Orioles Interested In Ryan Shealy

[Just Regular]

Assuming they have interest in Javy, I'd be glad to get either Yorvit Torrealba or J. D. Closser back to settle the reserve catcher spot for the next few years.

Chris Iannetta at AA is looking for all the world like the long term starter for them.

[Fan4Life]

Did you see the thread on the minor league board where some unidentified NL scout was characterizing Olson as a two-pitch bullpen guy who couldn't go through a lineup twice? I wonder if it was some Rockies scout trying to get him devalued for this trade!

From BA:

Seems to me it would be difficult for the Rox to be lobbying for Olson instead of Liz when we can use thats source (perhaps their own) as to why they shouldnt want an inferior player.

[ejf1025]

It's basically a matter of risk assessment.

Olson could be Tim Byrdak or Tom Glavine.

Shealy could be Jack Cust or Ryan Howard.

But one is a 22 yr old, LHP in his second pro season and the other is a 26 yr old, DH in (4? 5?) pro season.

I would argue that Shealy's success at higher levels makes him the safer bet to reach his potential, so a Shealy for Olson swap is not "unfair." It's just a trade I feel the O's should turn down.

[Sports Guy]

It's basically a matter of risk assessment.

Olson could be Tim Byrdak or Tom Glavine.

Shealy could be Jack Cust or Ryan Howard.

But one is a 22 yr old, LHP in his second pro season and the other is a 26 yr old, DH in (4? 5?) pro season.

I would argue that Shealy's success at higher levels makes him the safer bet to reach his potential, so a Shealy for Olson swap is not "unfair." It's just a trade I feel the O's should turn down.

For me, i look at Olson as a guy who could be part of another package.

Say, the second pitcher in a deal for Carl Crawford. That is why i don't want to do it.

[ejf1025]

For me, i look at Olson as a guy who could be part of another package.

Say, the second pitcher in a deal for Carl Crawford. That is why i don't want to do it.

I agree with this.

Now, the question becomes what does Bedard's last 3 starts do to his chances of being the first pitcher in that swap....

Damn, inconsistent pitchers...they're killing me.

Plus, with the way we hit lefties you just know Bedard would absolutely OWN us.

[Frobby]

It's basically a matter of risk assessment.

Olson could be Tim Byrdak or Tom Glavine.

Shealy could be Jack Cust or Ryan Howard.

But one is a 22 yr old, LHP in his second pro season and the other is a 26 yr old, DH in (4? 5?) pro season.

I would argue that Shealy's success at higher levels makes him the safer bet to reach his potential, so a Shealy for Olson swap is not "unfair." It's just a trade I feel the O's should turn down.

Olson is the slightly better long term risk if all you look at is the two players. But we have Bedard, Cabrera, Penn and Loewen, plus Johnson and Liz. We have no 1B and no prospect in sight. That is why you have to consider this deal.

[ejf1025]

Olson is the slightly better long term risk if all you look at is the two players. But we have Bedard, Cabrera, Penn and Loewen, plus Johnson and Liz. We have no 1B and no prospect in sight. That is why you have to consider this deal.

Consider...and then say no.

None of those pitchers are proven/reliable. Shealy will prob not be a 1B very long.

As I said, if he was a good fielder it would be a different story.

[Sports Guy]

I agree with this.

Now, the question becomes what does Bedard's last 3 starts do to his chances of being the first pitcher in that swap....

Damn, inconsistent pitchers...they're killing me.

Plus, with the way we hit lefties you just know Bedard would absolutely OWN us.

This would be my plan, as of right now:

Tejada, Hawkins and Gibbons for Wood, Kotchman, Santana, Shields, OCab and Mathis.

Javy, Finch and cash for Shealy.

Trade Benson to Houston, St Louis, LA, Ari, Det or Tex for a top pitching prospect....Take that pitching prospect, along with 2 of Olson, Liz, Britton and JJ for Crawford.

Deal Rodrigo, hopefully Chen and Conine and possibly Millar for what you can get.

End result:

1st- Kotchman

2nd- BRob

SS- OCab(Wood takes over in 2007...OCab dealt in offseason for whatever)

3rd- Mora

LF- Crawford

CF- CPat

RF- Markakis

DH- Shealy

C- Hernandez

bench: Millar(if not dealt), Mathis, Matos(could deal him as well), Newhan and Gomez....Fahey on the team if either Millar or Matos is dealt.

Rotation:

Santana

Bedard

DC

Loewen

Penn

BP:

Ray

Shields

Rleal

Britton(if not dealt)

anything else you may obtain in trade or players you bring up.

I would love to see that team.

[ejf1025]

This would be my plan, as of right now:

Tejada, Hawkins and Gibbons for Wood, Kotchman, Santana, Shields, OCab and Mathis.

Javy, Finch and cash for Shealy.

Trade Benson to Houston, St Louis, LA, Ari, Det or Tex for a top pitching prospect....Take that pitching prospect, along with 2 of Olson, Liz, Britton and JJ for Crawford.

