A's and Rays draft and amateur international signing expenditures

[Frobby]

I'm looking at last year and this year. The A's have had a recent change in philosophy starting with the 2008 draft. And as you can see this year, they did not shy away from players with signability issues.

The Orioles had a watershed year under Duquette and Flanagan. It seemed the checkbook was open, the Orioles were aggressive in FA and the draft, not shying away from paying top dollar. There was no smoke and mirrors. Granted the results weren't all positive, but the Orioles weren't afraid to spend.

Now it seems under Andy MacPhail, the Orioles are much more hesitant to spend in general, even more so than teams like Tampa and Oakland, because MacPhail is adverse to taking risks, and spending money on fewer premium talent guys rather than spreading it out on lesser talent, is a risk.

So it seems like we've gone from one extreme to the other.

Go ahead and pretend that MacPhail wasn't involved in the negotations with Wieters, Arrieta et al. I don't know how a "budget" for that draft could have been set, considering Wieters' demands.

There's really no point in arguing with you about these points. Your idea of a good draft seems to be (1) choose whichever player is highest ranked by BA each round, and (2) pay them whatever they are demanding. Any other move is just seen by you as MacPhail being cheap. I'm not going to try to talk you out of it, think whatever you want.

[TyCobb]

AM also shelled out big bucks to sign Roberts and Markakis long term.

[JTrea81]

Go ahead and pretend that MacPhail wasn't involved in the negotations with Wieters, Arrieta et al. I don't know how a "budget" for that draft could have been set, considering Wieters' demands.

There's really no point in arguing with you about these points. Your idea of a good draft seems to be (1) choose whichever player is highest ranked by BA each round, and (2) pay them whatever they are demanding. Any other move is just seen by you as MacPhail being cheap. I'm not going to try to talk you out of it, think whatever you want.

This is basically what Oakland did for the first few rounds. It will be interesting to compare strategies to see which one was more successful...

[JTrea81]

AM also shelled out big bucks to sign Roberts and Markakis long term.

Markakis took a discount to sign with the Orioles IMO, and Roberts was about market value. But neither was a huge risk and both didn't really need a lot of recruiting because they already were Orioles and both wanted to stay in some regard.

[TyCobb]

Markakis took a discount to sign with the Orioles IMO, and Roberts was about market value. But neither was a huge risk and both didn't really need a lot of recruiting because they already were Orioles and both wanted to stay in some regard.

Did you see what happen to the economy the past 2 years?

4 year 40 million is more than market value at the time. Bobby Abreu signed like a 5 million dollar contract this year.

6 year at 66 million is a discount? Are you insane!

[Lucky Jim]

This is basically what Oakland did for the first few rounds. It will be interesting to compare strategies to see which one was more successful...

Are you actually alleging that the A's just piggy-backed on BA?

If not, what's the point, other than for one year there happened to be a correlation (and nothing else) between the A's rankings and BA's?

[hoosiers]

I think everyone here wants the Os to ramp up funding for the US draft and for international signings. However, total funding is often a function of one's draft position - especially for the Rays who have drafted at the front of the first round for a while and paid big $ to Price, Bechkham, etc. As a result, I would hardly consider the Rays "philosophy" so much more advanced than the Orioles.

In fact, while JT laments a potential lower spend for the Os in 2009, he appears to conveniently ignore the likelihood that Tampa will as well - in fact, the Rays are likely to have a steeper % and $ drop than the Orioles based on their draft position. We'll see, but the Rays appear to be a poor analogy, IMO.

Overall, I think the comparisons are poor for another reason. Is it really that important that the Os spend more on the draft and international signings than any other team? In a perfect world, the Os would spent the most $ here, but, IMO, it would be more appropriate expectation for the Os to be in the top 10 in total spend between these two sources of talent at some point soon.

I do not believe it is fair to expect AM to get us into the top 10 or so clubs in international signings within two years, but I expect annual progress.

[JTrea81]

Are you actually alleging that the A's just piggy-backed on BA?

If not, what's the point, other than for one year there happened to be a correlation (and nothing else) between the A's rankings and BA's?

That is the point. The A's took the BPA on their board which happened to agree with the publications like BA. Jordan had a different board apparently possibly influenced by his budget.

So in a few years we'll see who had the better rankings, Jordan or the A's and BA.

[geschinger]

I want them to take the players they feel are the best selections for the Orioles and if that means spending over slot then I want them to spend over slot. But if Jordan had Hobgood ranked just behind Ackley and felt he was a better pick than the other more expensive players then that is who he should pick. It wouldn't make me feel better about our draft if he passed on the player he thought was the best pick because of other people's perceptions.

We don't know what kind of budget Jordan but what we do know is that the Orioles did pick a couple of guys who will need more than slot money. Jordan was explicit that Hobgood wasn't a signability pick. Jordan is generally respected on this board so why is it inconveivable to so many that he might have had other players ranked higher than the over slot guys when making his picks?

[waroriole]

That is the point. The A's took the BPA on their board which happened to agree with the publications like BA. Jordan had a different board apparently.

So in a few years we'll see who had the better rankings, Jordan or the A's and BA.

Yet you are ready to throw Jordan's picks out the window b/c they don't match the board of the publication you read.

[Mad Mark]

Since we don't have the full picture in any of these cases, I think we're all spitting into the wind here...at least to an extent.

If I'm "negotiating" with a potential draftee, and he tells me he'd rather cut off his pitching arm than sign with my team, then I don't bother talking further with that guy.

If I'm "negotiating" with a potential draftee, and he tells me he's not signing with any team that doesn't pay significantly over slot for him--and acts like an ass while he's saying it--then I don't bother talking further with that guy.

Not only that, but in neither of those cases would I breathe a word to the press about what transpired between me and the potential draftee.

If MacPhail and Jordan are satisfied with the results of the Orioles' 2009 draft, who am I to argue with them?

[PeteCanes]

I'm looking at last year and this year. The A's have had a recent change in philosophy starting with the 2008 draft. And as you can see this year, they did not shy away from players with signability issues.

The Orioles had a watershed year under Duquette and Flanagan. It seemed the checkbook was open, the Orioles were aggressive in FA and the draft, not shying away from paying top dollar. There was no smoke and mirrors. Granted the results weren't all positive, but the Orioles weren't afraid to spend.

Now it seems under Andy MacPhail, the Orioles are much more hesitant to spend in general, even more so than teams like Tampa and Oakland, because MacPhail is adverse to taking risks, and spending money on fewer premium talent guys rather than spreading it out on lesser talent, is a risk.

So it seems like we've gone from one extreme to the other.

MacPhail has been great at making trades, but when it comes to adding talent in other areas, he leaves a lot to be desired. Duquette was much better at pursuing premium FA talent, and premium talent in general as he was willing to take risks.

The combination of both of those skills would make the perfect GM for the O's and any baseball team really.

Wow. You pretty much included every one of your favorite cliches in bulk.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is basically what Oakland did for the first few rounds. It will be interesting to compare strategies to see which one was more successful...

Yes, yes it will. Since nowhere in your analysis is there anything related to the quality of the players drafted, how these draft/international budgets fit into the organizational plan, or the overall success of the organization.

Your "analysis" can be boiled down to "more money >>>>> not as much money, except maybe when the O's spend more money".

[Moose Milligan]

Thanks for handling my lightwork everyone

JTrea, you've proved yourself to be an artful dodger yet again...

[JJLinn29]

Wow. You pretty much included every one of your favorite cliches in bulk.

He forgot "frugality".