Thinking about next year

[DocJJ]

I know, it may seem strange to think about next season when we are just past the halfway point of this current year.  The way I size up this year- injuries laid waste to an outstanding starting rotation and the bullpen has been shaky and volatile.  The hitting tends to disappear for stretches too.  We will contend for a playoff spot and I hope we get some luck for a change, but I see a lot of flaws and things that will hinder us...

 

Looking ahead to next season we have 2 major issues right off the bat- 

We stand to lose our #1 Starting Pitcher 

We stand to lose our #1 Power hitter

 

And I was looking at the list of available free agents next year- I looked at Starting Pitching, Outfielders, and Relievers.  The list is not very attractive at first glance.  I see a lot of old people, injured people, and not very good people.  And I think Elias traded away anyone of value this year at the deadline, so I don't think we'll be able to swing a big trade easily...

 

I hope the new ownership can throw the kitchen sink at Burnes and Santander.  We'll hopefully get Bautista back in the Pen, and Bradish back in the rotation?  We'll still probably need to add a reliever and starting pitcher, and I think we'll need an outfielder too?

[CaptainRedbeard]

They are going to need at least 1, and preferably 2, SP. Maybe they’ll retain Burnes, but even if they do they should add another.

I think Santander is gone and they’ll slot Kjerstad into RF, but maybe they plan to trade Kjerstad for a SP and retain Santander. I don’t see how both Santander and Kjerstad could be here next year. 

Assuming Mayo is a 1B/DH along with O’Hearn, and a starting OF of Cowser/Mullins/Kjerstad (or Santander instead of Kjerstad), that would put Mountcastle, Urias and Mateo on the bench. However, that would mean O’Hearn/Mateo are the reserve OF, so they’re likely going to want a righty bench OF (keep Slater or add someone similar), and trade one of Mountcastle/Urias/Mateo. That’s probably Mountcastle or Urias, and which one could depend on whether they are comfortable with Mayo as a backup 3B next year. 

They’ll also need to decide on a backup C, retain McCann or bring in someone else. Hunt and Handley haven’t performed well enough in AAA to give it to them.

The pen is interesting, since they have option/nontender decisions on nearly everybody - Kimbrel, Domínguez, Coulombe, Soto, Perez, Webb. I’m assuming they let Kimbrel go and keep the other 5, who along with Bautista, Cano and Suarez (out of options) give you 8 guys that can’t be optioned (or won’t, like Bautista and Cano). I believe Akin and Smith will both still have an option. Baker and Vespi were the primary R/L Norfolk shuttle guys this year, but they’ll be out of options next year so that could be Smith and Akin.

I actually don’t think they’ll be looking to add a RP, unless they’re not bringing back multiple guys in addition to Kimbrel. 

[Gentile4]

This off-season will be a litmus test for the new ownership team. I certainly agree that we should back up the money truck to Burnes' house, but we may have to take our chances losing Santander, much as I'd like to keep him as well. I would disagree that Elias traded away anything of value.

[clapdiddy]

18 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I know, it may seem strange to think about next season when we are just past the halfway point of this current year.  The way I size up this year- injuries laid waste to an outstanding starting rotation and the bullpen has been shaky and volatile.  The hitting tends to disappear for stretches too.  We will contend for a playoff spot and I hope we get some luck for a change, but I see a lot of flaws and things that will hinder us...

 

Looking ahead to next season we have 2 major issues right off the bat- 

We stand to lose our #1 Starting Pitcher 

We stand to lose our #1 Power hitter

 

And I was looking at the list of available free agents next year- I looked at Starting Pitching, Outfielders, and Relievers.  The list is not very attractive at first glance.  I see a lot of old people, injured people, and not very good people.  And I think Elias traded away anyone of value this year at the deadline, so I don't think we'll be able to swing a big trade easily...

 

I hope the new ownership can throw the kitchen sink at Burnes and Santander.  We'll hopefully get Bautista back in the Pen, and Bradish back in the rotation?  We'll still probably need to add a reliever and starting pitcher, and I think we'll need an outfielder too?

My take:

1.  We will acquire another #1 (or reasonable facsimile) via trade.

2.  We will replace Santander with someone internally unless he takes a VERY team friendly deal.

3.  I think we need more than 1 reliever.  Preferably 1 VERY good and 2 good ones.  

[HowAboutThat]

The biggest problem is that after 1.5 seasons of very consistent play, without a single long losing streak, the team is now playing terrible fundamentals.

Pitching injuries have downgraded the Arms and reinforcements haven’t made up for the losses, but that doesn’t explain the horrible defense, inconsistent offense, bad communication, etc. 

there have been no coaching changes, so something else is wrong, and that needs to be addressed.

[DocJJ]

2 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

The biggest problem is that after 1.5 seasons of very consistent play, without a single long losing streak, the team is now playing terrible fundamentals.

Pitching injuries have downgraded the Arms and reinforcements haven’t made up for the losses, but that doesn’t explain the horrible defense, inconsistent offense, bad communication, etc. 

there have been no coaching changes, so something else is wrong, and that needs to be addressed.

Agree.

 

We "seemed" like more of a contender LAST season than this season...

[sportsfan8703]

Why can't Rubenstein pay Burnes and Santander?  Problem solved.  We can all sleep easy.  

[LookitsPuck]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why can't Rubenstein pay Burnes and Santander?  Problem solved.  We can all sleep easy.  

Burnes is most likely going to make $40-$45m/year, just a heads up. Current O's payroll is currently at $107m. The highest we saw it go under any Angelos was around $175m in 2017. Now, that was 7 years ago. That'd be about $230m in 2025 dollars accounting for inflation. I really don't think Rubenstein will exceed $200m. But I could see him going around $180-$190m give or take.

