Should Mullins go back to leadoff in 2025 vs RHP?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

It's a player option.

Right..if it is a player option, it becomes more sensible for Mullins but not for the Os.

 

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Right..if it is a player option, it becomes more sensible for Mullins but not for the Os.

 

Depends on the risks you're hedging against.  A solid floor matters in portfolio management. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

The only way it makes sense for Mullins to give us a team option for 2026 is if it has a good base salary and a large buyout, so like maybe $15 million with a $5 million dollar buyout. He was a 13th round pick (IIRC) so he didn't get a huge bonus and he clearly isn't ever going to reach his 2021 heights again, so there might be some appeal to another guaranteed $5 million in case he has a poor 2025 and a lucrative multiyear FA deal isn't there for 2026.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The only way it makes sense for Mullins to give us a team option for 2026 is if it has a good base salary and a large buyout, so like maybe $15 million with a $5 million dollar buyout. He was a 13th round pick (IIRC) so he didn't get a huge bonus and he clearly isn't ever going to reach his 2021 heights again, so there might be some appeal to another guaranteed $5 million in case he has a poor 2025 and a lucrative multiyear FA deal isn't there for 2026.

Not even sure 15M is enough.

If he has a good 2025, he is likely a QO candidate because CF is such a shallow position. He probably could get a good 3 year deal from someone.

QO is going to likely be around 23M for 2026.

 

[Aristotelian]

Holliday should be our leadoff guy if we can get him going and hitting anything close to his MiLB number. He has been a .400+ OBP guy at every level.

Until then, we probably don't have a true leadoff hitter so we will probably cycle guys in and out. The default will probably be to use the spot to ensure Gunnar gets the most AB's possible. 

I like Mullins as a good #9 rather than average leadoff guy. 

[Safelykept]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Possible but unlikely

with all due respect and I know youre big on him, But Jackson with a lot to due to make it to lead off. Of course you  give yourself the 2025 season for this to happen, Just like you gave all of 2024 for JH to turn into ROY and to start looking like the #1 prospect in baseball.The way it stands now, no way JH starts the season as leadoff hitter

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Not even sure 15M is enough.

If he has a good 2025, he is likely a QO candidate because CF is such a shallow position. He probably could get a good 3 year deal from someone.

QO is going to likely be around 23M for 2026.

 

Okay, so make it a $20 million dollar option with the buyout, which would make it a $15 million dollar decision for the O's.

He's had enough protracted periods of complete offensive uselessness over the past couple of years that he might take the bird in hand over the two in the bush.

I'm not even sure I would personally do that deal, I'm just saying that I could see him choosing the additional guaranteed financial security for him and his family that it offers since he hasn't banked as much money as a guy like Adley who got a huge bonus when he was drafted.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

with all due respect and I know youre big on him, But Jackson with a lot to due to make it to lead off. Of course you  give yourself the 2025 season for this to happen, Just like you gave all of 2024 for JH to turn into ROY and to start looking like the #1 prospect in baseball.The way it stands now, no way JH starts the season as leadoff hitter

I wouldn’t say no way..I think what he does in the offseason and how he looks in ST will matter a lot.

That said, I don’t disagree that he may have to wait on being the leadoff hitter…I just don’t feel he will have to wait too long and will end up at the top of the lineup for most of the year.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Okay, so make it a $20 million dollar option with the buyout, which would make it a $15 million dollar decision for the O's.

He's had enough protracted periods of complete offensive uselessness over the past couple of years that he might take the bird in hand over the two in the bush.

I'm not even sure I would personally do that deal, I'm just saying that I could see him choosing the additional guaranteed financial security for him and his family that it offers since he hasn't banked as much money as a guy like Adley who got a huge bonus when he was drafted.

But it’s not an additional gtd year. It’s an option.

If it’s a club option and they exercise it, that likely means Mullins is leaving money on the table.

If it’s a player option and he accepts it, it’s likely something the team doesn’t want.

Which is why, either way, I can’t see him doing this.  It makes more logical sense than what WC was talking about if the salary is much larger and the buyout is higher but I don’t think the Os pay him 6-10M to not play baseball for them.

[Safelykept]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I wouldn’t say no way..I think what he does in the offseason and how he looks in ST will matter a lot.

That said, I don’t disagree that he may have to wait on being the leadoff hitter…I just don’t feel he will have to wait too long and will end up at the top of the lineup for most of the year.

Come on SG ,youre too good to know ST wont be enough, as far as the rest of 2025, I hope youre right.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Come on SG ,youre too good to know ST wont be enough, as far as the rest of 2025, I hope youre right.

ST was enough for them to think he was making the team and then he came up quickly. 
 

If he can essentially make the team out of ST with minimal AAA experience, he can do enough to convince them that batting at the top of the lineup is fine.

If it’s not working early, you can easily make the change. It’s not likely to cost the Os wins by doing it. Thats not how it works. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Sports Guy

[Safelykept]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

ST was enough for them to think he was making the team and then he came up quickly. 
 

If he can essentially make the team out of ST with minimal AAA experience, he can do enough to convince them that batting at the top of the lineup is fine.

If it’s not working early, you can easily make the change. It’s not likely to cost the Os wins by doing it. Thats not how it works. 

all of that might might happen, my point is why would the O's care about ST? they have half a season of MLB to grade him. Again I hope youre right

[interloper]

Maybe if Gunnar gets hurt or something. Otherwise I like him in the 7-9 spots. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

all of that might might happen, my point is why would the O's care about ST? they have half a season of MLB to grade him. Again I hope youre right

Because if he comes in looking completely different, has made a lot of adjustments and is carrying a different confidence, etc…that matters a lot. 
 

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But it’s not an additional gtd year. It’s an option.

If it’s a club option and they exercise it, that likely means Mullins is leaving money on the table.

If it’s a player option and he accepts it, it’s likely something the team doesn’t want.

Which is why, either way, I can’t see him doing this.  It makes more logical sense than what WC was talking about if the salary is much larger and the buyout is higher but I don’t think the Os pay him 6-10M to not play baseball for them.

The full $15-20 million wouldn't be guaranteed in my scenario, but $5 million of it would be, and I could see some appeal in that for a guy who has stuggled to the point of looking like a potential non-tender candidate at times in recent years and hasn't made a ton of money overall in his career as a late-blooming 13th round pick. 

Like I said though, I don't even know if I would offer him that deal, and I doubt the Orioles would do it with Cowser looking as good as he has in CF and Bradfield hopefully arriving by sometime in 2026 anyway, I just think he'd potentially be open to it.