Anyone still want to make a compelling argument against rebuilding?

[theobird]

Really, I bet we do agree.

1) I think we should trade Tejada

2) Try to convince Mora to let us trade him

3) Put Huff at 3rd if Mora leaves

4) Shop Bedard and Roberts, but don't trade them for less than a great return

5) Look to upgrade 1B/DH and back up catcher

6) Pick up Millar's option

7) Insert Reimold in LF

8) Sign whichever one of the CF free agents doesn't look ridiculously overpriced

9) Find another good bullpen arm or two somewhere

10) Hold onto our young pitchers like they are gold

11) Use the starters that don't make the rotation next spring in the pen

12) Let Traschel, Wright, and Benson go bye bye

13) Adjust based on what the market and trades bring

14) Use Knott and House as bench players next year

15) Determine if House can perform adequately as the back up catcher between now and the end of the year

16) Determine how capable Knott is in the outfield between now and the end of the year

Are we way different?

Lets add this up, for the record. Thats 5 new guys in the pen. 3 starters who lose out in ST and two new arms. Tejada is gone, so we have a new SS. Huff at 3rd, Mora gone. Reimold is the new starter in LF. Knott and House are added to the bench. And at least one new guy to upgrade 1B/DH. Lets guess that one of Bedard/Roberts goes. Say its Roberts. That means new 2b. By my math that is at least 12 people turned over. And that is before we do any adjusting (item 13).

Now I went to college over 20 years ago, but even with new math that represents just under a 50% turnover, minimum. And after adjustments, probably closer to say....70%.

Blow it up!!!!!!

[Eight]

Here are some stats about our offense...I know, stats are dirty meaningless things but let's look at them anyway:

Total VORP for these players(-10...Below replacement level):

Gibbons

Bako

Payton

Hernandez

Hernandez

Gomez

Bynum

Fahey

Redman

Castillo

Total ab's: 1492....30% of our team ab's(not including pitchers).

Does that look good?

Of course not. But in a forward-looking analysis, I'm not sure how it's a terrible thing that a large portion of the players weighing down our offense can (theoretically) be replaced and upgraded by freely available talent. Whether or not we do that is a different issue, but the idea that we can upgrade the offense simply by getting replacement level production from spare parts points to a somewhat brighter outlook that some might suggest.

None of those players are cornerstones that we'll count on next season. The only ones that should be here on OD are R. Hernandez and maybe Bynum as a UTI.

AL ranks:

Runs scored: 11th

OPS: 8th

OBP: 7th

Slugging: 10th

homers: 11th

doubles: 7th

BA: 6th

Does this look like an offense that can compete?

runs: 599

EqR: 625

AEqR: 633

BaseRuns: 664

RC (ESPN): 618

RC (B-Ref): 625

Assuming we could construct a bullpen with a 4.00 ERA (still worse than average), it's not particularly unlikely, and that's before accounting for upgrades.

Before anyone jumps on me for being unrealistic, my expectations aren't that we compete next season. I think it's likely that we don't. But given even a few modest upgrades and smarter roster management, it certainly isn't impossible.

[Sports Guy]

Of course not. But in a forward-looking analysis, I'm not sure how it's a terrible thing that a large portion of the players weighing down our offense can (theoretically) be replaced and upgraded by freely available talent. Whether or not we do that is a different issue, but the idea that we can upgrade the offense simply by getting replacement level production from spare parts points to a somewhat brighter outlook that some might suggest.

Do you know how many years in a row we have said this?

But given even a few modest upgrades and smarter roster management, it certainly isn't impossible.

You have just touched on the impossible.

[Lucky Jim]

Well, at the risk of taking this thread elsewhere, but trying not to start another one, let me make two points.

1. We are VERY fortunate that Wieters wanted to play so badly that he ignored what I am sure was Boras' advice and signed. We screwed it up and are very lucky tocome out of it with a prospect. OTOH nobody would be on this board if it had not happened.

2. I don't see it discussed but is no one surprised/disappointed/upset at Mazzone's inability to do anything with any of the many pitchers that have been up down and released. Surely something should have been able to be done with some of them. I've seen nothing that indicates he's done anything to justify his salary or his reputation.

Thoughts?

Barry

I think 1. is way off. We're not lucky and we knew exactly what we were doing. Wieters had next to no leverage, which was the largely unspoken secret of the entire negotiations.

