A look ahead to the 2025 payroll

[Say O!]

When doing these exercises, I find the “payroll” section on fangraphs roster resource to be helpful. Here’s the link for the Orioles.  Keep in mind that there is approx $22M additional for each team paid into player benefits, pre-arb bonus pool, and estimate for minor league salaries on 40 man.  To note this does not include MLB draft bonus pool.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Say O! said:

When doing these exercises, I find the “payroll” section on fangraphs roster resource to be helpful. Here’s the link for the Orioles.  Keep in mind that there is approx $22M additional for each team paid into player benefits, pre-arb bonus pool, and estimate for minor league salaries on 40 man.  To note this does not include MLB draft bonus pool.

If you want to add all the extras the O's are still playing Davis and Cobb.

[LookitsPuck]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

1) It was Mateo non throwing arm.    April would be 7 months.   I think he will make that.

2) Beavers is probably a year away IMO.

3) I think a lot is TBD on O'Hearn.  These next 9 games and the playoffs will tell the tale.   If he steps forward he can have a good chance to stay.

I'm actually not concerned about his throwing arm, it's more about his hitting. There's definitely value in a super utility player like him who can play CF, SS, 2B, but his value was also the ability to hit lefties pretty well and speed. 

I wouldn't mind bringing him back because presumably he'd start the season on the IL and wouldn't clog a roster spot. 

 

[Gentile4]

Are we at the point that we want to give the backup catcher 225-250 PAs? If that's the case, I'd like to see an upgrade from McCann.

[Say O!]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If you want to add all the extras the O's are still playing Davis and Cobb.

Per CBA rules, hasn’t most (90%) of the deferred buyouts have to be already set aside in present value?  This is why not shown in the payments itemization.  Same with Bobby Bonilla for NYM and why Shohei Ohtani shown in terms of AAV present value. 

[Aristotelian]

I could see nontendering Soto and maybe Mateo. Still, that's at least $80M likely committed. How high do we see payroll going? I still don't see Elias pursuing elite free agents, more due to the years than the AAV. 

My dream offseason would be Sasaki but I don't have my hopes up.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I could see nontendering Soto and maybe Mateo. Still, that's at least $80M likely committed. How high do we see payroll going? I still don't see Elias pursuing elite free agents, more due to the years than the AAV. 

My dream offseason would be Sasaki but I don't have my hopes up.

I want to see what the Snell market is. I would rather go higher AAV and lower on years..4/140.

Pivetta, as I have said, is a target for me as well. Up to 3/50.

 

[Bahama O's Fan]

I didn't realize McCann was a free agent. Who else can you bring in that will accept his role that is better than McCann. I wish Basallo was ready. 

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t do that without seeing Mayo and eventually Basallo first. It’s irrational to block guys that talented and that productive.

You could bring back Mounty as insurance but you do go out and go crazy for a first baseman.

It’s not like there’s a good 1B in FA anyway. 

[LookitsPuck]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It’s not like there’s a good 1B in FA anyway. 

Current ages in parenthesis:

Paul Goldschmidt (37), Pete Alonso (29), Rhys Hoskins (31), Anthony Rizzo (35), Josh Bell (32), Rowdy Tellez (29), Christian Walker (33), Ryan O'Hearn (31), Carlos Santana (38)

Not much quantity.

[waroriole]

Just now, LookitsPuck said:

Current ages in parenthesis:

Paul Goldschmidt (37), Pete Alonso (29), Rhys Hoskins (31), Anthony Rizzo (35), Josh Bell (32), Rowdy Tellez (29), Christian Walker (33), Ryan O'Hearn (31), Carlos Santana (38)

Not much quantity.

Just not a good investment on the list. 

[LookitsPuck]

7 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I didn't realize McCann was a free agent. Who else can you bring in that will accept his role that is better than McCann. I wish Basallo was ready. 

McCann had 226 PA last year and will be close to that this year. 

I think Elias Diaz would be a good fit. d'Arnaud would be the dream. He had 322 PA this year, but I do think there's a world in which he could get close to 300 here since he can hit so they can probably afford to have him DH from time/time. He's also played a handful of games at 1B (21) in his MLB career. 

But I doubt Elias ponies up the money for d'Arnaud, and I'm guessing Travis will want to be a starter and not a backup C/DH/1B type here. 

Jacob Stallings would make a ton of sense, too.

[Aristotelian]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I want to see what the Snell market is. I would rather go higher AAV and lower on years..4/140.

Pivetta, as I have said, is a target for me as well. Up to 3/50.

 

I'm definitely interested in Snell. Not sure what you see in Pivetta. 5-11, 4.37 ERA doesn't seem like an upgrade over anyone we have. Still need to keep that 5th spot open for McDermott/Povich/Rogers/Young/Suarez

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm definitely interested in Snell. Not sure what you see in Pivetta. 5-11, 4.37 ERA doesn't seem like an upgrade over anyone we have. Still need to keep that 5th spot open for McDermott/Povich/Rogers/Young/Suarez

Solid statcast page, good peripherals. Misses bats, gets Ks, keeps the walks down.

Homers are an issue for him.

xERA, FIp and xFIP all better than his ERA. 
 

Rising K rates, declining Bb rates, misses bats. Some similar stats to what Eflin looked like a few years ago.

Also had good durability.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm prepared for Soto to get a WOW offer from us!

Be on the lookout for him at a Ravens game.