Some recent age 29 comps for Anthony Santander (HR focused)

[Frobby]

With all the talk about Anthony Santander's market value and whether the O's should extend him, I thought I'd take a look at some recent players who were somewhat comparable power hitters at age 29, and see how they did the next 5 years.   For my project, I looked at the last 13 players who both (1) hit 25+ homers at age 29, and (2) had hit al least 100 homers in their age 25-29 seasons.  For this exercise, I only looked at homers, nothing else.   All the players I looked at had their age 29 season between 2016 and 2019, and therefore have had the chance to play at least 5 seasons since their age 29 season.   Here's a chart showing their HR results (columns represent homers at age 29, career homers through age 29, homers at ages 25-29, homers at ages 30-34; and the last year the player hit 25+ homers):

Name 			Age 29	Cum. 29	25-29	Next 5	Last 25+
Anthony Santander	36	147	126		
George Springer		39	160	140	96	32
Freddie Freeman		38	227	141	111	33
Anthony Rendon		34	136	108	22	29
Jose Altuve		31	128	107	96	32
Anthony Rizzo		27	218	147	85	32
Mike Moustakas		28	147	110	68	30
Khris Davis		43	145	145	76	31
Paul Goldschmidt	36	176	148	139	35
Justin Upton		35	256	148	69	30
Kyle Seager		27	153	130	89	33
Brian Dozier		42	117	117	75	30
Chris Carter		41	150	147	8	29
Jay Bruce		33	241	141	78	32

When comparing the last five years to the next five, keep in mind that in all cases, the next 5 years included the COVID-shortened season, so it's more like 4.37 seasons than 5 full seasons.   Also, for the most recent 5 comps (Springer, Freeman, Rendon, Altuve and Rizzo), 2024 is the fifth season, so they still have 40ish games to add to their totals.

Still, I think you can make some general observations here.  Even if you adjusted for the short 2020 season and what's left of this season, 10 of the 13 players hit substantially fewer homers at ages 30-34 than they did at 25-29.  At the same time, 11 of the 13 did manage to play another 5 years after age 29, and one of the two who didn't was Kyle Seager, who chose to retire at 33 when his Mariners contract expired, despite having hit 35 homers that season.   The other who didn't was Chris Carter, who dropped all the way from 41 homers at age 29 to 8 at age 30, and then never played again.  10 of the 13 players never hit 25+ homers after age 32.

My take is that you've got about a 50/50 shot that a player like Santander will remain a solid power hitter through age 32; after that, your odds drop pretty precipitously.   And, there certainly is some bust potential.   So, if you are going to sign a player like Santander for more than three years, you'd better be pricing the AAV to get a good bit of surplus value in the first three years, because it's likely to turn ugly after that, despite the occasional exception.

 

Edited August 17 by Frobby

[banks703]

As always, this is good data. Thanks for putting it together. 
 

Off topic from Ant, this shows me how underrated Freddie Freeman is in the game.

I hold Ant in a little higher regard than most but I think that may be because of his ability to hit from both sides of the plate and that he seems to really be a glue guy who Hyde continually praises as such.

I’m on record as hoping that they can retain him. I have less confidence in Kjerstad than a lot of our folks. I don’t think there’s a guy currently in the system * who can come close to doing what Ant does for the O’s as a whole. 

Edited August 17 by banks703

[OriolesMagic83]

Good analysis, Frobby.  Your study highlights that giving Santander more than 3 years is a bad idea.  Santander might be the 2nd best offensive player after Soto. Some,team is going to overpay in years and money to lock him up.  I will be surprised if he doesn't get 5 yrs/$120 mill or more.

[Too Tall]

Excellent work as usual.  I assume data driven front offices are doing similar work and analysis like this for pitchers as well. Like comparing the 24 to 28 years for successful starters or relievers to their 29 to 33 age years as an example. This is why, I like to believe the calculus for FA signings - pitchers particularly - is going to change to probably shorter number of years and higher annual value. This past year with the two Boras clients may beome more of the norm. Same with players like Tony. But, there probably will always be owners or rich franchises that can afford the risk of dead money and use that to gain a contract. 

