Something about Britton that bothers me

[allstar1579]

You're not understanding Frobby's point. He's saying what if the unearned runs are his fault. A 1-base error to lead off an inning that comes around to score really isn't all that unearned.

Drungo lots of times talks about just eliminating errors and unearned runs. If that was the case, Britton might not even be a good prospect, at least from simply looking at the overall stats.

The errors behind him should dissipate substantially when he reaches the majors. That's not what Frobby is speculating on. He's concerned that what if Britton is one of those pitchers that gets really rattled after a mistake and can't buckle down and pick his defense up. Even if the errors are fewer in between, that type of mentality and lack of focus would still be a major red flag.

Obviously this is a question that can't be answered with numbers. Only people who have seen him pitch a lot and seen his reactions when the guys behind him make mistakes and he's got to get out of jams he should have already been out of can answer or even attempt to address this concern.

When you start trying to change the fundamental rules of baseball you are looking too hard.

It is an unearned run because that guy would have been out if the routine play had been made, that is why they started tracking errors in the first place. And yeah, he would still be a prospect if they got rid of errors because the stats would increase across the board and his would still be in a top % of them.

It's very common to see a lot more unearned runs in the minors...Roy Halladay had 50+ unearned runs in 600 IP in the minors...Chris Carpenter had 57 unearned runs in 600IP...Brandon Webb had about 40 in 350IP in the minors. Webb and Halladay being guys who used a ton of sinkers as well.

I think somewhere in the ballpark of 10 unearned runs per 100IP seems about the norm, and Britton is a tad bit over that, BUT he's also got a much worse defense behind him.

We are looking WAY too hard at statistics on this kid, how about we just wait until next year and see what he does in the bigs.

[allstar1579]

ERA is an outdated artifact. It isn't robust enough to really compare pitchers. It levels the field in a crude way, but it doesn't really correct for the effects of bad defense, and it doesn't account for the pitcher who comes unraveled when things start to fall apart around him. (I don't know whether Britton is that kind of pitcher, but Frobby's point is worth considering).

The gross total of runs/9 is probably as accurate as ERA, but FIP is much better than both.

Really? It shows the amount of runs that are their fault given up per 9 innings. Simple maybe, but not outdated. People over and misuse statistics way too much these days. You can find statistics to back up any crazy claim you want to make...don't have to look too hard around here to find that...but really we are overthinking WAY too much on this one.

Really? Maybe he is a headcase and allows too many runs after an error happens? Do you realize how crazy and paranoid we sound (no offense Mackus). We are just so ready for something to go horribly wrong that we are having a witch hunt for things wrong with people. Hopefully one day we have a great system and people stop worrying about it.

[Mackus]

When you start trying to change the fundamental rules of baseball you are looking too hard.

It is an unearned run because that guy would have been out if the routine play had been made, that is why they started tracking errors in the first place. And yeah, he would still be a prospect if they got rid of errors because the stats would increase across the board and his would still be in a top % of them.

It's very common to see a lot more unearned runs in the minors...Roy Halladay had 50+ unearned runs in 600 IP in the minors...Chris Carpenter had 57 unearned runs in 600IP...Brandon Webb had about 40 in 350IP in the minors. Webb and Halladay being guys who used a ton of sinkers as well.

I think somewhere in the ballpark of 10 unearned runs per 100IP seems about the norm, and Britton is a tad bit over that, BUT he's also got a much worse defense behind him.

We are looking WAY too hard at statistics on this kid, how about we just wait until next year and see what he does in the bigs.

You're totally missing Frobby's point, IMO. He's simply raising a question that may worry him, a question that onyl guys that have seen him a lot can address. Are the unearned runs just the result of his high groundball rate and the mediocre minor league defenders and less groomed fields? Or is there something to it that when a guy gets on that should have been out, does Britton tense up, get frustrated, or whatever else and end up struggling to escape jams that he usually would otherwise pitch out of.

We've all seen pitchers who don't react well to adversity, especially when it is another player's errors that caused them. Frobby is just wondering if anything like that may be at play here with Britton.

[AgentOrange]

So now that we have heard multiple times Frobby's point of the thread, maybe we can get some input from people who have watched him over and over again.

We have gotten several reports on Britton in the past. I have not seen one that questioned his mental makeup.

