguing some posters start over reaction threads or make over reaction posts, but i think when you get into most of the threads, you find more reasonable takes backed by statistics. 

Saying that, this is not an over reaction thread but a thread highlighting Adley's long slump.

As for my take, Adley needs to be moved down the lineup until he starts to hit again. Can't have an automatic out at #2.  

[Say O!]

10 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

You guys are so drunk on the kool aide

I don't hate Adley, I rather like his game quite well

I do hate using a 1-1 on a catcher because of the limited games/year limited years of career that they often have.

And time will show me to be correct, as I expect at least 10 of the 2019 first rounders will have more career WAR than Adley.

Before the draft I made my pick of CJ Abrams, in hindsight it is clear that Bobby Witt Jr. was the pick, they both have more WAR than Adley this year and will surpass his career total.

10?…now the 2019 draft was extremely stacked but that’s just obnoxious.

Adley has a pretty commanding lead at the point (Witt Jr aside).

bWAR career leaders (thru yesterday)

Adley (1-1) 12.6

Witt (1-2) 12.4

Kirby (1-20) 8.2

Stott (1-14) 7.8

Manoah (1-11) 7.5

Carroll (1-16) 7.2

Abrams (1-6) 7.0

Greene (1-5) 7.0

Volpe (1-30) 6.1

Lodolo (1-7) 4.2

Jung (1-8) 3.0

other guys like Vaughn (1-3), Bleday (1-4), Busch (1-31) are in MLB but poor production thus far.

And while your comment was career, I would suggest to limit the WAR count to just the 6 team control years since rest is FA eligible. 

[Fiver6565]

20 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Catchers get beat up, and it leads to off weeks, months, sometimes years. Johnny Bench was the best catcher ever and he had two months with OPSes under .500, and another five in the .500s.

Ted Simmons had an .880 OPS in 1980, then a .638 the next year. He's in the Hall. In '83 he had a .799, then in '84 a .569.

Yogi never really had an off year until he was old. But had eight months of his career with OPSes under .600. He was MVP in '54, but in April he hit .231/.236/.385.

Mike Piazza was the greatest hitting catcher of all time, but had three separate months of 19+ games with an OPS under .550.

Joe Mauer once went 5-for-45 (.111) in a month. Another where he hit .225 with a .546 OPS.

Gary Carter had a month where he hit .134/.192/.179. Another where he hit .117/.172/200. And another where he hit .171/.198/.316.

Carlton Fisk had a whole year where he OPS'd .600, then played 5-6 more good years in the majors. In April of '83 he hit .154. Had two other months where he hit .149.

Pudge Rodriguez had 18 full months, or the equivalent of three entire seasons, where he OPS'd under .600.

All of those guys are Hall of Famers! You could start to look at the solid, long-career catchers and come with, I don't know... Rick Dempsey who once OPS'd .466 over an entire year.

Adley will be just fine. I'm sure he's a little beat up and a little tired, but it'll get better. Only a crank or a malcontent would say the best catcher in baseball over the past three seasons is a huge miss because he's in a slump.

 

What an amazing and reasonable post this is.  Kudos to you.  These are actual numbers proving what I was saying before - players slump.  ALL players slump.  That doesn't mean you play them less, drop them in the order, start questioning your draft decisions/process.  You just ride it out.