Orioles Interested In Ryan Shealy

[TonySoprano]

Can someone summarize the 26 pages? Is there still hope on this deal?

No news. Shealy and Loewen.

Kotchman (again).

[Sports Guy]

This whole situation leaves me confused.

There's always so much crabbing on here about how the O's didn't get DLee, didn't get Delgado, didn't get Konerko.

Well here's a guy that just might hit like those guys, and do it for the league min for the next few years, and all he costs is a guy that a) may or may not even have much of a career, and b) is replaceable in the O's system.

Just because there is a guy out there that MAY do these things, that doesn't mean you trade more for him than you should. As i have said, Shealy is more likely to be Jason Lane than he is to be Derek Lee. Would you trade one of, if not, your best pitching prospect for Jason Lane dave??

The bottom line is Loewen is worth more than Shealy.

The Orioles should probably pull the trigger on Olson although i do understand the argument against it.

[RShack]

Summary. Looks like Rockies may have asked for Penn or Olson for Shealy. Sounds like O's said no, tried to pedal Javy & whoever and talks stalled. Most of the board likes Shealy, some more than others. Many are ready to say yes to Olson but no to Penn. Others have suggested that Loewen for Shealy would be worth it to. That's the latest debate but we don't even know if the Rockies even want Loewen. That's the short version.

Good summary. If I had tried to do the same thing, it woulda been at least 3 paragraphs ;-)

[markpolis]

Just because there is a guy out there that MAY do these things, that doesn't mean you trade more for him than you should. As i have said, Shealy is more likely to be Jason Lane than he is to be Derek Lee. Would you trade one of, if not, your best pitching prospect for Jason Lane dave??

The bottom line is Loewen is worth more than Shealy.

The Orioles should probably pull the trigger on Olson although i do understand the argument against it.

Davearm continues to have no problem trading our best prospects for great AAAA talent, but please don't ask him to trade any of his broken down Cubbie commodities for perhaps the best SS in baseball.

[markpolis]

BTW, I would do Olson for Shealy yesterday.

[KstateBird]

the rockies are unlikely to get a pitching prospect anywhere near as highly thought of as penn is.

if the rockies come to their senses and lower their cost, you make the deal. otherwise, let him hang out on their AAA roster.

[davearm]

Davearm continues to have no problem trading our best prospects for great AAAA talent, but please don't ask him to trade any of his broken down Cubbie commodities for perhaps the best SS in baseball.

Each time you refer to Shealy as a AAAA player, I become more convinced that you have no idea what you're talking about.

[davearm]

Just because there is a guy out there that MAY do these things, that doesn't mean you trade more for him than you should. As i have said, Shealy is more likely to be Jason Lane than he is to be Derek Lee. Would you trade one of, if not, your best pitching prospect for Jason Lane dave??

The bottom line is Loewen is worth more than Shealy.

The Orioles should probably pull the trigger on Olson although i do understand the argument against it.

Iterestingly enough, PECOTA lists none other than one Derrek Lee as Shealy's #1 most comparable player. That's right. The very top of the list.

Jason Lane is nowhere on the list.

But I'm sure you know better.

[Sports Guy]

Iterestingly enough, PECOTA lists none other than one Derrek Lee as Shealy's #1 most comparable player. That's right. The very top of the list.

Jason Lane is nowhere on the list.

But I'm sure you know better.

Good for PECOTA...When Lee played his first full season at the age of 27, he compiled an 887 OPS with 31 homers in a hitters park.

When he was 26, he had a 872 OPS and 27 homers in a hitters park.

He also had 40 steals in those 2 years and was very good defensively.

So, in other words, i could care less what PECOTA says here....The comparison stops that they are 2 men who play baseball, who happen to play the same position, bat right handed and are 6'5" and weigh close to 250lbs.

BTW, PECOTA also projects him to be a 825-850 OPS player.

