The Dull Orange Machine

[JR Oriole]

For most of this year, I have been trying to think about why (even with a good record) this team has been so unpleasant to watch. I suppose it is obvious that playing .460 ball for over half of the season may be part of it, and the injuries have definitely been deflating. But this has been an extremely frustrating and dull team to watch for so long, that I wanted to dig a little deeper into the numbers.

They have played 100 games since Game # 50, when they trailed Chicago 3-0 and won 5-3, with 5 runs in the 8th.  In that 100 games (from May 26 – today), they have:
•    Had only 1 walk-off win……the game against the Yankees where Kimbrel gave up a 3-run bomb to Ben Rice in the 9th, only to have the Yankees save him and us with horrible defensive plays in the bottom of the inning.
•    Come back only 2 times (!!!) when trailing after 6 innings……Game 115 against Toronto when they trailed 3-2 and Game 130 against Houston when they trailed 5-2 and Santander hit the grand slam.

To go that long of a stretch with so few games that actually make you feel good about the team is incredible. I think that is a big part of it.  Just so few momentum building, exciting wins or even wins that make you feel excited about where the team is going. They are the polar opposite of the 2012 team, which was a blast to follow the entire year with so many great moments.

Now of course, their offensive struggles are so bad now that the team has become close to unwatchable. They have won 3 of their last 10 and those 3 wins were all by 2 runs.  Even before that, if you take out the White Sox and Colorado series, they had not won a game by more than 4 runs since the end of July. 

Much has been made about their inability to make productive outs and bring guys in with sacrifice flies, ground outs, etc.  And it seems like statistically we may not be that much worse than other teams in that regard (although lately, we have to be near dead last).  But I think this just gets accentuated by the fact that we never have big innings where we score enough runs that failures in these spots don’t matter as much.  Other teams seem able to have big innings, so I know it isn't impossible.  And almost every day, you have at least 4 – 5 teams that hang 7+ runs on their opponent and many of them objectively have lesser talent than even our current healthy roster.

I could check the stats from prior years, but I don’t recall even our really bad teams struggling THIS much to score runs every single day.  So I don’t know whether it is mental (which has to be a big part of it), or whether the offensive philosophy being taught to our players is just really flawed (which I also think is a big part of it), but there is no way our team should be this bad offensively. And there is no way that trailing in the 6th should be “ballgame” for us this often. 

A couple of months ago, I used to marvel at how teams could win more than 3 games in a row because we couldn’t do it.  Now, I marvel when we score so much as a single run in any game. Sad.   
 

[joelala]

Good post. It really is a shocking level of ineptitude for a team with so much talent. 

[SilverRocket]

The batting went downhill when injuries put us from a full 1-through-9 lineup into a 1-through-6. Some individual players had slumps in the good months too, but we could withstand that. Now we can't.

Jimenez, the current version of Holliday, Rivera, Livan Soto, McCann, the current version of Mayo, Austin Slater, Nick Maton. Every single lineup in September has featured 3 players from that list.

[Fiver6565]

Good thread title. This team is the worst thing you want to see as a fan - boring AF. 

[Moose Milligan]

54 minutes ago, joelala said:

Good post. It really is a shocking level of ineptitude for a team with so much talent. 

A lot of that talent is on the IL. 

[Fiver6565]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

A lot of that talent is on the IL. 

But a lot of it isn’t. Injuries have something to do with this, no doubt, but they still shouldn’t be this inept at scoring runs. 

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

But a lot of it isn’t. Injuries have something to do with this, no doubt, but they still shouldn’t be this inept at scoring runs. 

I don’t totally disagree. But the offense has to be more that Gunnar and Adley. 

We know Tony is prone to nasty cold streaks. Looks like he’s in one. 

Cedric is still good, but he’s not the 30-30 guy he was.  He’s also prone to big slumps. 

O’Hearn has had his moments here but might be turning into a pumpkin.  He’s most likely a platoon guy, pinch hitter and is exposed playing every day.

Holliday isn’t ready.  Mayo isn’t ready.

Cowser is a whiff machine.

Jimenez is a joke. 

So…yeah, we’ve got some talent still playing, but it’s either very flawed talent or guys that haven’t reached their potential yet. It’s guys that we know and we like but still have some significant shortcomings.  Not having key guys in the lineup exposed these shortcomings even more. 
 

