The Mets series, 8/19-21

[Moose Milligan]

If anything I’d really like to see a return to that ultra patient plate approach they had a few weeks ago. Drive up these lefty starters pitch counts and get to the Mets bullpen. 

Seems like they’ve strayed from that a little bit. 

[Rbiggs2525]

Important series for our newcomers. Slater and Jiminez will play big roles in this series. My guess is they may give Gunnar a day off and start Soto one game too. Mountcastle looks close to breaking through so hopefully this is the series.

[Sports Guy]

The Os have a lot of NL games coming up. Let’s hope they can turn around the poor play vs the NL this year.

[Sports Guy]

Need to get a series win. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

If anything I’d really like to see a return to that ultra patient plate approach they had a few weeks ago. Drive up these lefty starters pitch counts and get to the Mets bullpen. 

Seems like they’ve strayed from that a little bit. 

I agree with this. I felt like the last few games at least, everyone seemed a little trigger happy. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

If anything I’d really like to see a return to that ultra patient plate approach they had a few weeks ago. Drive up these lefty starters pitch counts and get to the Mets bullpen. 

Seems like they’ve strayed from that a little bit. 

Yesterday the O’s first two hitters of the game saw 13 pitches and I thought we were in for a patient approach.  Next thing I knew, Crawford had gotten through 5 innings on 63 pitches.   

[Baseball fandom]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

That’s what Red Sox fans probably were thinking about the Game 2 matchup in that last series.  But they thought wrong.

Right but man Rogers has been what I and many thought he would be terrible.  Yes that Burns gane was so frustrating. 

[Pat Kelly]

Os play poorly against NL teams (especially middling ones) and LHP.   Mets are just above .500 and starting 3 LHPs.   Predicting a sweep by the Mets.

[dtk9119]

The way this team has been trending, i am thinking 4-6 in the next 10 games. 2/3 losses to NYM and LAD while splitting w/ HOU. I would love to be wrong but have seen no evidence of that in the last couple months.

Agree tho, BIG week coming up for Slater and Jimenez.

[jabba72]

4 minutes ago, Pat Kelly said:

Os play poorly against NL teams (especially middling ones) and LHP.   Mets are just above .500 and starting 3 LHPs.   Predicting a sweep by the Mets.

The team as a whole has a .774 OPS against LHP. Now having Westburg out hurts with that, but overall they've hit better vs LHP than RHP (769 OPS).

 

[Say O!]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

The O’s are on their way to New York to face the Mets, who at 64-60 are fighting for a wild card spot.  The Mets had a very strong July (17-10) but have been treading water in August (7-9).  The pitching matchups are:

David Peterson (7-1, 3.04 ERA) vs. Trevor Rogers (2-11, 4.89).  Peterson threw 3 scoreless innings against the O’s last year as he was being transitioned back to being a starter.   Rogers faced the Mets while with the Phillies on July 21, allowing 2 runs (1 earned) in 4.2 IP.

Jose Quintana (6-8, 4.26) vs. Dean Kremer (5-9, 4.48).  Quintana took a tough loss against the O’s last year, allowing 2 ER in 6 IP.  Kremer allowed 2 ER in 5.1 IP when he saw the Mets last year.

Sean Manaea (9-5, 3.46) vs. Zac Eflin (9-7, 3.72).  Manaea has only faced the Orioles twice in his career, and was clobbered both times, but the most recent was 2021, so not real relevant.  Eflin has faced the Mets a whopping 15 times in his career, and got walloped twice when he last saw them in 2022.

The Mets have a middle of the pack bullpen, with a 4.05 ERA, 17th in MLB.  The O’s are two spots below them at 4.14.   However, the Mets bullpen has been tough since the all star break (3.48 ERA) while the O’s have been struggling mightily (5.28).   So, it seems advantage: Mets.

Offensively, the O’s come in averaging 5.05 runs per game (3rd in MLB), the Mets 4.80 (10th).  The O’s still lead the majors at 120 OPS+, while the Mets are 5th at 111.   The O’s have been the hotter offense since the break, out scoring the Mets 156-128 in 29 games for each team.  

On paper, the Mets have the pitching matchup advantage in game 1, while the other two games look like toss-ups.  It would be nice to find a way to win this series.  

Re: Mets pitching. Peterson is an ERA imposter as both xERA and FIP much worse. He sports high LOB of 82% and his K rate has dropped from over 10 per 9 inn to 7 this year.  Quintana to me is cooked.  Manea having somewhat resurgent season, having flipped from 4 seamer to 2 seamer dominant.  Notably both Manea and Peterson have reverse splits (RHB do better than LHB) in 2024 sample size.

Despite Mets kinda falling off a bit in August so far with 7-9 record, ESPN analytics shows Mets favored 59% (Mon), 57% (Tues), 54% (Wed).

 

 

[Pat Kelly]

41 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

The team as a whole has a .774 OPS against LHP. Now having Westburg out hurts with that, but overall they've hit better vs LHP than RHP (769 OPS).

 

After opening the year 14-5 in games started by southpaws, the Orioles are 4-10 versus them since.

[Too Tall]

You are only as good as the next days starter. Hence, I worry! 

[Just Regular]

Braves injury season of misery continues as Austin Riley has a Jordan Westburg similar injury except a few weeks later so he's pretty much done as Atlanta tries to hold off the Mets-led field for NL6.

[Aristotelian]

Ugh, I forgot the Mets have JD Martinez. He's gonna destroy us isn't he?