Adley's health this season

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Surhoffan17 said:

When has he made excuses? I can't recall one instance. 

You aren’t actually thinking there is an intelligence answer coming from him, do you?

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Isn’t this saying -14 Swing Runs in the shadow?

That chart on the right is confusing AF. I see -14 swing runs in the shadow and -13 runs on take but the chart on the left says -16 runs total in the shadow. I dunno. 

I do know it backs up what we show with our eyes and that he missed or took way too many hittable pitches this year.

[DirtyBird]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That chart on the right is confusing AF. I see -14 swing runs in the shadow and -13 runs on take but the chart on the left says -16 runs total in the shadow. I dunno. 

I do know it backs up what we show with our eyes and that he missed or took way too many hittable pitches this year.

I think green bar above the color coded line is Swing and the brown bar below the color coded line is Take. So data from each zone straddles its color coded line.

So he was bad when he took pitches in the heart, and bad when he swung at them in the shadow.

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

I think green bar above the color coded line is Swing and the brown bar below the color coded line is Take. So data from each zone straddles its color coded line.

So he was bad when he took pitches in the heart, and bad when he swung at them in the shadow.

Forget the value for a second since they don't add up from the chart on the right to the chart on the left. Just look at how much less he swings at pitches in the heart of the zone. He swings at 10% less pitches than the major league average in the heart of the zone where most of the damage is done. He actually swang at 3% more pitches than major league average on chase, so not sure how he was worth 22 more runs unless he did more damage than others in that area.

[Pat Kelly]

 

[e16bball]

45 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Forget the value for a second since they don't add up from the chart on the right to the chart on the left. Just look at how much less he swings at pitches in the heart of the zone. He swings at 10% less pitches than the major league average in the heart of the zone where most of the damage is done. He actually swang at 3% more pitches than major league average on chase, so not sure how he was worth 22 more runs unless he did more damage than others in that area.

It’s that last bolded part. Mostly. 

What they’re showing in that chart is the run value of the actual outcome of each pitch the batter saw in that zone — not the value of “good take” vs. “bad swing,” as you might assume based on the context.

So in the the heart of the plate, for example, everyone’s “take” runs are going to be negative, because taking almost assuredly resulted in a strike every time. So every “take” outcome was negative, and they’re adding up that negative run value for each one to get the total damage done by taking pitches in the middle of the plate. For Adley, that was -13 runs of negative value this year. 

On the other hand, you get a wide disparity of values from “swings” in the heart of the plate, and that’s basically dependent on how good the hitter is. Because what they’re looking at is the result of the swing — good hitters do tons of damage on pitches down the middle, but bad hitters still make lots of outs on them.

The worst hitter in baseball on pitches in the heart of the plate was Maikel “Just Go Ahead and Bunt Three Times” Garcia. He took almost as many of these pitches as Adley, so his takes in the heart of the plate were worth -12 runs. He also sucked something terrible at hitting them, posting a whopping -19 run value when he swung at pitches in the heart zone.

The best hitter in baseball on pitches in the heart of the plate (and top 5 in every zone) was…wait for it…Aaron Judge with +41 run value. Though he was much better than league average at swinging at heart pitches, he still took 160 of them (for strikes), so those were worth -11 runs. He destroyed the pitches he swung at, though, to the tune of +52 runs on swings. 
 

It’s the same throughout all the other zones. So for Adley, his takes were a little below average in the “shadow” zone — meaning the pitches he took around the fringes of the plate were called strikes more than they were called balls. And all the called balls he took in the “chase” and “waste” zones were worth a combined total of +40 runs.

Swings in the “shadow” zone usually result in negative value, except for your really elite hit tool guys (Witt, Ramirez, Marte, Alvarez, etc). Which makes sense, because it’s really the so-called “pitcher’s pitch” area. Adley was -14 runs of value added on his swing here, which is not great but not really horrible either. 

The last two zones are pretty simple — taking pitches will result in a ball, so all of those are good outcomes. Swinging at them pretty much inevitably will result in a strike or an out, so they’re almost all bad outcomes. Adley was comparatively good in this area, with the value of his ability to lay off bad pitches far outweighing the damage done when he did chase. 
 

In the end, it sort of tells us the same story that we already knew from watching him. He’s pretty good at laying off bad pitches, although he expanded the zone a lot more this year than last (which didn’t seem to work out). He also just inexplicably took tons of good strikes in the heart of the plate (which definitely didn’t work out). Swinging at more bad pitches and less good pitches is certainly part of the recipe for the disastrous 2nd half, I think.