How can you guys not be talking more about Sano?

[JTrea81]

I'm not talking about Payton. It wasn't a good contract. No matter what BigBird says.

I'm asking what the odds need to be to make a possible $100m ceiling worth $8m for a 16 year old.

I guess the obvious answer is something like 1:12.5. Or: an 8% chance.

But what if you can get that 8% chance for much cheaper?

It all depends on when you want to start taking risks to add talent to your club and build a competitive team. Sure you can wait for another player like Sano or better than Sano to come along and then sign him or you can scour the ends of the Dominican for a player that might be as good as Sano.

But then again, you might not ever find that player, or he may not want to sign with your club, and then you've missed out on that opportunity to add that talent to your club. Or you do find that player, but in that extra time you waited, Sano is already helping the club that signed him win ballgames.

Just ask the Pirates how they feel about missing out on Matt Wieters. Obvously at 16 Sano is a long way from Wieters' level and is much more of a risk, but his talent level supposedly has that potential. You don't want to be the club that passes on the next A-Rod or Pujols because they didn't want to pay an extra $1-2 million.

[Lucky Jim]

It all depends on when you want to start taking risks to add talent to your club and build a competitive team. Sure you can wait for another player like Sano or better than Sano to come along and then sign him or you can scour the ends of the Dominican for a player that might be as good as Sano.

But then again, you might not ever find that player, or he may not want to sign with your club, and then you've missed out on that opportunity to add that talent to your club. Or you do find that player, but in that extra time you waited, Sano is already helping the club that signed him win ballgames.

Sano is 16, so that last circumstance is unlikely. That said, you can see there are a lot of inputs here, and that the Orioles may read all of those probabilities differently from you. And that if they do, they may feel that Sano is worth, say, $4m but not $8m.

And if that's the case - that anything above $4m they feel is better spent getting replacement talent - then you can see why they might not follow your auction strategy?

I feel like we're getting somewhere here. Don't let me down.

[tywright]

Anybody find it refreshing that we are actually discussing signing a top Latin talent? Even if we can't sign Sano, it at least signals that we have made major strides in a department that we have ignored forever.

[PBR Street Gang]

Hanley Ramirez in his infancy was worth Josh Becket in his prime (basically). It would be nice to see Sano bat against some legit pitching.

[BringBackMagic]

Hanley Ramirez in his infancy was worth Josh Becket in his prime (basically). It would be nice to see Sano bat against some legit pitching.

Eh, I guess. My only problem with it is that the Marlins were in salary dump mode, didn't want to pay Lowell and knew they wouldn't be able to sign Beckett down the line.

Ramirez is incredible though. And if Sano turns out to be half the player Ramirez is now, I'd be thrilled.

[PBR Street Gang]

Eh, I guess. My only problem with it is that the Marlins were in salary dump mode, didn't want to pay Lowell and knew they wouldn't be able to sign Beckett down the line.

Ramirez is incredible though. And if Sano turns out to be half the player Ramirez is now, I'd be thrilled.

Isn't that the whole argument? Aren't you arguing JTrea's point now?

[BringBackMagic]

Isn't that the whole argument? Aren't you arguing JTrea's point now?

No. No I'm not. But if it really makes you feel good to think that, be my guest. If that is what you get from my post, I question your reading comprehension skills.

[stef]

http://masnsports.com/2009/06/more-sano-talk.html

I wish I hadn't read this... I'm getting my hopes up.

[Khaezh12]

http://masnsports.com/2009/06/more-sano-talk.html

I wish I hadn't read this... I'm getting my hopes up.

I think I'm going to treat this situation like I did the Tex one....get really excited and convince myself that he is 100% coming here, then get crushed when he doesn't, then hate him for an extended period of time.

Why change what I know works?

[PBR Street Gang]

It would make a serious statement if he were signed by the O's and developed into the next Hanley.

[Burg]

I can't wait for the inevitable meltdown by a certain few when Sano doesn't sign with the Orioles.

Good times.

[hoosiers]

I can't wait for the inevitable meltdown by a certain few when Sano doesn't sign with the Orioles.

Good times.

We'll see. It sure sounds like we will be major bidders.

If we are a preferred destination for Sano, it appears we could well land him.

[Greg Pappas]

I usually don't make these sort of predictions, but I think we'll sign him.

[Burg]

We'll see. It sure sounds like we will be major bidders.

If we are a preferred destination for Sano, it appears we could well land him.

I have no doubt that we have interest and that we will put together a solid bid.

I have a suspicion, however, that some club will "Tom Hicks" us by offering Sano a ridiculous amount of cash. The O's won't make a dumb bid, Sano will sign with someone else, and we'll get to hear ad nauseum about the cheap and stupid front office.

[Roll Tide]

I usually don't make these sort of predictions, but I think we'll sign him.

Is this based on anything other than opinion?