Jim Callis comments on the O's lack of prospects in the league top 20's

[Tony-OH]

Yeah, scouting is the thing. The Orioles haven't had it or at least enough of it and I don't know how you get it but somebody's going to have to figure that out because the other teams in this division certainly have. Obviously the Orioles will never compete on a regular basis without a farm system at least as good as (and probably better than) the Yankees and Red Sox.

Until we do better in the Dominican and Venezuela, we will continue to have only one source of amateur talent infusion in the Rule 4 draft. The other teams in the Division use the Rule 4 draft while spending heavily in the Dominican, Venezuela, and in places like Columbia and Japan.

Basically the Orioles have put almost all of their "eggs" in one basket and it shows.

[flashjordnk]

Are you saying that their poor records gave the Rays an advantage in drafting those players?

Of all those players, only Brignac can possibly be credited to the Rays finishing so poorly. That's because he was a second-round pick, and possibly wouldn't have been around for them later in that round if the Rays had won more than 70 games that season. All the others were drafted in later rounds where position within the round is of negligible importance. Being lousy definitely helped the Rays grab David Price and Evan Longoria. It had nothing to do with them making Jeremy Hellickson approximately the 100th player chosen in 05, when 29 other teams could have taken him in the 3rd round.

The Rays are stocked today because they had a top scouting system and development system. That, and the willingness to spend money, is what separates the good teams with deep systems from the rest.

Look your disagreement here in my argument is certainly true. And maybe I misspoke about what I was trying to say here.

One, the Rays were really bad for a long time. Then at some point they got smart about the draft and scouting and improved. Let's not act like the Rays have been better good for 3 years. That's it. Just three years. And they are about to turn over a bunch of guys and hope that the guys that come up to replace them are really good. So let's not pretend like they wrote the book on how to be amazing over many years.

My larger point is the Orioles weren't doing what they are doing now in terms of drafts, development and approach as they were in 2004 or 2005. Good systems take time to build and you can't extrapolate this year and our system right this second and judge it on all the past actions that have happened.

As I stated earlier, long term consistency growth and development matter. This team is very different in approach and build than it was in 2004. If in 2 years we still have these same problems then I'll agree we're in trouble. But for the moment I'm not ready to be too critical of our minor leagues. We're getting to the point where we don't need to graduate players every year just to fill in spots on the major league roster. Then we can truly develop our guys, chase after younger projects and be a bit more risky in what we do. Until then...I think you would expect a team like the Orioles who were bare 5 years ago in a great system to simply have completely fixed the problem since.

[Frobby]

Until we do better in the Dominican and Venezuela, we will continue to have only one source of amateur talent infusion in the Rule 4 draft. The other teams in the Division use the Rule 4 draft while spending heavily in the Dominican, Venezuela, and in places like Columbia and Japan.

Basically the Orioles have put almost all of their "eggs" in one basket and it shows.

In the study I did of the top 40 hitters (by OPS) and starting pitchers (by ERA) under 30 this year, 6 of the hitters (15%) and 7 of the pitchers (17.5%) were foreign born. If my memory serves, almost all of them were Dominican or Venezuelan. So that's like saying that for every 5 players we get, our competitors get 6. And frankly, that is the tip of the iceberg:

Major League Baseball's opening-day rosters were comprised of 27.7% foreign-born players, just shy of its all-time record (29.2% in 2005), MLB announced Tuesday.

There were 231 foreign players on opening-day rosters, including a record number of Venezuelans (58). The New York Mets lead the major leaguers with 18 foreign-born players, the most in history, MLB said, and have players from seven different countries and territories.

The Dominican Republic has the most major league players born outside the United States with 86, followed by Venezuela, Puerto Rico (21), Japan (14), Canada (13) and Mexico (12).

The percentage of foreign players could see another significant spike in coming years. MLB reports that 48% of current minor-league players were born outside the USA. That's 3,370 of 7,026 players under contract.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2010/04/major-leagues-consist-of-27-foreign-born-players/1

[LookinUp]

Probably a bigger problem is that we're not seeing our overslot guys do much.

This will be very interesting to watch, over time.

Jordan has been notable for his overslotting in the last couple years, and in 2009 in particular.

If it works, our system could explode over the next 2-3 years. If not, the dearth of talent we have now could prove to be more than a one-year blip.

[Whammer]

Hobgood didn't make the Top 20?? I'm outraged! Afterall, how many 300 lb minor leaguers do you know who can throw consistently in the upper-80's?