[allstar1579]

You're totally missing Frobby's point, IMO. He's simply raising a question that may worry him, a question that onyl guys that have seen him a lot can address. Are the unearned runs just the result of his high groundball rate and the mediocre minor league defenders and less groomed fields? Or is there something to it that when a guy gets on that should have been out, does Britton tense up, get frustrated, or whatever else and end up struggling to escape jams that he usually would otherwise pitch out of.

We've all seen pitchers who don't react well to adversity, especially when it is another player's errors that caused them. Frobby is just wondering if anything like that may be at play here with Britton.

No I got the point after your last post, I went back and re-read it, I got just what you said here, but that's why I made my last 2 posts, the first one shows that yes, that is very common for high groundball rate pitchers in the minors and will significantly reduce once in the majors, he's right about where other superstars that throw sinkers were in the minors unearned run wise. (I would have gone a step further and checked the rates of passed balls and wild pitches when he pitches like you have to do with a knuckleballer).

The second point, like I said is a witch hunt. We sound crazy worrying about if he gets rattled after an error and gives up more runs. Unless there is 2 outs, any runs besides that one baserunner will go to his earned runs, so then you'd have to take that theory down to: does he get too rattled with 2 outs after an error has allowed a baserunner. That just sounds absolutely insane. As for my opinion on it if I'm going to indulge in the question, I think no, if he did he'd be giving up a lot more runs and getting taken out of games in those situations. I've seen guys that come unraveled after an error and have a hard time getting back in the game (including some recently) and they are not going to put up the numbers that Britton has, he's a fighter.

[Frobby]

Just to give you a feel for this, at Bowie, 14% of all the runs the team has allowed have been unearned (.65 per game). At Norfolk, 12% of the runs allowed have been unearned (.57 per game). But for Britton, 28% of the runs he allowed were unearned (.88 per game). And it's not just this year -- last year, 34% of the runs he allowed were unearned, in 2008 25%, in 2007 it was 21%.

This is my point -- even allowing for poorer defense in the minors generally, Britton gives up an awful lot of unearned runs, even compared to his own teammates.

Now, you have to factor in that Britton is an extreme ground ball pitcher. I would assume that errors on ground balls are far more frequent than errors on fly balls. So, I would expect that Britton has more errors committed behind him than the average pitcher. Still, I find the unearned run discrepancy to be somewhat concerning. No, they aren't all his fault -- but it seems he could be preventing more of them than he is, and one has to wonder why he isn't.

[allstar1579]

Just to give you a feel for this, at Bowie, 14% of all the runs the team has allowed have been unearned. At Norfolk, 12% of the runs allowed have been unearned. But for Britton, 28% of the runs he allowed were unearned. And it's not just this year -- last year, 34% of the runs he allowed were unearned, in 2008 25%, in 2007 it was 21%.

This is my point -- even allowing for poorer defense in the minors generally, Britton gives up an awful lot of unearned runs, even compared to his own teammates.

Now, you have to factor in that Britton is an extreme ground ball pitcher. I would assume that errors on ground balls are far more frequent than errors on fly balls. So, I would expect that Britton has more errors committed behind him than the average pitcher. Still, I find the unearned run discrepancy to be somewhat concerning. No, they aren't all his fault -- but it seems he could be preventing more of them than he is, and one has to wonder why he isn't.

That was the point I was making with Halladay and Webb in the minors, their % of unearned runs was also a big chunk like Britton's was. Gotta run right now so I can't go look them all up again, but I'm sure it's in the 19-23% range for good sinkerball pitchers. Check Bergy's stats and see what his say with some of those same minor leaguers.

I'll get back into this when I get home in a couple hours. Always a pleasure guys.

[Frobby]

The second point, like I said is a witch hunt. We sound crazy worrying about if he gets rattled after an error and gives up more runs. Unless there is 2 outs, any runs besides that one baserunner will go to his earned runs, so then you'd have to take that theory down to: does he get too rattled with 2 outs after an error has allowed a baserunner. That just sounds absolutely insane. As for my opinion on it if I'm going to indulge in the question, I think no, if he did he'd be giving up a lot more runs and getting taken out of games in those situations. I've seen guys that come unraveled after an error and have a hard time getting back in the game (including some recently) and they are not going to put up the numbers that Britton has, he's a fighter.