[BRobinsonfan]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

With all the talk about Anthony Santander's market value and whether the O's should extend him, I thought I'd take a look at some recent players who were somewhat comparable power hitters at age 29, and see how they did the next 5 years.   For my project, I looked at the last 13 players who both (1) hit 25+ homers at age 29, and (2) had hit al least 100 homers in their age 25-29 seasons.  For this exercise, I only looked at homers, nothing else.   All the players I looked at had their age 29 season between 2016 and 2019, and therefore have had the chance to play at least 5 seasons since their age 29 season.   Here's a chart showing their HR results (columns represent homers at age 29, career homers through age 29, homers at ages 25-29, homers at ages 30-34; and the last year the player hit 25+ homers):

Name 			Age 29	Cum. 29	25-29	Next 5	Last 25+
Anthony Santander	36	147	126		
George Springer		39	160	140	96	32
Freddie Freeman		38	227	141	111	33
Anthony Rendon		34	136	108	22	29
Jose Altuve		31	128	107	96	32
Anthony Rizzo		27	218	147	85	32
Mike Moustakas		28	147	110	68	30
Khris Davis		43	145	145	76	31
Paul Goldschmidt	36	176	148	139	35
Justin Upton		35	256	148	69	30
Kyle Seager		27	153	130	89	33
Brian Dozier		42	117	117	75	30
Chris Carter		41	150	147	8	29
Jay Bruce		33	241	141	78	32

When comparing the last five years to the next five, keep in mind that in all cases, the next 5 years included the COVID-shortened season, so it's more like 4.37 seasons than 5 full seasons.   Also, for the most recent 5 comps (Springer, Freeman, Rendon, Altuve and Rizzo), 2024 is the fifth season, so they still have 40ish games to add to their totals.

Still, I think you can make some general observations here.  Even if you adjusted for the short 2020 season and what's left of this season, 10 of the 13 players hit substantially fewer homers at ages 30-34 than they did at 25-29.  At the same time, 11 of the 13 did manage to play another 5 years after age 29, and one of the two who didn't was Kyle Seager, who chose to retire at 33 when his Mariners contract expired, despite having hit 35 homers that season.   The other who didn't was Chris Carter, who dropped all the way from 41 homers at age 29 to 8 at age 30, and then never played again.  10 of the 13 players never hit 25+ homers after age 32.

My take is that you've got about a 50/50 shot that a player like Santander will remain a solid power hitter through age 32; after that, your odds drop pretty precipitously.   And, there certainly is some bust potential.   So, if you are going to sign a player like Santander for more than three years, you'd better be pricing the AAV to get a good bit of surplus value in the first three years, because it's likely to turn ugly after that, despite the occasional exception.

 

This is excellent data and analysis.  But you're still not factoring in for Orioles Magic!  Anthony Santander will be the curve buster.  

Edited August 17 by BRobinsonfan

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, banks703 said:

As always, this is good data. Thanks for putting it together. 
 

Off topic from Ant, this shows me how underrated Freddie Freeman is in the game.

I hold Ant in a little higher regard than most but I think that may be because of his ability to hit from both sides of the plate and that he seems to really be a glue guy who Hyde continually praises as such.

I’m on record as hoping that they can retain him. I have less confidence in Kjerstad than a lot of our folks. I don’t think there’s a guy currently in the system * who can come close to doing what Ant does for the O’s as a whole. 

Are you serious? Once established Mayo and Kjerstad should be 30-40 homer guys year in and out. If they aren’t we’ve gotten unlucky imo.

[Jammer7]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Are you serious? Once established Mayo and Kjerstad should be 30-40 homer guys year in and out. If they aren’t we’ve gotten unlucky imo.

Maybe. Until they are, they are not. Santander is. If we truly are in a win now mode, we should re-sign him. It’s not my money, though. 

Mayo, Kjerstad and Basallo are a few years away from being the hitters they should eventually be. We are being spoiled to an extent by what Adley, Gunnar and Westburg have done. Perhaps add Cowser to the list on a bit lower tier just yet. There is a learning curve that Tony has gone through, and it takes time. Our young stars strike out way too much. Good numbers otherwise, but the K’s are killing us at times. 

[Roll Tide]

18 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Maybe. Until they are, they are not. Santander is. If we truly are in a win now mode, we should re-sign him. It’s not my money, though. 