Deal Rodrigo, hopefully Chen and Conine and possibly Millar for what you can get.

End result:

1st- Kotchman

2nd- BRob

SS- OCab(Wood takes over in 2007...OCab dealt in offseason for whatever)

3rd- Mora

LF- Crawford

CF- CPat

RF- Markakis

DH- Shealy

C- Hernandez

bench: Millar(if not dealt), Mathis, Matos(could deal him as well), Newhan and Gomez....Fahey on the team if either Millar or Matos is dealt.

Rotation:

Santana

Bedard

DC

Loewen

Penn

BP:

Ray

Shields

Rleal

Britton(if not dealt)

anything else you may obtain in trade or players you bring up.

I would love to see that team.

What prospect are you getting for Benson? I'm not sure if he can net a prospect good enough to put onto that Crawford deal.

[NoVaO]

I also want to bring up the Hafner comparison.

Both played in the PCL.

The Shealy comparison to Hafner holds much more weight than the Shealy to Cust comparison.

Shealy, AA - .318/.411/.584/.995, 469 ABs, 123 Ks, 32 doubles, 29 HRs

Hafner, AA - .282/.396/.545/.941, 323 ABs, 82 Ks, 25 doubles, 20 HRs

Shealy, AAA - .328/.393/.601/.994, 411 ABs, 81 Ks, 30 doubles, 26 HRs

Hafner, AAA - .342/.463/.559/1.022, 401 ABs, 76 Ks, 22 doubles, 21 HRs

Now, Hafner's AAA season is almost exactly the same as his high-A ball season. So, perhaps the .282 season in AA was an outlier. He has settled in at around .305 in the majors.

If projecting Shealy, you have a .318 season, a .299 season, and a .328 season. Shealy perhaps may be able to top out as a .300 hitter, but a .285 hitter seems to be the most realistic average if projecting it.

Shealy has shown more power than Hafner during their time in the minors. However, Hafner has gained Shealy's minor league power in the majors. You could see Shealy keep that minor league power in the majors. I said a .470 - .500 originally...but he could top out at maybe .580, or more realistically .550.

Hafner has the better batting eye. His OBP is consistently about 110 points higher than his average. Shealy has ranged anywhere from 60 - 100 points higher.

The K rate is interesting. Shealy had his worst K rate in AA, striking out once every 3.8 at bats. Hafner's worst K rate was in AA, striking out once every 3.9 at bats. But then both move up to about 5 at bats every K in AAA. Right now, Shealy is at about 6 at bats every K. Hafner strikes out about once every 4 at bats.

I've never seen Shealy play, but if scouts are confident that Shealy compares to Hafner not just statisically, but in talent, then we should definitely be willing to give up Olson for Shealy, but only if I had to.

[Sports Guy]

What prospect are you getting for Benson? I'm not sure if he can net a prospect good enough to put onto that Crawford deal.

That prospect is gettign better and better...I think Reyes from St Louis, Hirsch from Houston, maybe Billingsley from LA, although that is unlikely...Who knows...You may be right though...We may just have to keep that prospect and put Penn or Loewen in the deal...Not sure.

But every great start from Benson ups his value right now and if we can deal him and spin that into a Crawford deal, that would be great.

That is the part of my plan that is the real tough part. If that doesn't happen, we can always keep Benson in the rotation and just have LF as a hole right now and see how Reimold finishes or sign a Cat/Marrero platoon in the offseason.

[ejf1025]

That prospect is gettign better and better...I think Reyes from St Louis, Hirsch from Houston, maybe Billingsley from LA, although that is unlikely...Who knows...You may be right though...We may just have to keep that prospect and put Penn or Loewen in the deal...Not sure.

But every great start from Benson ups his value right now and if we can deal him and spin that into a Crawford deal, that would be great.

That is the part of my plan that is the real tough part. If that doesn't happen, we can always keep Benson in the rotation and just have LF as a hole right now and see how Reimold finishes or sign a Cat/Marrero platoon in the offseason.

The same Reyes who just threw a 1-hitter last night and was the top prospect in all their system?

That's quite a jump from Jorge Julio and John Maine.

Benson's pitched well but I can't imagine Billingsley or Reyes coming back (don't know much about Hirsch)....

I mean, DRays got Kazmir for Zambrano so you never know...but I just don't see that going down.

[Sports Guy]

The same Reyes who just threw a 1-hitter last night and was the top prospect in all their system?

That's quite a jump from Jorge Julio and John Maine.

Benson's pitched well but I can't imagine Billingsley or Reyes coming back (don't know much about Hirsch)....

I mean, DRays got Kazmir for Zambrano so you never know...but I just don't see that going down.

They were thinking they would trade Reyes for Craig Wilson.

[ejf1025]

They were thinking they would trade Reyes for Craig Wilson.

Wow. That's borderline Special Ed if you ask me...

[ejf1025]

See if they'll do Reyes for Gibbons then...keep Benson.