[davearm]

Good for PECOTA...When Lee played his first full season at the age of 27, he compiled an 887 OPS with 31 homers in a hitters park.

When he was 26, he had a 872 OPS and 27 homers in a hitters park.

He also had 40 steals in those 2 years and was very good defensively.

So, in other words, i could care less what PECOTA says here....The comparison stops that they are 2 men who play baseball, who happen to play the same position, bat right handed and are 6'5" and weigh close to 250lbs.

BTW, PECOTA also projects him to be a 825-850 OPS player.

LOL!

So we only rely on PECOTA when it agrees with you.

Gotcha.

(And FWIW, I think 27 HRs and an 872 OPS would be plausible for Shealy this season, if he were to get 581 ML ABs)

[Sports Guy]

LOL!

So we only rely on PECOTA when it agrees with you.

Gotcha.

When did i ever say that?

I rarely mention PECOTA.

And, if PECOTA thinks Shealy will be a 825-850 OPS player and Derek Lee has only been that low ONCE since 2000, why on earth would anyone trust that comparison.

Why don't you use your brain for a second...Look at the stats...Tell me why that is a good comparison.

Remember where each player was at the ages, the parks and leagues they played...Think of Lee's speed and defense.

Tell me why that is a good comparison.

[66-70-83-??]

BTW, I would do Olson for Shealy yesterday.

Why would you give up this 1st round pitcher for what you say is a AAAA player ? That isn't being consistent.

Olson is more polished than Loewen and I believe will be a much better pitcher in the end.

I wouldn't trade Olson, Liz, or Penn for Shealy.

But, I would do Loewen or Johnson.

It is my opinion that Penn/Olson/Liz are going to be better than Loewen. I have seen them all pitch.

I just don't think Loewen will ever be consistant. Is there anything other than the hype that would lead you to believe otherwise ?

Shealy may not be the next Derek Lee or Ryan Howard, but I wouldn't call him AAAA material. Perhaps you aren't familiar with the term- it is usually reserved for players who tear up AAA but have had a few MLB opportunities and failed miserably.

Shealy didn't fail yet at the MLB level. He looked more ready for the show than Loewen did.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, Butch Huskey is also very high on that list.

Always some good and some bad guys on those lists.

[mweb]

LOL!

So we only rely on PECOTA when it agrees with you.

Gotcha.

(And FWIW, I think 27 HRs and an 872 OPS would be plausible for Shealy this season, if he were to get 581 ML ABs)

Well PECOTA predicted him to have an .874 OPS this year, so not far off there. And to have OPS' between .886 and .906 through 2010. I'd trade Olson for someone who can do that for us at 1B/DH through 2010, without paying him much.

[davearm]

When did i ever say that?

I rarely mention PECOTA.

And, if PECOTA thinks Shealy will be a 825-850 OPS player and Derek Lee has only been that low ONCE since 2000, why on earth would anyone trust that comparison.

Why don't you use your brain for a second...Look at the stats...Tell me why that is a good comparison.

Remember where each player was at the ages, the parks and leagues they played...Think of Lee's speed and defense.

Tell me why that is a good comparison.

WTF stats are *you* looking at???

Age 26

Lee (actual OPS): 0.872

Shealy (projected OPS): .0874

Difference +0.002

Age 27

Lee (actual): 0.887

Shealy (projected): .0895

Difference +0.008

Age 28

Lee (actual): 0.860

Shealy (projected): .0891

Difference +0.031

Age 29

Lee (actual): 1.080

Shealy (projected): 0.906

Difference -0.174

Age 30

Lee (projected): 0.954

Shealy (projected): .886

Difference -0.068

I dunno how that comparison could be any closer. PECOTA thinks these two will be essentially the exact same hitter for ages 26, 27, and 28 (Shealy actually a hair better). The main difference is that PECOTA doesn't project Shealy to take the quantum leap that Lee did at age 29 (and no forecasting system ever would).