Orioles... The Likeliest First-Round Candidates

[Greg Pappas]

I'll begin this thread by saying that Bryce Harper will not be available, so he has been removed from consideration. Basing my information on a variety of industry reports, discussions, and an educated guess, I'd like to review the most likely candidates the Orioles would select come this Monday... Day One of the MLB Draft.

Things could be simple if Washington -as expected- takes Bryce Harper, and Pittsburgh passes on Texas prep right-hander Jamison Taillon... as the Orioles - by every indication- would select "Jamo".

The fun could begin if both Harper and Taillon are off the board at pick three. This is a very real possibility.

If those two players are gone, the Orioles would most likely select from among the following three players... Miami prep SS Manny Machado, Cal-State Fullerton SS/2B Christian Colon, and Mississippi left-hander Drew Pomeranz.

Under this scenario, Machado seems the consensus choice, with Colon and Pomeranz distant possibilities. Naturally, the O's will wind up taking 'None of the Above', and I'll be left feeling like the outsider I truly am.

[PBR Street Gang]

Thanks Greg.

I have a feeling that Jordan has settled on basically what he's "supposed to" pick. I doubt if he surprises this year. I think his job is riding on this draft and rightfully so. He'll do the "safe" pick and go with either Taillon or Machado.

All I care about is whether the 1-3 pick is a franchise changer. I'm not sold on either of those 2 guys. The hype isn't matching up with the results.

Just a hunch fellas, FWIW.

[JTrea81]

Greg, you don't think Cox will be in that equation? I would think since he's the most polished college bat, the O's would have their eye on him...

[AgentOrange]

Greg, you don't think Cox will be in that equation? I would think since he's the most polished college bat, the O's would have their eye on him...

If he is not the BPA at 1:3, then no.

[McNulty]

If he is not the BPA at 1:3, then no.

.

He's not.

[allstar1579]

.

He's not.

+1

Not even close.

[Avsfan]

Greg, you don't think Cox will be in that equation? I would think since he's the most polished college bat, the O's would have their eye on him...

You need to give this one a rest Trea...ain't happenin. You don't draft a mid-late 1st round pick at #3.

[PBR Street Gang]

Wow, Trea has a lot of followers.

[RVAbird]

Greg, you don't think Cox will be in that equation? I would think since he's the most polished college bat, the O's would have their eye on him...

If he is not the BPA at 1:3, then no.

.

He's not.

+1

Not even close.

He's not, but as much as I disagree with JTrea's general draft philosophies, I would still take Cox over Pomeranz and probably Machado as well.

If Jamo is off the board at 1:3, Karsten Whitson is the BPA IMO, and he wasn't even mentioned in the OP. Why not get outraged at Greg's suggestions?

Note: Not that I am advocating outrage at Greg JTrea tends to annoy a lot of people very easily, I just think it's worth throwing Cox' name into the pool of those previously mentioned. I think most of them are mid-first rounders in a good draft class.

[RVAbird]

Thanks Greg.

I have a feeling that Jordan has settled on basically what he's "supposed to" pick. I doubt if he surprises this year. I think his job is riding on this draft and rightfully so. He'll do the "safe" pick and go with either Taillon or Machado.

All I care about is whether the 1-3 pick is a franchise changer. I'm not sold on either of those 2 guys. The hype isn't matching up with the results.

Just a hunch fellas, FWIW.

Believe me when I say I am not trying to spark some immature banter or anything like that.

I'm genuinely curious, who do you think will be available at 1:3 that is a "franchise changer?" I'm surmising from your posting history that you think that's Pomeranz? How do you project him?

[allstar1579]

He's not, but as much as I disagree with JTrea's general draft philosophies, I would still take Cox over Pomeranz and probably Machado as well.

If Jamo is off the board at 1:3, Karsten Whitson is the BPA IMO, and he wasn't even mentioned in the OP. Why not get outraged at Greg's suggestions?

