Harbor Park Effect

[wildcard]

A guy like Snyder takes the lesson, learns from it and improves. Hes the kinda guy who it affects positively in the long run. More mentally weaker players may not take failure so well, but players like that will fail inevitably anyway if they are that mentally weak. I never knew that Delmarva was a bad hitter's park though either...Thinking about it though, I cant remember the last 20 HR hitter we had at Marva.....Kolodny had like 13 a year ago if I remmeber right.

I hope you are right. However, Snyder probably goes back to Habor Park when the season starts this year. Will it continue to mess with him or does he find a way to deal with it? The proof is in the results. Stay tuned.

[QBsILLEST1]

I hope you are right. However, Snyder probably goes back to Habor Park when the season starts this year. Will it continue to mess with him or does he find a way to deal with it? The proof is in the results. Stay tuned.

I honestly hope he has a monster ST and hes in the OD lineup. Based on comments from him by Melewski, he sounds like he learned his lesson and will stick with his approach. It may be a bigger test for him in AAA than in the ML....

[Arthur_Bryant]

Determining the effects of a park on an individual hitter is tricky, especially when you're looking at half a season's data or less. Not only do the effects play against different hitters in different ways, but randomness and chance can exaggerate or mitigate the effects. (After all, the wind doesn't blow the same all the time, and hitters' spray charts--though predictable over the long haul--are subject to randomness). I remember in April, when people were starting to fret about Wieters's adjustment to AAA, that he had two or three long balls to right-center blown back at Harbor Park during a single home stand. If they go over the fence, he probably makes BA's Hot Sheet.

Snyder had 160 PA at Harbor Park. I have no idea how the variables affected his numbers, but a shift in outcomes once every 20 PAs--that is, turning eight fly outs and line outs into XBHs--makes his slash line start to look a lot better. You'd have to be unlucky to lose eight XBHs in half a season, but it's not outlandishly bad luck, and the fact is, we know that Snyder was unlucky--almost absurdly unlucky--if you consider his LD rate against his BABIP.

That also doesn't account for the park getting into a hitter's head and convincing him to change his approach.

Did all this happen? I don't know. Only someone who had watched all 160 of those PAs would know. When you're dealing with a sample of that size, there's no substitute for careful observation. The numbers alone can be next to meaningless.

[TheBandit]

Part of putting out data to try to explain or note something is that sometimes the data is critiqued as to how well it actually says what you are trying to make it say. Part of publishing that data in a forum is to have others look at it and think about it.

If you do not want people to comment on your personal studies then do not put it into a forum where people are responding to the content found in posts.

I wasn't attempting to tell you not to comment, but I am trying to tell you that this is the data sample that I went after. If you can find and want to post ballpark factors, feel free, but it won't come from me. The research was for my own purposes; I just simply published it for discussion.

[Frobby]

I'm not worried about Harbor Park messing up Snyder long term. I think he'll start in Norfolk this year, but he won't be there very long. I doubt the O's will need to see a .900 OPS from him to justify calling him up in May.

[wildcard]

I'm not worried about Harbor Park messing up Snyder long term. I think he'll start in Norfolk this year, but he won't be there very long. I doubt the O's will need to see a .900 OPS from him to justify calling him up in May.

Why because he hit AA pitching?

Or because he is AA+ pitching in the thin air at AFL.

I think he needs to hit well at AAA.

Otherwise if he struggles in the Majors the questions will be in the the back of his mind and everyone elses. He needs to earn his way to the majors.

Harbor Park is a hurtle. A needless, pitchers park that is not good for developing hitters. I hope he overcomes it.

[crowmst3k!]

I worry more about HP's effect on our young pitchers.

Leaving the ball up over the plate to no great risk at Harbor park would equal bad times at Camden Yards.

I think Tillman may have been affected by this early on (his first game he suffered from rocketshipitis).

[QSII]

The research was for my own purposes; I just simply published it for discussion.

Very interesting stats. Thanks for sharing.

[E2602]

Didn't mean to post.

[LookinUp]

Why because he hit AA pitching?

Or because he is AA+ pitching in the thin air at AFL.

I think he needs to hit well at AAA.

Otherwise if he struggles in the Majors the questions will be in the the back of his mind and everyone elses. He needs to earn his way to the majors.

Harbor Park is a hurtle. A needless, pitchers park that is not good for developing hitters. I hope he overcomes it.

I don't have any citations off hand, but the 2009 spring training reports about Snyder were also glowing. It's pretty unaminous that he has an advanced hit tool, just not that his hit tool plays at 1b. For example, if he could play 2b, cf, ss or even 3b, we'd all be even more excited to have him in the system. The guy can rake.

[QBsILLEST1]

I worry more about HP's effect on our young pitchers.

Leaving the ball up over the plate to no great risk at Harbor park would equal bad times at Camden Yards.

I think Tillman may have been affected by this early on (his first game he suffered from rocketshipitis).

Hmm, good point. So, HP allows pitchers to pitch up in the zone and keep the ball in the park, not good. The hitters should/can adjust, a pitcher cannot make himself become a GB pitcher if hes a fly ball pitcher without incorporating a good sinking fastball or 2 seamer of some sort.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I don't have any citations off hand, but the 2009 spring training reports about Snyder were also glowing. It's pretty unaminous that he has an advanced hit tool, just not that his hit tool plays at 1b. For example, if he could play 2b, cf, ss or even 3b, we'd all be even more excited to have him in the system. The guy can rake.

Trembley for one had some very nice things to say about Snyder as a hitter -- the kind of thing you rarely hear big league managers say about a High A player.

I think they like Snyder a lot, and I think he'll get a shot early in 2010.