Was the offense just in a run of bad luck on this road trip?

[Spy Fox]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes I have felt that, but it’s nice to have some numbers to back it up.  As a fan, there’s always a tendency to feel your team has been unlucky, whether or not it’s true.  

I think that's true, but the inverse is an even bigger factor in perception: fans (and probably players too) do NOT notice when their team is lucky. Good luck is chalked up to ability, clutchness, good vibes/leadership, etc. 

[eddie83]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's hitting philosophy seems to be hit the ball has hard as you can.   And the O's often swing for the fences.    The teams that score a lot of run seem to be move about stringing several hits together.  Pass the baton. 

I know Hyde preaches to pass the baton but the players seem to just hit as hard as they can.  To me that is why they don't hit as well as the could with RISP.

I think the RISP issue is guys pressing and being young. I think going thru it will help them in the long run. 
 

Power plays. You don’t see many rallies in the game against good pitching. The highest scoring teams in AL all slug well.  

[Aglets]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's hitting philosophy seems to be hit the ball has hard as you can.   And the O's often swing for the fences.    The teams that score a lot of run seem to be move about stringing several hits together.  Pass the baton. 

I know Hyde preaches to pass the baton but the players seem to just hit as hard as they can.  To me that is why they don't hit as well as the could with RISP.

The Orioles have scored the 2nd most runs in the American League.  Remarkable that this is still true despite recent struggles.  Seems like the approach has worked well for the most part.

[Roy Firestone]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks to @Warehouse, I learned of a tool to get game logs that show expected stats vs. actual stats on a game by game basis.   Using that, I compiled a list of every game the Orioles have played since August 17, which is when I deem their offensive slump to have started.   Here’s what I found:

- In 23 of the 33 games, the team’s xwOBA exceeded their actual wOBA (i.e., they were “unlucky”).

- In 7 games, the “unlucky” gap between wOBA and xwOBA was 75 points or more.  By contrast, wOBA exceeded xwOBA (“lucky”) by 75 points or more only 3 times.   

I have a bit more work to do, but it does seem like bad luck has been a fairly significant factor in the O’s offensive woes over the last five weeks or so.
 

I believe "luck" is a bit overrated. Realised talent and fulfilled potential beats the hell out of luck every time. I think we have completely underperformed when it matters most. Screw bad luck ,hit with runners in scoring position. Full stop.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Roy Firestone said:

I believe "luck" is a bit overrated. Realised talent and fulfilled potential beats the hell out of luck every time. I think we have completely underperformed when it matters most. Screw bad luck ,hit with runners in scoring position. Full stop.

I mean Cowser hit the go-ahead home run last night, except it was like 5 feet short in the exact wrong part of the field. If that's not bad luck, I dunno what is. 

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

I believe "luck" is a bit overrated. Realised talent and fulfilled potential beats the hell out of luck every time. I think we have completely underperformed when it matters most. Screw bad luck ,hit with runners in scoring position. Full stop.

Same group hit with RISP last year. 
 

Injuries impacted the talent. Now some is back. Hopefully more soon. 

[eddie83]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

I mean Cowser hit the go-ahead home run last night, except it was like 5 feet short in the exact wrong part of the field. If that's not bad luck, I dunno what is. 

Tigers are on one of those rolls. 2007 Rockies, 14 KC etc. Both got to WS although lost. 

 

2021 STL got red hot at end but lost one game WC.  
 

Just never know when it ends.  

[LookitsPuck]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

I mean Cowser hit the go-ahead home run last night, except it was like 5 feet short in the exact wrong part of the field. If that's not bad luck, I dunno what is. 

Mullins and Santander crapped the bed in the bottom the 9th in about as big of a gimme situation there can be to walk it off. They had a runner on 2nd with no outs and crapped the bed down by 1. 

At some point, luck isn’t an excuse. Good teams make the most of each AB. Bad/mediocre teams have to find ways to lose or count on luck. 

This is a mediocre team. Now, with Ramon and Westy and various bullpen arms back…are they a good team? Let’s hope so. Good teams don’t give regular ABs to Eloy, Rivera, Soto, struggling rookies, and overexposed platoon players. Luckily a good portion of those have been sent down or are now in reserve roles.

Lets see if their luck changes these next 6 games, and god-willing: after.

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, wildcard said:

IMO teams make their own luck.

Some truth to this but largely this isn’t the case.

[Spy Fox]

9 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Tigers are on one of those rolls. 2007 Rockies, 14 KC etc. Both got to WS although lost. 

 

2021 STL got red hot at end but lost one game WC.  
 

Just never know when it ends.  

The 2013 Cleveland Indians went 21-6 in September, including winning the last 10 games of the season to get the top wild card spot. 

They were promptly shut out at home in the WC game by Tampa Bay, who had an unexceptional second half. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Spy Fox

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

The 2013 Cleveland Indians went 21-6 in September, including winning the last 10 games of the season to get the top wild card spot. 

They were promptly shut out at home in the WC game by Tampa Bay, who had an unexceptional second half. 

Yeah. Examples all over. You just never know. 
 

I brought up before the 2006 Cardinals who looked terrible at end of year. Almost blew it. Then won it all.  
 

Sometimes the playoffs are a reset and you can actually exhale. 

[Just Regular]

5 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

The 2013 Cleveland Indians went 21-6 in September, including winning the last 10 games of the season to get the top wild card spot. 

They were promptly shut out at home in the WC game by Tampa Bay, who had an unexceptional second half. 

The Delmon Young game before The Delmon Young game.     Alex Cobb making Brady get all moony-eyed.

[glenn__davis]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

The 2013 Cleveland Indians went 21-6 in September, including winning the last 10 games of the season to get the top wild card spot. 

They were promptly shut out at home in the WC game by Tampa Bay, who had an unexceptional second half. 

I remember in 2006 the Tigers were rolling through the postseason and had swept the ALCS.  I happened to see some commentators previewing Game 7 of the NLCS between the Mets and Cardinals and one of them said, "The winner here wins the right to be swept by the Tigers in the World Series."

St. Louis won and beat the Tigers 4-1 in the WS.

The playoffs - and frankly any set of baseball results in a very short sample size - are random.  

There has been post after post on here showing this.  It really doesn't matter how you enter the playoffs.  The old expression "better lucky than good" is especially true about the MLB playoffs.  Folks don't like that because they like a narrative, but it's the truth.

[Sports Guy]

It’s never only bad or good luck. But when it’s not “normalized”, it plays a big factor. Guarantee the Os have at least 2 more wins right now if they had just had average luck the last several weeks.  

[Moshagge3]

Talk about the cruel hand of fate. If not for two great plays by Sweeney and Meadows, we could be talking about how the Orioles just swept the hottest team in baseball and can start resting everyone for a nearly guaranteed home series.

Instead we get to root for some of the worst teams in baseball this week. Go A's, Marlins, Nationals, and Rays!