Wait Till Next Year

[LookitsPuck]

From a previous post I made on the 2025 payroll with minor adjustments. Here's my strategy:

I'm bringing back:

• Offense/Defense
  • C - Adley
  • SS - Gunnar
  • 3B - Westburg
  • 2B - Holliday
  • 1B - Mountcastle
  • DH - Kjerstad
  • LF - Cowser
  • CF - Cowser/Mullins
  • RF - ?
  • Backup OF - ?
  • Backup C - ?
  • Utility - Urias
• Starting Pitchers
  • SP1: Eflin
  • SP2: Grayson
  • SP3: Acquire somebody
  • SP4: Kremer
  • SP5: Suarez
• Relievers
  • Closer: Felix
  • Setup: Cano
  • Late Relief: Webb
  • Late Relief: Coulombe
  • Late Relief: Perez
  • Middle/Long Relief: Akin
  • Reliever: ?
  • Reliever: ?
• Depth
  • SP: Povich, McDermott, Rogers
  • RP: McDermott

I'm bringing back, but not giving a spot to:

• Mayo
• Rogers
• Mateo - had surgery at the end of August, could he be back in the middle of the season next year? Sure. Think the money is low enough to keep him as an option, especially since his legs nor his throwing arm were injured. So he'll start the season on the IL and not clog a roster spot.

Guys I'm giving a QO offer to:

• Burnes
• Santander - I really go back and forth with Santander. He's not great in the outfield. His average and OBP is a liability. But his power is prolific. Does that age well? I don't think so. I'd extend the QO and move on.

I'm not bringing back:

• Dominguez - I could be convinced to keep him if we're desperate
• Soto - was a poor acquisition not just because of the talent given up, but because he was always a situational guy with control issues
• O'Hearn - $8m for a guy that really shouldn't be in the field and can only hit righties is a lot of loot
• Santander - Give a QO, move on
• Eloy - Duh

This means we need to acquire the following:

• Starting Pitcher(s)
  • The O's can't go into next season giving Povich a spot and they definitely can not give a spot to Rogers. Rogers needs to be a deep depth arm until he showcases an increase in velocity and/or incredible promise that he can be serviceable and not a WHIP disaster who can barely go 5.
  • Targets: Snell, Burnes, Fried, Wacha, Severino, Morton, etc. 
• Reliever(s)
  • No more Phillies castoffs. No more waiver wire, dumpster diving for the entire bullpen. No more washed up vets. 
  • Targets: David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Blake Treinen, Andrew Kittredge, Tanner Scott, etc.
• Position Player(s)
  • Backup C (give more time to the backup if a better hitter so Adley can be fresh throughout year)
    • Targets: Elias Diaz, Travis d'Arnaud (although I reckon the Braves pickup his option), Jacob Stallings. I guess if they're desperate they can stick with Blake Hunt (in the minors)
  • Corner OF
    • We could always acquire a bat first OF and then put Kjerstad in the OF.
    • Targets: Tyler O'Neill, Jurickson Profar, Joc Pederson, etc.
  • Backup OF
    • Could be Mullins if they, say, call up Beavers and sign another OF, otherwise these are a dime a dozen out there. Just get somebody that can platoon since it's a heavy LHH OF right now.
  • 1B
    • For the Mountcastle haters, yeah, I get it. But he's still only 27, plus defense, and he can hit a little. Think the main issue is Waltimore for him. Like Mancini, I think it got in his head. I could be convinced to get a 1B off the FA market, but it's really lackluster. Only premium guy is Alonso. The others are older in Goldschmidt (37) and Walker (33). And would Walker still have the same issues at Mountcastle w/ Waltimore?

Rubenstein better pony up. Will definitely hold him to task if they don't sign at least a Tier 2 starting pitcher and an established hitter. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

No they don’t 

Also agree with this. We need to spend on pitching, most definitely. But I am fine if we play the market and end up with someone top tier, not necessarily Burnes. If it’s burnes, then great. But there are alternatives.

And also, he 100% is not the same pitcher he was a few years ago. His strikeout breaking stuff has kind of left him at the moment. 

[Sports Guy]

Snell is my preference. If he can be signed for 4/140 or less, that should be the target.

[Gofannon]

"Swing for the fences, but we're going to move the fences back 30 feet" seems like a message that contradicts itself, at least for right-handed hitters.

[Emory Eagle]

What is the contract status of Dominguez and Soto (pitcher)?  If they are not FA they absolutely should be back.  Need good stuff + numbers out of the BP.

[LookitsPuck]

5 minutes ago, Emory Eagle said:

What is the contract status of Dominguez and Soto (pitcher)?  If they are not FA they absolutely should be back.  Need good stuff + numbers out of the BP.

Both under contract (arb eligible or option) for 2025.

Edited 1 hour ago by LookitsPuck

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Emory Eagle said:

What is the contract status of Dominguez and Soto (pitcher)?  If they are not FA they absolutely should be back.  Need good stuff + numbers out of the BP.