So, that gives the O's about $80m in spending money on the top end. If you allocate $45m of that to Burnes, that leaves $35m to pay Santander, extend some of the young guys, get another SP, etc.

Seems unlikely short of Rubenstein exceed $200m year. And I just don't see him doubling the payroll after 1 year. 

[Gunnar]

17 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Burnes is most likely going to make $40-$45m/year, just a heads up. Current O's payroll is currently at $107m. The highest we saw it go under any Angelos was around $175m in 2017. Now, that was 7 years ago. That'd be about $230m in 2025 dollars accounting for inflation. I really don't think Rubenstein will exceed $200m. But I could see him going around $180-$190m give or take.

So, that gives the O's about $80m in spending money on the top end. If you allocate $45m of that to Burnes, that leaves $35m to pay Santander, extend some of the young guys, get another SP, etc.

Seems unlikely short of Rubenstein exceed $200m year. And I just don't see him doubling the payroll after 1 year. 

Ruby ain't getting any younger. If he wants to win a World Series this next 3-4 years is his best chance to do so, and if I were him I wouldn't limit myself to X% year-over-year payroll increase.  I'm hopeful he will do what it takes to maximize the chance of winning, which includes signing Burnes or an equivalent.

[Too Tall]

I understand the lust for Burnes but I just have a personal bias (remember I'm old) against that much for a starting pitcher and particularly one approaching 30 who has trouble holding runners on base. It's worked this year and I am grateful for Burnes, but I'm not willing to gamble one fourth of my payroll that it will hold for four to five more.

Tony for three years and 60 to 70 million. That's a gamble I'd take. No more. 

Tis why I've said before, this off season will be one of the most interesting and challenging on record. 

[Just Regular]

I dunno...I think we can do most of the 26-man roster right now.    We might not keep both Ryans, or pay both Seranthony and Soto, but they are at least possibles.    I think in the early season cool it makes sense to pitch some of the SP5 candidates to see what you have.

C - Adley, Blake Hunt

IF - Mayo, Holliday, Gunnar, Westburg, Mountcastle, O'Hearn

OF - Cowser, Mullins, Kjerstad, OF4, OF5

SP - Eflin, Grayson, Rogers, Kremer, Povich  (ready to stream McDermott, Young as needed, or promote Suarez like now)

Long - Suarez, Cionel, Webb, G. Soto

Late - Felix, Seranthony, Cano, Coulombe

A real 4th outfielder for Slater's present role is maybe a prominent MLB need.    Each Opening Day to the trade deadline Clubs get a lot of fresh information on pitchers to digest, particularly for Elias in 2025 how Bradish looks.

I've joked in 2024 Corbin Burnes was the replacement for 2023's Kyle Gibson and Felix Bautista.    Getting the real Felix Bautista back in 2025, I think Elias may feel like he can gear back from Burnes to Eflin or Grayson as the #1.

Even though they have been meh, I think Elias conserving both Povich and McDermott at the deadline is a clue how early 2025 innings could get soaked up.    There isn't much for those guys to do at Norfolk again, except get moldy.    They might be able to play.    Elias will I think value information what post-surgical Felix and Bradish are, and he won't have that in the off-season.

Edited August 15 by Just Regular

[Moose Milligan]

29 minutes ago, Gunnar said:

 If he wants to win a World Series this next 3-4 years is his best chance to do so, 

Assuming you meant "this is his best chance to do so."

Which...we don't know that.  No one knew where this team would be 3-4 years ago, so how can we know that this right now is his best opportunity to win a World Series over the next 3-4 seasons?

3 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

I understand the lust for Burnes but I just have a personal bias (remember I'm old) against that much for a starting pitcher and particularly one approaching 30 who has trouble holding runners on base. It's worked this year and I am grateful for Burnes, but I'm not willing to gamble one fourth of my payroll that it will hold for four to five more.

Tony for three years and 60 to 70 million. That's a gamble I'd take. No more. 

Tis why I've said before, this off season will be one of the most interesting and challenging on record. 

I'd have a hard time spending 40-45 million for Burnes...I don't care about his age, nor the holding runners on base...his strikeout rate is declining, which he says is by design but I don't know if I believe that.

I'd gamble on Tony, but a lot of people are going to be pissed if we sign him and he gets off to his usual slow start next April and May...people seem to have forgotten that already.  He wasn't exactly a favorite around here in May when his OPS for the month was .708.  

It'll be an interesting offseason, that's for sure.

[Gunnar]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Assuming you meant "this is his best chance to do so."

Which...we don't know that.  No one knew where this team would be 3-4 years ago, so how can we know that this right now is his best opportunity to win a World Series over the next 3-4 seasons?

I meant to say the next 3-4 years (2024-2028 or so) is going to be his best window of WS opportunity, based on control of core players. So he should be open to much higher payroll in that window to capitalize on that opportunity.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why can't Rubenstein pay Burnes and Santander?  Problem solved.  We can all sleep easy.  

IMO, in view of our long term pitching needs, I just don't think it's a good idea to put any resources into OF/DH. I love Santander but that's not a good use of resources. Kjerstad/Mayo may not replace all of Santander's production, but they will replace most of it at much lower cost. 

If Rubenstein has an extra $20M to burn, I'd spend it on an Eovaldi/Montgomery type.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Gunnar said:

I meant to say the next 3-4 years (2024-2028 or so) is going to be his best window of WS opportunity, based on control of core players. So he should be open to much higher payroll in that window to capitalize on that opportunity.

Fair, and I don't necessarily disagree but we also don't know what this team will look like in 2028.  A lot of stuff can happen between now and then.