[TopGunnar]

1 hour ago, joelala said:

Good post. It really is a shocking level of ineptitude for a team with so much talent. 

I think we’re at the point now where we have to question the talent. Maybe some of these guys are a tad over hyped. 

[Tony-OH]

Obviously teams that win are always more fun than teams that don't, and as the OP pointed out, this team has been below .500 over half a season at this point. 

The lack of hitting is pretty infuriating at this point. This is not a slump. This team has to be the least clutch team I've watched. When they get RISP with less than two outs you expect them not to score. If they get behind and it's late, you assume a loss. 

They do nothing that is enjoyable to watch other than pop a few homers. 

I honestly have a hard time watching them at this point. We all hope they will get healthy and get better, but it's sure is one of the more eclectic teams that I've seen over the years.

 

 

[Moose Milligan]

57 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Obviously teams that win are always more fun than teams that don't, and as the OP pointed out, this team has been below .500 over half a season at this point. 

The lack of hitting is pretty infuriating at this point. This is not a slump. This team has to be the least clutch team I've watched. When they get RISP with less than two outs you expect them not to score. If they get behind and it's late, you assume a loss. 

They do nothing that is enjoyable to watch other than pop a few homers. 

I honestly have a hard time watching them at this point. We all hope they will get healthy and get better, but it's sure is one of the more eclectic teams that I've seen over the years.

 

 

It’s like everything that this team has been good at and gotten away with over the past two seasons (winning one run games, clutch hitting, relatively injury free) have done a 180. Those were hallmarks of the 2022 and 2023 teams, they don’t figure into the 2024 team. 

Make the playoffs, see what happens (probably not much) and hope these issues don’t carry over to 2025. 

[joelala]

1 hour ago, TopGunnar said:

I think we’re at the point now where we have to question the talent. Maybe some of these guys are a tad over hyped. 

That’s also a possibility. I don’t think it’s likely but there is potential for a failed super rebuild a la the white sox of the early 2020s. 

[EddeeEddee]

2 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

The batting went downhill when injuries put us from a full 1-through-9 lineup into a 1-through-6. Some individual players had slumps in the good months too, but we could withstand that. Now we can't.

Jimenez, the current version of Holliday, Rivera, Livan Soto, McCann, the current version of Mayo, Austin Slater, Nick Maton. Every single lineup in September has featured 3 players from that list.

Yeah, I agree with this.  As much as people don't want to admit it, our offense is not yet deep enough to withstand the loss of Westburg and Mountcastle for a long period of time -- and then also lose a red hot Urias.  Holliday, Kjerstad and Mayo just are not there yet.  And Cowser appears that he will be a feast or famine type of player -- at least until further notice.

Plus, Mateo's defense I think was underrated, and he certainly hit better overall than Holliday has so far.  

Adley's slump is concerning, but at least he got a homer today and another hit.  People want to focus on the slump of this or that player right now, but really it's 3 or 4 badly needed bats that are out of the lineup hurt and 2-3 bats that just aren't there yet that are the difference.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

A lot of that talent is on the IL. 

This is true …. But you have to find a way. 

[Warehouse]

20 minutes ago, joelala said:

That’s also a possibility. I don’t think it’s likely but there is potential for a failed super rebuild a la the white sox of the early 2020s. 

I think the downside scenario is more likely to resemble the recent Jays.  

However, there is also a decent possibility that Red Sox and/or Yankees become dominant over the next few years.  I think the Red Sox young core (Durran, Roman Anthony, Casas, Rafaela, Abreu, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, Kristian Campbell, Miguel Bleis + Devers) is as good or better than ours and they are going to have a lot of payroll capacity.  The Yankees could return Cole and Soto along with Judge and good young pitching - even if the rest of the lineup is middling they will be tough. 

As a result, I’m trying to enjoy the season and not to get too down despite it seeming like a slog.  As frustrating as it has been, it’s still better than being out of contention in September. I’m hoping that all of the Orioles Magic is just being saved up for the playoffs unlike last year. 

[mall-O-cup]

I saw Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band at Camden Yards Friday night and they strung together

multiple hits. Best thing I've seen at Camden all summer. In their nonstop 3 1/2 hour performance they practically

burned the place down with Bruce pushing 74 years old.

Here's hoping the Orioles can rally themselves and produce some magic of their own as the season winds down.

Spot on post by the way.