Note: Not that I am advocating outrage at Greg JTrea tends to annoy a lot of people very easily, I just think it's worth throwing Cox' name into the pool of those previously mentioned. I think most of them are mid-first rounders in a good draft class.

Yeah the problem is there is 1 and 2, and then numbers 3-15 or so are about dead even for different reasons, so you are taking a guy at 3 that could just as easily go mid-late first. Given, I'm exaggerating a little bit, but really not much.

Cox wouldn't even be in the discussion before 10 if this was a normal year, people are getting fixated on guys like him and Pomeranz just because they are the best of the rest. Brentz has more power potential than Cox I think (little worse hitting) but some mocks don't even have him in the first. This is not a good year for college players, the HS talent is head and shoulders ahead of them this year IMO of course.

[jamesenoch]

Greg, you don't think Cox will be in that equation? I would think since he's the most polished college bat, the O's would have their eye on him...

Well, Baseball America thinks highly of him :

In the Top 200 ranking of draft prospects, they have Cox at #6.

6. Zack Cox, 3b

Arkansas

Cox is the best pure hitter and top sophomore-eligible player in the draft. He hit just .266 as a freshman on Arkansas' College World Series team a year ago, but improved as the season went on and adjusted his pull-happy approach when he arrived in the Cape Cod League. He hit .344 with wood bats and ranked as the top position prospect in the summer circuit, setting the stage for a breakout spring in which he was hitting .446/.532/.631 through mid-May. Cox has very good hands, a short, lefty stroke and nice command of the strike zone. He has an uncanny ability to hit the ball with authority to the opposite field. There's some debate as to how much power he'll have in the major leagues, but he has the bat speed to do damage once he adds more loft to his swing. He has plenty of strength, as evidenced by a titanic shot he blasted off the top of a 90-foot-tall scoreboard at the 2009 Southeastern Conference tournament. Six feet and 215 pounds, Cox is a decent athlete with fringy speed and range at third base. Not all scouts are sold on his defensive ability. He does have a strong arm—he threw in the low 90s as a reliever a year ago—and will put in the work to improve his reactions at third base. He also has seen time at second base, and one scout said his actions looked better there, but his athleticism is more suited for the hot corner. Cox turned down an $800,000 offer as a Dodgers 20th-round pick out of high school, and he's in line to make two or three times as much as a top 10 choice this June.

In the June 2nd draft chat, here was this question concerning Cox.

Jeff (NY): Is Cox going to hit for power at the pro level? Seems like he is projected very high for someone with marginal power.

John Manuel: Seems like Cox catches a lot of heat for a college bat hitting .400+ in the nation's deepest conference, and a lot of heat for a guy who hit .344 in the Cape. Usually people question us the other way; why isn't the guy who hit .344 in the Cape a big prospect? I don't think this is Sean Burroughs II here guys. He sold out for power last year and hit .266; this year he used the whole field more and raked. His power might take longer to develop but I believe in the bat and believe he'll eventually develop average-to-plus power because he's that good of a hitter. Here's one evaluator: "He's got the shortest, flattest swing in the league that I've seen in a long time. He's very tough to pitch to because it's a real challenge to get him off-balance." I've heard that kind of thing too many times and put more stock in the scouting reports than his college isolated power.

Finally, in Jim Callis’ Mock Draft V. 2.0, he has Zack Cox going #7 to the Mets.

[Stotle]

Well, Baseball America thinks highly of him :

In the Top 200 ranking of draft prospects, they have Cox at #6.