Mayo, Kjerstad and Basallo are a few years away from being the hitters they should eventually be. We are being spoiled to an extent by what Adley, Gunnar and Westburg have done. Perhaps add Cowser to the list on a bit lower tier just yet. There is a learning curve that Tony has gone through, and it takes time. Our young stars strike out way too much. Good numbers otherwise, but the K’s are killing us at times. 

If Elias lets Santander walk to make room for Kjerstad or Mayo in the lineup I trust him. I’d be far more disappointed if he lets Burnes walk as we are bar heavy.

Edited August 17 by Roll Tide

[banks703]

29 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Are you serious? Once established Mayo and Kjerstad should be 30-40 homer guys year in and out. If they aren’t we’ve gotten unlucky imo.

I have a high confidence in Mayo becoming someone who resembles that 30-40 guy but I am not sold on HK. I see a lot of Adam Dunn in his game, which is only so valuable in today’s game. Frankly, neither of them can step right in to replace what Ant does though. Perhaps in time but I wouldn’t hedge a season in this championship window on it. 

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I have a high confidence in Mayo becoming someone who resembles that 30-40 guy but I am not sold on HK. I see a lot of Adam Dunn in his game, which is only so valuable in today’s game. Frankly, neither of them can step right in to replace what Ant does though. Perhaps in time but I wouldn’t hedge a season in this championship window on it. 

Really after a reset Holliday is raking. This isn’t the 1st time the Orioles have sent a guy out for a stint and he’s comeback strong. I trust the process as far as preparing our kids to play. We have plenty of offense in Gunnar, Westburg, Holliday, Rutschman, Cowser, Mounty/O’Hearn. And you’d have Mayo and Kjerstad on the doorstep. Kjerstad was OPSing .800+ before he got plunked on the head. If your not willing to hedge on our young offensive players you must be super optimistic about the rotation without Burnes next year.

[banks703]

17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Really after a reset Holliday is raking. This isn’t the 1st time the Orioles have sent a guy out for a stint and he’s comeback strong. I trust the process as far as preparing our kids to play. We have plenty of offense in Gunnar, Westburg, Holliday, Rutschman, Cowser, Mounty/O’Hearn. And you’d have Mayo and Kjerstad on the doorstep. Kjerstad was OPSing .800+ before he got plunked on the head. If your not willing to hedge on our young offensive players you must be super optimistic about the rotation without Burnes next year.

I just don’t love HK as a prospect. Big power but I don’t see enough contact to get excited about him against ML pitching. Plus he is a terrible defensive outfielder who will likely end up as a DH, which means that he would occupy a spot in the lineup that should go to a regular who needs a spell from the field. 

[Hallas]

I'm thinking back to bat speed data and TangoTiger mentioned that from age 31 forward bat speed takes a pretty big drop.  The fact that power hitters are by and large less successful starting at age 32 reinforces this.

[O-The-Memories]

The problem is that Santander isn't good defensively now, and that will continue to decline in the future. His speed isn't good now, and will only decline. It's not like he provides hitting for a high average or OBP either. In the event he stops hitting HR's he's a guy that wouldn't be on a roster for any other reason. That scares me, just like Trumbo. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, banks703 said:

I have a high confidence in Mayo becoming someone who resembles that 30-40 guy but I am not sold on HK. I see a lot of Adam Dunn in his game, which is only so valuable in today’s game. Frankly, neither of them can step right in to replace what Ant does though. Perhaps in time but I wouldn’t hedge a season in this championship window on it. 

Where are you and a few others getting “Ant” from?   Why drop the S?  Every time I see this it takes me a minute to remember who the poster is talking about.  We don’t Henderson “End” or Rutschman “Uts.”  It makes no sense to me. 

I agree that it’s unlikely that Kjerstad will fully replicate Santander’s production in his first full major league season.  It could happen, but odds are against it.  Sometimes you have to bite that bullet, though, due to longer term considerations.  
 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Where are you and a few others getting “Ant” from?   Why drop the S?  Every time I see this it takes me a minute to remember who the poster is talking about.  We don’t Henderson “End” or Rutschman “Uts.”  It makes no sense to me. 

I agree that it’s unlikely that Kjerstad will fully replicate Santander’s production in his first full major league season.  It could happen, but odds are against it.  Sometimes you have to bite that bullet, though, due to longer term considerations.  
 

Anthony.