Soto is arb eligible.  Dominguez has an 8M option

[LookitsPuck]

2 minutes ago, Gofannon said:

"Swing for the fences, but we're going to move the fences back 30 feet" seems like a message that contradicts itself, at least for right-handed hitters.

This really sums it up. I thought Waltimore was a good idea, but then they constructed the lineup with a bunch of LHH that can't hit lefties well enough to take advantage of RF. And the RHH bats were neutralized because they are largely pull guys that don't have a consistent ability to slap oppo and they didn't have consistent enough super strength to take it over Waltimore. 

So while Waltimore did help neutralize opposing offenses, in the process it did the same to the O's and teams with LHPs in rotations or the bullpen could easily take down the O's. 

I do wonder if they split the gap and maybe bring the wall in 15-20 feet, but still keep the height.

[Emory Eagle]

They need 1 top end RP, one top end SP, a depth SP option, and a righty that can mash lefties.  Should be doable but pitching will be expensive.  Would also be nice to see extensions for some of the core and investment in upgrades to the stadium.  From an organizational standpoint, really need to start seeing some benefits at the MLB level from the international player development side of things.

[Emory Eagle]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Soto is arb eligible.  Dominguez has an 8M option

8M is a bit expensive for that HR rate.  Interested to see what they do there, unless folks think it is obvious he will not be retained.

[Bemorewins]

10 hours ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

I think it’s way too early to know if the results will be the same. I will say, I want to go full youth movement. No more log jams. Let these guys sink or swim and grow together:

CF Mullins 

3B Westburg

C Adley (healthy )

SS Gunnar

LF Cowser

DH O’hearn

RF Kjerstad

2B Holliday

1B Mayo

 

I actually think our bullpen could be quite good and I think we definitely need to sign a top line starter. 

I would say that this lineup has the potential to sink against good LHP just like this year. That’s way too many LHH bats. We need at least one good vet RH bat. They are a few available (including Alonso) to man 1B, which moves Mayo to his best defensive position DH.

I would not like to see O’Hearn return. He is not a good enough legit MOO bat on a championship team. 

Also, from a business/fan engagement perspective, you can’t really afford to run it back and sell customers on the line “yeah well forget about the last 2 years, this year will be different!” We already saw by season’s end the fan disengagement/market place not being as interested by the swarths of empty seats for playoff games.

The org is going to have to do something to fix that. And IMO it is not more of the status quo.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Last year some experts were saying we were still two years away, but yet somehow Hyde got us there. 

Where did he get us exactly?

If the goal is simply to qualify for the playoffs I would say that the bar is set too low. We didn’t need to undergo an extreme tank (that forced a change in the rules of MLB) just to qualify for a playoff spot.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I would say that this lineup has the potential to sink against good LHP just like this year. That’s way too many LHH bats. We need at least one good vet RH bat. They are a few available (including Alonso) to man 1B, which moves Mayo to his best defensive position DH.

I would not like to see O’Hearn return. He is not a good enough legit MOO bat on a championship team. 

Also, from a business/fan engagement perspective, you can’t really afford to run it back and sell customers on the line “yeah well forget about the last 2 years, this year will be different!” We already saw by season’s end the fan disengagement/market place not being as interested by the swarths of empty seats for playoff games.

The org is going to have to do something to fix that. And IMO it is not more of the status quo.

I think the playoffs not being attended angle is overplayed a bit. Last year we had Sat/Sun games in the ALDS. This year it was Tues/Wed afternoon games.

I saw empty seats in Houston as well. 

[LGOrioles]

I’m bringing back both Soto and Dominguez.

Dominguez isn’t a closer and is questionable against LHP’s (similar to Cano) but is dynamite against RHP’s. We saw what we did to Witt and Perez the last 2 days. They need more K’s from the pen and guys with backend experience as a contingency plan for Bautista. He’d be a weapon in the 7th/8th innings. 

Soto and Perez both have control issues but Soto has better stuff and gets a lot more K’s. Perez is fine but his walks have been continually increasing and I’ll take the guy who isn’t going to have as many balls in play. 

 

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

I think the playoffs not being attended angle is overplayed a bit. Last year we had Sat/Sun games in the ALDS. This year it was Tues/Wed afternoon games.

I saw empty seats in Houston as well. 

All I can say is this, I was born and raised in this community. Left for a while but moved back and have lived here for over a decade.

I know that this community will not be engaged/enthusiastic/excited about running things back given how the last two seasons have ended. Look at how Ravens fans reacted to their team losing in the AFC title game. 

Good luck with trying to increase season ticket sales and you don’t make changes, bring in some signings to excite the fan base for next year.

Did you notice the almost apathy that set in around town regarding this team as compared to the buzz at the beginning of the season when we brought in Burnes and had a new owner. The luster/honeymoon is now over. The org is going to have to do something to reignite that fire/excitement given how the last two seasons ended.