Looks like it will be Taillon or Machado

[Sports Guy]

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/2010/06/feeling_the_draft.html

[mcgraw238]

In my opinion, this is the appropriate course to take as this draft is Harper, then Taillon/Machado and everyone else.

Monday's Draft is essentially a three-player showcase -- Harper, Machado, Taillon. "After that," said one National League general manager, "there's virtually no difference between the fourth and 44th picks. So in many ways, it's really a scouts' Draft. If your scouts are really good, you will be fine, except that it will be expensive."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100605&content_id=10825492&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Taillon is my top choice but Machado sounds like a big time prospect that should make a very nice #2 hitter with above average power as a SS.

[Stotle]

Taillon is my top choice but Machado sounds like a big time prospect that should make a very nice #2 hitter with above average power as a SS.

He better be a #3/#4 hitter if you're giving him his asking price.

[Duke2010]

I suspect that if Machado is the pick, his asking price will at least be what Donovan Tate received last year, which I believe was around 6M.

I'm not sure if Machado is worth that price, but I'd be happy to have his talents within the organization.

[mcgraw238]

He better be a #3/#4 hitter if you're giving him his asking price.

I don't think he's a #3/#4 no matter what the asking price. But he is an advanced bat that plays a premium position. We'll have to see how the negotiations play out. If he wants a record breaking contract, then I think he may end up on the short end of the stick. No way I give him Wieters type money. If I'm Jordan, I take a ton of above slot opportunities with the intent of allocating the additional resources in that direction and a handful of Dominican prospects in things with Boras go south. A worst case scenerio of having #1 and #4 next year is not such a bad thing given the talent in that draft. In the end, I don't think Boras and Co. are going to pass up something in the neighborhood of $4-4.5 million.

I agree with Duke above that Tate will be used by Boras as the comp. I'd argue that the price should be something less as Tate was a 2 sport kid that was leaning football without such a strong offer by the Padres.

[Sports Guy]

He better be a #3/#4 hitter if you're giving him his asking price.

He has to be worth 1.5-2 WAR to be worth it...Not exactly a lot.

[RVAbird]

In my opinion, this is the appropriate course to take as this draft is Harper, then Taillon/Machado and everyone else.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100605&content_id=10825492&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Taillon is my top choice but Machado sounds like a big time prospect that should make a very nice #2 hitter with above average power as a SS.

I respectfully disagree. Machado is much closer to the 3rd-15th cluster than to the Harper/Taillon realm in my opinion. Consensus be damned.

[mcgraw238]

I respectfully disagree. Machado is much closer to the 3rd-15th cluster than to the Harper/Taillon realm in my opinion. Consensus be damned.

I tend to agree that there is separation between Harper and Taillon but you have K. Law ranking the kid #2 and the quote in the Gammons article from an NL GM in my post above.

[Lucky Jim]

I respectfully disagree. Machado is much closer to the 3rd-15th cluster than to the Harper/Taillon realm in my opinion. Consensus be damned.

This is where I stand, too.

[Stotle]

I don't think he's a #3/#4 no matter what the asking price. But he is an advanced bat that plays a premium position. We'll have to see how the negotiations play out. If he wants a record breaking contract, then I think he may end up on the short end of the stick. No way I give him Wieters type money. If I'm Jordan, I take a ton of above slot opportunities with the intent of allocating the additional resources in that direction and a handful of Dominican prospects in things with Boras go south. A worst case scenerio of having #1 and #4 next year is not such a bad thing given the talent in that draft. In the end, I don't think Boras and Co. are going to pass up something in the neighborhood of $4-4.5 million.

I agree with Duke above that Tate will be used by Boras as the comp. I'd argue that the price should be something less as Tate was a 2 sport kid that was leaning football without such a strong offer by the Padres.

I very much agree that BAL has some excellent leverage in that Machado will have a hard time topping #3 overall in next year's class. I also firmly believe he has absolutely zero desire to go to school. That doesn't mean Boras isn't willing to send him to a JuCo for a year, but I'd be shocked if he ever made it to FIU, regardless of how negotiations play out.

I disagree he is an "advanced" bat, but that is just personal opinion. I see him as the third best HS bat in the draft, whose value is entirely tied to the chance he sticks at short. But, I know I am in the minority there. Lots of people like him a lot.

[Stotle]

So if he becomes Derek Jeter II, he's not worth it?

He's nothing like Derek Jeter, so do we really need to go down this road, RZ? His build and actions are completely different -- the closest resemblance is arm strength.

[Sports Guy]

He's nothing like Derek Jeter, so do we really need to go down this road, RZ? His build and actions are completely different -- the closest resemblance is arm strength.

His point is he doesn't have to be a #3/#4 hitter to be a valuable piece for us.

[Stotle]

He has to be worth 1.5-2 WAR to be worth it...Not exactly a lot.

Flawed logic. You are comparing him to a FA, not other discounted talent. Yes, he will not be a bust if he is technically worth his contract. But that's not the point. If you are spending $6M on one player in the draft your standard should be higher than "breaking even". I can draft a power relief arm like Chance Ruffin and feel really comfortable I'll make at least three or for times my investment. That doesn't make him a good pick at 1:3. The analysis is contingent on the other talents available. Machado the .300/15 HR bat isn't worth $6M signing bonus.

[mcgraw238]

I very much agree that BAL has some excellent leverage in that Machado will have a hard time topping #3 overall in next year's class. I also firmly believe he has absolutely zero desire to go to school. That doesn't mean Boras isn't willing to send him to a JuCo for a year, but I'd be shocked if he ever made it to FIU, regardless of how negotiations play out.

I disagree he is an "advanced" bat, but that is just personal opinion. I see him as the third best HS bat in the draft, whose value is entirely tied to the chance he sticks at short. But, I know I am in the minority there. Lots of people like him a lot.

I agree he never makes its to FIU. Boras may be willing to send him to Juco but that is a calculated risk. I got a little loose with my words as far as being an "advanced" bat as you are right that much of that value is tied to his position as a SS. I supposed you could say the same about Colon, correct?

[Stotle]

His point is he doesn't have to be a #3/#4 hitter to be a valuable piece for us.

Analysis is easy when you assume success of a player. Calculating in risk while shrinking the ceiling matters. And his point is irrelevant.