Orioles Interested In Ryan Shealy

[Sports Guy]

WTF stats are *you* looking at???

Age 26

Lee (actual OPS): 0.872

Shealy (projected OPS): .0874

Difference +0.002

Age 27

Lee (actual): 0.887

Shealy (projected): .0895

Difference +0.008

Age 28

Lee (actual): 0.860

Shealy (projected): .0891

Difference +0.031

Age 29

Lee (actual): 1.080

Shealy (projected): 0.906

Difference -0.174

Age 30

Lee (projected): 0.954

Shealy (projected): .886

Difference -0.068

I dunno how that comparison could be any closer. PECOTA thinks these two will be essentially the exact same hitter for ages 26, 27, and 28 (Shealy actually a hair better). The main difference is that PECOTA doesn't project Shealy to take the quantum leap that Lee did at age 29 (and no forecasting system ever would).

Wait, on PECOTA, don't you look under "equivalents"?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/shealry01.php

I have seen OriolesDog and Drungo mention that PECOTA has him between 820-850....Is that wrong?

[davearm]

BTW, Butch Huskey is also very high on that list.

Always some good and some bad guys on those lists.

OK let's pretend you've got in your hand a standard six-sided die.

On three sides are the names of perennial All-Star sluggers (DLee, Hafner, and Sexson).

On one side is a guy that had a productive, but injury-shortened career (Huskey).

One the fifth side is a guy that started hot but flamed out quickly (Josh Phelps).

And on the last side is a guy that had a long but relatively undistinguished career (Deron Johnson).

You can roll that die, and take the player whose name comes up, entering (what figure to be) his prime years.

What it costs you, though, is a solid minor league arm.

Tell me you don't roll that die.

[Sports Guy]

OK let's pretend you've got in your hand a standard six-sided die.

On three sides are the names of perennial All-Star sluggers (DLee, Hafner, and Sexson).

On one side is a guy that had a productive, but injury-shortened career (Huskey).

One the fifth side is a guy that started hot but flamed out quickly (Josh Phelps).

And on the last side is a guy that had a long but relatively undistinguished career (Deron Johnson).

You can roll that die, and take the player whose name comes up, entering (what figure to be) his prime years.

What it costs you, though, is a solid minor league arm.

Tell me you don't roll that die.

I roll it..Just not for Loewen.

[davearm]

Wait, on PECOTA, don't you look under "equivalents"?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/shealry01.php

I have seen OriolesDog and Drungo mention that PECOTA has him between 820-850....Is that wrong?

I'm comparing DLee's actuals with Shealy's unadjusted projections.

[rolliefingers]

I roll it..Just not for Loewen.

Just depends whose POV you take more stock in. Some have Olson as one of the best arms in our entire system, others have Loewen rated higher.

I'm starting to think I'd trade Loewen before Olson. But again, you can make the argument several ways, and who knows, really?

[66-70-83-??]

I roll it..Just not for Loewen.

Let's look at Loewen's 6-sided die.

BP's most comparable players to Adam Loewen:

Corwin Malone

Adam Harben

Preston Larrison

Ty Howington

Luis Martinez

Phillip Dumatrait

Case closed- if Colorado sees this, they ain't rolling this die !

[RShack]

What's the longest thread ever? And how many posts/pages/whatever did it have?

[mweb]

Wait, on PECOTA, don't you look under "equivalents"?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/shealry01.php

I have seen OriolesDog and Drungo mention that PECOTA has him between 820-850....Is that wrong?

Go down a little further to 5 year forecast.

[Sports Guy]

I'm comparing DLee's actuals with Shealy's unadjusted projections.

So, when they are unadjusted...Does that mean they aren't park adjusted and things like that?

Seems to me that the equivalents would be what you go by..Correct?(i honestly don't know)

[Sports Guy]

Just depends whose POV you take more stock in. Some have Olson as one of the best arms in our entire system, others have Loewen rated higher.

I'm starting to think I'd trade Loewen before Olson. But again, you can make the argument several ways, and who knows, really?

Based on how he is rated and looked at, Loewen has more value..Maybe not every team agrees with that but overall, we can get more for Loewen than a soon to be 27 y/o prospect

[davearm]

So, when they are unadjusted...Does that mean they aren't park adjusted and things like that?

Seems to me that the equivalents would be what you go by..Correct?(i honestly don't know)

Using equvalents would presumably yield a more apples-to-apples comparison.

I wanted to list Lee's actual (unadjusted) OPS stats, so that I didn't have folks looking them up on ESPN or MLB or whatever and seeing different numbers, and telling me that my argument was all messed up b/c the stats were incorrect. Therefore I used Shealy's unadjusted figures as well.

[bigloe]

What's the longest thread ever? And how many posts/pages/whatever did it have?

This thread isn't even close to being done, and when it is, they will just open another 1 about the same topic.

[66-70-83-??]

Based on how he is rated and looked at, Loewen has more value..Maybe not every team agrees with that but overall, we can get more for Loewen than a soon to be 27 y/o prospect

I am not so sure about that.

Look at his actual results with an open mind. Is he performing at any level like he is front of the rotation material ?

If a team has interest in dealing for him now, it is because they think they can get him cheaply and take a flyer on him.

[Sports Guy]

Using equvalents would presumably yield a more apples-to-apples comparison.

I wanted to list Lee's actual (unadjusted) OPS stats, so that I didn't have folks looking them up on ESPN or MLB or whatever and seeing different numbers, and telling me that my argument was all messed up b/c the stats were incorrect. Therefore I used Shealy's unadjusted figures as well.

Drungo and OD, 2 posters that have used BP alot more than me(i just got a membership recently) have cited his equivalent OPS's as what to use.

Dave, i am not saying you are wrong but you asked me...WTF did you get those numbers at....That's where i got them.

[Sports Guy]

I am not so sure about that.

Look at his actual results with an open mind. Is he performing at any level like he is front of the rotation material ?

If a team has interest in dealing for him now, it is because they think they can get him cheaply and take a flyer on him.

Anyone using his limited major league time as a barometer for his value is wrong.

That is not how it works.