Is Confidence In Winning A Barrier To Sucess?

[Old#5fan]

Last night I watched most of the MLB Network telecast of the Orioles/Pirates game and the Pirate commentators said something that made me wonder. They said that while winning a ST game is essentially meaningless there is one aspect that is important and that is building confidence in a team (especially a young team) that they can win games on a regular basis. As such, they said it would be a help in that regard for the Orioles to win their 2nd game of the Grapefruit season.

I think they are probably right on this and it makes me wonder how a young team like the Orioles can be confident of winning when they haven't done so? In fact, they haven't had a winning season in over a dozen years and how do they over come this confidence factor barrier that would seem inherent to losing teams?

Maybe I missed it but I don't recall this being discusssed much here as a topic or even a concern.

[Miller192]

Last night I watched most of the MLB Network telecast of the Orioles/Pirates game and the Pirate commentators said something that made me wonder. They said that while winning a ST game is essentially meaningless there is one aspect that is important and that is building confidence in a team (especially a young team) that they can win games on a regular basis. As such, they said it would be a help in that regard for the Orioles to win their 2nd game of the Grapefruit season.

I think they are probably right on this and it makes me wonder how a young team like the Orioles can be confident of winning when they haven't done so? In fact, they haven't had a winning season in over a dozen years and how do they over come this confidence factor barrier that would seem inherent to losing teams?

Maybe I missed it but I don't recall this being discusssed much here as a topic or even a concern.

Wieters, Matusz, Jones, Tillman, Riemold, etc haven't lost much either. Why would they not be confident that they can win? Because Steve Kline and Sammy Sosa couldn't?

[VAB2110]

There's no magic formula, they just have to go do it. You bring together enough talent, maybe you get a break or two and you do it.

[Frobby]

I think it matters somewhat. Not so much right now, but you'd like to finish spring training by winning your share of games over the last 2-3 weeks.

Most of our young players had winning experiences in the minors at Frederick and Bowie, and each of the vets we acquired has been a key part of a playoff team in the past, so I'm not too worried that the team's confidence will be fragile.

[scottbbfm]

I watched the Yankees on MLB network this past weekend and the announcers asked Ghirardi how important it was to win games. He said he likes to win the games, have people used to winning. He also said that its more important to make sure things are done correctly at the end of the games - moving runners over, etc.

I don't think Matt Wieters and co are particulary concerned with being 2-6 - its not like any of those guys are in at the end of the game anyway. If the team goes 0-7 in the last week of ST - I'd be more concerned.

Also, all these young guys were on very successful teams in the minors. Last year was really their first time to experience losing.

So my opinion - yes its important to win some games in ST, but in the first 10 games, it doesn't make an ounce of difference.

[flashjordnk]

I think this is actually some pretty reasonable analysis by the OP. But I think it's more like momentum. Big wins at big times can create more momentum than beating the KC Royals 10 times.

Momentum is a tricky tricky thing and there is no good way to say when it will strike, help or hurt, see the Orioles run a few summers ago before Tejada/Pameiro/Sosagate.

But I don't think they go in thinking about the win. Bergeson wants to work on his location. Milwood his changeup. Matusz his fastball. They all have something they want to get out of a ST game that might not be winning but could lead to winning.

Once the regular season starts I think this analysis is a lot more meaningful because I think most guys would sacrifice part of their game to win and thus the losing really starts to take its toll.

[waroriole]

Last night I watched most of the MLB Network telecast of the Orioles/Pirates game and the Pirate commentators said something that made me wonder. They said that while winning a ST game is essentially meaningless there is one aspect that is important and that is building confidence in a team (especially a young team) that they can win games on a regular basis. As such, they said it would be a help in that regard for the Orioles to win their 2nd game of the Grapefruit season.

I think they are probably right on this and it makes me wonder how a young team like the Orioles can be confident of winning when they haven't done so? In fact, they haven't had a winning season in over a dozen years and how do they over come this confidence factor barrier that would seem inherent to losing teams?Maybe I missed it but I don't recall this being discusssed much here as a topic or even a concern.

I actually agree with this, but hope you don't get alot of flak b/c of who you are. There certainly has been a culture of losing here for a while, but alot of the guys on this team haven't been a part of that. Hopefully, guys like Bergy, Wieters, Reimold etc. will not be affected by this culture and can help establish a new culture of believing in yourself and expecting to win. That said, the more talent you have on your team the less that things like this matter.

[KAZ97]

Question: if you were asked to predict the Orioles record for 2010 what type of information would you want? An estimate of the talent of the team, probably. Maybe some information about opposing teams, sure. How far down on the list would "what was their record from March 1 - March 11 in spring training games?" be. Pretty far down, I hope.

[waroriole]

Question: if you were asked to predict the Orioles record for 2010 what type of information would you want? An estimate of the talent of the team, probably. Maybe some information about opposing teams, sure. How far down on the list would "what was their record from March 1 - March 11 in spring training games?" be. Pretty far down, I hope.

I agree that it's not the first thing that you look at, but it's also difficult to analyze b/c it can't be measured? At least in some way, the confidence that players have contributes to their play on the field. How many games does that difference make? Who knows.

[Old#5fan]

Question: if you were asked to predict the Orioles record for 2010 what type of information would you want? An estimate of the talent of the team, probably. Maybe some information about opposing teams, sure. How far down on the list would "what was their record from March 1 - March 11 in spring training games?" be. Pretty far down, I hope.

I agree with you 100 percent if this was a veteran team that was used to winning - see Yankees, NY or Red Sox, Boston. However, on a young team I must admit I do worry a bit about confidence being a factor upon giving it some thought.

[Jurczak]

I don't think there's really any correlation, much less causation, to winning preseason exhibition games and winning regular season games. Especially since large parts of the games are being played by minor leaguers and the objectives are different, especially for pitchers. The 2008 Detroit Lions went 4-0 in the preseason and using hindsight I would argue that they didn't exactly "learn how to win" or "build momentum." Spring training is about getting back into the rhythm of baseball, working on a new pitch or maybe learning a new position, and evaluating players.

[Old#5fan]

I don't think there's really any correlation, much less causation, to winning preseason exhibition games and winning regular season games. Especially since large parts of the games are being played by minor leaguers and the objectives are different, especially for pitchers. The 2008 Detroit Lions went 4-0 in the preseason and using hindsight I would argue that they didn't exactly "learn how to win" or "build momentum." Spring training is about getting back into the rhythm of baseball, working on a new pitch or maybe learning a new position, and evaluating players.

So the regular season is where they need to build the confidence by winning?

[Flosman]

I am confused the O's corrected themselves after you pointed out to them that if they played like they did in the first game they would have no chance in the regular season. The young guys have all followed instruction and shouldn't win another game all ST, meaning they are a lock to win atleast 125+ regular season games. I mean how can you lose with all of the slumps out of the way in ST. Now your saying this is all wrong also. You are hard to follow on what ST games really mean???

[byrdz]

I take a losing record as a good sign considering the Orioles always seem to do well in ST and then tank the regular season. It's not like that confidence helped them in the past.

[Jurczak]

So the regular season is where they need to build the confidence by winning?

Why do you think that our players lack confidence? I haven't seen any interviews with players that denote a lack of confidence. I haven't heard Brian Matusz or Chris Tillman or Matt Wieters say "Aw shucks, I'm not sure if I'm able to compete and this level. I've never won anything in my career, why would I be able to start now?"

I think this team is very confident in their abilities, from what I've read. I don't think their psyches are so fragile that a few spring training losses are going to prevent the growth of our young players.