A witch hunt? All I am doing is raising a concern, not suggesting the guy should be burned at the stake. Everything is a matter of degree -- there's a large grey zone between pitchers who always seem to minimize the mistakes of their teammates and those who fall apart the minute there is a defensive lapse behind them. I don't agree that the situation is limited to what happens with 2 outs. If a team allows an error and the very next batter comes up and hits a homer, does that mean the pitcher was rattled by the error, or not? I note that Britton has allowed only 3 homers at Norfolk, and two of them immediately followed an error. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not.

In his book on Win Shares, Bill James decided that 50% of the "blame" for unearned runs should be placed on the pitcher. That was only intended as a rough estimate, but it stemmed from the reality that many unearned runs could have been prevented by the pitcher.

[Frobby]

Check Bergy's stats and see what his say with some of those same minor leaguers.

Bergy's unearned run rates have been pretty low. He allowed 28 unearned runs in 504 minor league innings, compared to 65 unearned runs in 532 minor league innings for Britton.

Of course, (1) Britton's GB rates are even more extreme than Bergesen's, and (2) Britton has had the misfortune of having Ryan Adams behind him for 2.5 of the last 3 years.

[Sports Guy]

If the runs scores with 2 outs it is. I don't think we have ever heard any problems with his mental approach to pitching.

That doesnt mean it hasn't been overlooked.

I am not sure how much weight you can put into this but its not something you can dismiss either.

[Tony-OH]

I never noticed Britton losing his cool on the mound nor have I heard that is a problem with him. I think it just has to do with the fact that he gives up a lot of cheap hits and gets a lot of groundballs.

[DrungoHazewood]

Extreme ground ball pitchers will have more unearned runs than other types of pitchers. That's just the nature of the beast - infield fielding percentages are much lower than outfield fielding percentages, and unearned runs are based (however loosely and inaccurately) on errors.

Take any two pitchers with a similar sample size, one a high-GB pitcher, the other a high-FB pitcher, and it's very likely the groundball pitcher will have allowed more unearned runs.

I'd imagine the gap is higher in the minors than the majors because of poor field conditions and poor fielders.

[hoosiers]

Extreme ground ball pitchers will have more unearned runs than other types of pitchers. That's just the nature of the beast - infield fielding percentages are much lower than outfield fielding percentages, and unearned runs are based (however loosely and inaccurately) on errors.

Take any two pitchers with a similar sample size, one a high-GB pitcher, the other a high-FB pitcher, and it's very likely the groundball pitcher will have allowed more unearned runs.

I'd imagine the gap is higher in the minors than the majors because of poor field conditions and poor fielders.

Was waiting for an answer like this one.

Still, while GB pitchers have more balls in play going to infielders with lower fielding percentages, I imagine GB pitchers also get more double plays. Not sure if the double players offset the increased errors though.

[Ruzious]

Extreme ground ball pitchers will have more unearned runs than other types of pitchers. That's just the nature of the beast - infield fielding percentages are much lower than outfield fielding percentages, and unearned runs are based (however loosely and inaccurately) on errors.

Take any two pitchers with a similar sample size, one a high-GB pitcher, the other a high-FB pitcher, and it's very likely the groundball pitcher will have allowed more unearned runs.

I'd imagine the gap is higher in the minors than the majors because of poor field conditions and poor fielders.

Maybe he should be rated higher, because of the above and because that's caused him to face more batters than the average minor league prospect (that he wouldn't face in the majors - with better infielders).

[RVAbird]

Maybe he should be rated higher, because of the above and because that's caused him to face more batters than the average minor league prospect (that he wouldn't face in the majors - with better infielders).

Why should that make him rated higher? If his skillset and BIP tendencies lead to more unearned runs, it would be absurd to say it's not his fault. We credit GB pitchers for their positive attributes, there's no reason not to discredit them for their faults just because baseball recognizes some stupid, subjective, moral-imperative-driven rule like errors.

EDIT: To me, this would be like saying: "BABIP is higher on GB, so we should cut GB pitchers some slack." Well, FLD% is lower on GB, because they are harder to field. Should we cut GB pitchers slack because of it?