Nice job Jordan.

[Frobby]

Hobgood didn't make the Top 20?? I'm outraged! Afterall, how many 300 lb minor leaguers do you know who can throw consistently in the upper-80's?

Nice job Jordan.

I'm giving Hobgood another year before I get too worked up about him being a failed pick. It wasn't a good year, but it wasn't so awful that you can write the guy off, either.

[mikezpen]

Hobgood didn't make the Top 20?? I'm outraged! Afterall, how many 300 lb minor leaguers do you know who can throw consistently in the upper-80's?

That's not nice.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

About Hobgood, any word where he is going to start this year. Are we going to hold him back in Delmarva or promote him to Frederick?

[Frobby]

More from Callis:

On Mahoney:

"A lot of times the teams' minor league player of the year is the guy that performed the best and not the best prospect. He is not a blue-chip, cornerstone type of prospect. He is a 23-year-old guy that spent half the season at High A and he got to Double-A and performed well.

"He had a nice year, but I don't think scouts are projecting him as a .300 hitter with plus power, like he did this year. He hit 18 home runs, which is a nice year, but you don't see him as guy that will hit 25 in the Majors. He is not a top prospect."

On Machado:

"To call him the next A-Rod is ridiculous, but I do think Manny is going to be a special player. A guy who is an All-Star year in and year out.

* * *

"I think he is going to be a .300, 15 to 20 homer shortstop who plays a very solid defensive shortstop. Not only is he the best prospect in their organization, but he compares favorably with any shortstop prospect in the entire minor leagues. So, he's one of the best prospects in the whole minor leagues."

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2010/10/jim-callis-on-machado-mahoney-and-more.html

[bird watcher]

I agree...I have been saying this...Our system isn't really that good right now and, outside of Britton, we don't have anyone who is likely to be any kind of a real help anytime soon..and no, Angle giving us a 600 OPS and playing good defense isn't help.

I am very concerned about our lack of depth in the upper minors. This is a big reason why I think we should be looking to deal Guthrie and/or Scott for a good young player or 2 that are either ML ready or close to ML ready.

Holding onto those guys for the purpose of having(potentially) a few win better season in 2011 is short sighted IMO.

I think this statement is dependent on what else we do in the offseason. If they are going to go with stop gaps and not sign guys like Werth or Beltre or Cliff Lee then I agree wholeheartedly in your approach.

[Camden_yardbird]

Definitely a Stockstill problem and not a Jordan problem. I think we can identify and draft talent, but when it comes to developing those raw skills into polished major league prospects, well, the Orioles maybe the worst in the Majors. And I don't think that is hyperbole.

[bird watcher]

Definitely a Stockstill problem and not a Jordan problem. I think we can identify and draft talent, but when it comes to developing those raw skills into polished major league prospects, well, the Orioles maybe the worst in the Majors. And I don't think that is hyperbole.

It doesn't seem easy to point the finger at one versus the other. How do we know which is the problem?

[wildcard]

More from Callis:

On Mahoney:

On Machado:

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2010/10/jim-callis-on-machado-mahoney-and-more.html

I lost some respect for Callis here. Even if he is right there is not reason to diss Mahoney like this. Sometime you just shut up and let things play out. The kid deserves to try to earn his way to the majors without some one like Callis labeling him.

I hope Mahoney has a great career and shoves it......well proves Callis wrong.

[square634]

I lost some respect for Callis here. Even if he is right there is not reason to diss Mahoney like this. Sometime you just shut up and let things play out. The kid deserves to try to earn his way to the majors without some one like Callis labeling him.

I hope Mahoney has a great career and shoves it......well proves Callis wrong.

Why is it wrong for a journalist who writes about minor leaguers to share his opinion, especially when it wasn't exactly scathing? How is what Callis said different than what might be written about Mahoney or other players in the Hangout O's prospect list?

[wildcard]

Why is it wrong for a journalist who writes about minor leaguers to share his opinion, especially when it wasn't exactly scathing? How is what Callis said different than what might be written about Mahoney or other players in the Hangout O's prospect list?

What's right about it. A 23 year old kid has a very good year, wins the O's minor league player of the year award. And what does Callis do? Disses him. Why? Don't put him of your list, fine. But he doesn't have to go out of your way to say bad things about him.

There are plenty of prospects to talk about that Callis thinks are great. So do that and don't diss a guy who really does not deserve to be dissed.