6. Zack Cox, 3b

Arkansas

Cox is the best pure hitter and top sophomore-eligible player in the draft. He hit just .266 as a freshman on Arkansas' College World Series team a year ago, but improved as the season went on and adjusted his pull-happy approach when he arrived in the Cape Cod League. He hit .344 with wood bats and ranked as the top position prospect in the summer circuit, setting the stage for a breakout spring in which he was hitting .446/.532/.631 through mid-May. Cox has very good hands, a short, lefty stroke and nice command of the strike zone. He has an uncanny ability to hit the ball with authority to the opposite field. There's some debate as to how much power he'll have in the major leagues, but he has the bat speed to do damage once he adds more loft to his swing. He has plenty of strength, as evidenced by a titanic shot he blasted off the top of a 90-foot-tall scoreboard at the 2009 Southeastern Conference tournament. Six feet and 215 pounds, Cox is a decent athlete with fringy speed and range at third base. Not all scouts are sold on his defensive ability. He does have a strong arm—he threw in the low 90s as a reliever a year ago—and will put in the work to improve his reactions at third base. He also has seen time at second base, and one scout said his actions looked better there, but his athleticism is more suited for the hot corner. Cox turned down an $800,000 offer as a Dodgers 20th-round pick out of high school, and he's in line to make two or three times as much as a top 10 choice this June.

In the June 2nd draft chat, here was this question concerning Cox.

Jeff (NY): Is Cox going to hit for power at the pro level? Seems like he is projected very high for someone with marginal power.

John Manuel: Seems like Cox catches a lot of heat for a college bat hitting .400+ in the nation's deepest conference, and a lot of heat for a guy who hit .344 in the Cape. Usually people question us the other way; why isn't the guy who hit .344 in the Cape a big prospect? I don't think this is Sean Burroughs II here guys. He sold out for power last year and hit .266; this year he used the whole field more and raked. His power might take longer to develop but I believe in the bat and believe he'll eventually develop average-to-plus power because he's that good of a hitter. Here's one evaluator: "He's got the shortest, flattest swing in the league that I've seen in a long time. He's very tough to pitch to because it's a real challenge to get him off-balance." I've heard that kind of thing too many times and put more stock in the scouting reports than his college isolated power.

Finally, in Jim Callis’ Mock Draft V. 2.0, he has Zack Cox going #7 to the Mets.

Even with all that, if you talk to him, Callis will tell you BAL should not select Cox...

[PBR Street Gang]

Believe me when I say I am not trying to spark some immature banter or anything like that.

I'm genuinely curious, who do you think will be available at 1:3 that is a "franchise changer?" I'm surmising from your posting history that you think that's Pomeranz? How do you project him?

From what I've read, teams are just as likely to get the best(second best) player in the draft at pick 20 as pick 2.

Pomeranz walk rate is scary for a "developed" arm. Folty might be the best of all of them, but he'd be a "reach" no? Our (O's fans) lot is to take the next best big thing that conventional wisdom says we should.

Would you rather have Matt Cain or Adam Loewen right now? Wade Townsend or Jared Weaver or Phil Hughes? Billy Rowell or Joe Jordan greatest miss? Matt Hobgood or A.) B.) C.) D.) or E.)?

I'm worried. None of us will know for months whether it's a "great" pick.

[jamesenoch]

Even with all that, if you talk to him, Callis will tell you BAL should not select Cox...

I agree. I am just saying that I get the impression from BA that Cox is a Top 10 pick, so I don't think its that much of a stretch.

By the way, in their latest pseudo-mock draft conducted by 3 BA writers, John Manual has us picking Machado after Pittsburg picks Taillon :

3. ORIOLES (John). To borrow a phrase from Dayton Moore, Orioles fans have to trust the process. It's taking longer than it seems like it should, but Baltimore is rebuilding and has strong pieces up the middle in Adam Jones and Matt Wieters. Adding Manny Machado with this pick would make too much sense. The organization has a giant hole at shortstop, though Machado isn't a need pick—he's the best player on the board. There's an argument to be made for Mississippi lefthander Drew Pomeranz, who could move quickly and be an effective complement to Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Co. But Baltimore's inability to develop a shortstop, combined with Machado's defensive tools and power potential, make him the best choice here.