[Sports Guy]

Ahhh, maybe this is one of the issues. Maybe we're defining new differently. I wouldn't define Olson, Liz, and Penn in the pen as new since they are currently with the club. Same with Reimold, House, and Knott. I'm not saying my way of thinking right, just explaining what it was.

I can see 4 or 5 guys from the current 25 man roster being out of the organization next spring. Tejada, Trachsel, Bako, and a couple others.

I can see 5 - 7 guys that aren't currently on the 25 man roster now being there next spring. Reimold, Penn, Loewen and a few TBD

I consider 7 new guys out of 25 to be about 30%, but I see why other people would conclude that the 16 points I made are a higher turnover percentage.

But they are new...I think you were one of the guys who jumped on me for saying we should change over half the roster at the deadline.

Well, as i pointed out then, some of that had to do with promoting guys like Knott and House and things like that.

These are new guys to the roster and this would be getting rid of players on the team currently.

[Eight]

Do you know how many years in a row we have said this?

You have just touched on the impossible.

I hear what you're saying, and I don't particularly disagree. I was looking at the LF numbers a few weeks back and was amazed that it somehow got worse after the Conine/Fahey debacle in 2006. But if we can't even hope that they can find replacement level solutions, there's no plan in the world that they could execute to make us contenders.

[Sports Guy]

I hear what you're saying, and I don't particularly disagree. I was looking at the LF numbers a few weeks back and was amazed that it somehow got worse after the Conine/Fahey debacle in 2006. But if we can't even hope that they can find replacement level solutions, there's no plan in the world that they could execute to make us contenders.

Well, to be fair, this was done under the old regime, so maybe MacPhail won't be so poor at the job.

[Baltimoron]

SG or anybody else,

What does rebuilding mean?

A fire sale? Trading x players? Trading players over age y? etc..?

[Sports Guy]

SG or anybody else,

What does rebuilding mean?

A fire sale? Trading x players? Trading players over age y? etc..?

I don't think there is a simple answer to this.

A lot of questions need to be answered, the biggest one being Bedard and an extension or not.

For me, the Orioles need to bring in young positional talent, get deeper, more balanced and give more hope for the future.

We have good young pitching with a lot of upside.

But we have next to nothing position wise.

[RShack]

I don't think there is a simple answer to this.

A lot of questions need to be answered, the biggest one being Bedard and an extension or not.

For me, the Orioles need to bring in young positional talent, get deeper, more balanced and give more hope for the future.

We have good young pitching with a lot of upside.

But we have next to nothing position wise.

That's a very reasonable answer.

Are you still pushing to turn-over 80% of the starting lineup? Or was that just a debate-starter?

[Sports Guy]

That's a very reasonable answer.

Are you still pushing to turn-over 80% of the starting lineup? Or was that just a debate-starter?

As things stand right now we need a new LFer, Dh/1st baseman and CFer(assuming CPat is gone).

I would also like to see us trade Tejada, BRob and Mora.

So really, it depends on what we do to determine how much of the roster we should turn over.

End of the day, i would like to see a totally new IF, Reimold in LF and a new CFer.

[Baltimoron]

I don't think there is a simple answer to this.

A lot of questions need to be answered, the biggest one being Bedard and an extension or not.

For me, the Orioles need to bring in young positional talent, get deeper, more balanced and give more hope for the future.

We have good young pitching with a lot of upside.

But we have next to nothing position wise.

Perhaps you are confused?

I am asking what you mean by "rebuilding", as this thread is titled:

Anyone still want to make a compelling argument against rebuilding?

You had an idea as to what "rebuilding" meant when you started this thread, right?

[Sports Guy]

Perhaps you are confused?

I am asking what you mean by "rebuilding", as this thread is titled:

You had an idea as to what "rebuilding" meant when you started this thread, right?

Well, the obvious things...Get younger, shed salary...Provide more hope for the future.

Get rid of excess trash.

[bigbird]

As things stand right now we need a new LFer, Dh/1st baseman and CFer(assuming CPat is gone).

I would also like to see us trade Tejada, BRob and Mora.

So really, it depends on what we do to determine how much of the roster we should turn over.

End of the day, i would like to see a totally new IF, Reimold in LF and a new CFer.

Maybe you should just follow for a new team! You're probably a hoot in fantasy leagues.

[Sports Guy]

Maybe you should just follow for a new team! You're probably a hoot in fantasy leagues.

Hey, when things need to be changed, they need to be changed.

This is a bad team.