Matt Hobgood Shut Down With Shoulder Injury

[Enjoy Terror]

Had completely forgotten about Rowell. I think it's time for Jordan to go.

If you had forgotten about Rowell then you probably shouldn't be in charge of making those kinds of decisions.

Keep in mind that Jordan had the common sense to pass on Smoak to take Matusz, and people gloss over that fact when looking for excuses to criticize Jordan.

Rowell was picked in a spot that was where he should have been picked. High upside power hitting kid. Lots of teams passed on Lincecum. There's nothing wrong with how Jordan runs his drafts. There may be issues on the development front, the conditioning programs the Orioles run, or the way the front office chooses to promote internally or spend money.

The MLB draft is a complete crap shoot; however the likelihood that a player will succeed in the majors increases the higher he's likely to go in the draft. The only issue I have with the Hobgood pick is that it was a complete reach, and they could probably be developing a better player at the moment.

[LookinUp]

Maybe its me, but an injured shoulder sounds like a lot better of an explanation for the dramatic velocity loss than "being out of shape". Lets hope for the best, but this is beginning to sounds pretty scary....

This, plus...

When you're out of shape, it's funny how you get "snakebit" with more frequency than guys who keep themselves in shape. Overweight: Check; Out of shape: Check; Injured: Check.

Pretty much sums it up for me.

The last thing either Matt Hobgood or the O's need to be doing right now is letting the pressure of his draft status rush his rehab or development timeline.

Hopefully they'll be smart enough to continue his re-conditioning while rehabbing the shoulder, even if it takes until June or July for him to return. It's more important for him to get into physical shape (body and shoulder) than it is for him to play this year at all, IMO.

[LookinUp]

Had completely forgotten about Rowell. I think it's time for Jordan to go.

With respect, you have no idea what kind of handcuffs are on Joe Jordan (and neither do I). We don't know if his scouting staff is either 1) plentiful (though indications are that it isn't), 2) relatively well paid or 3) up to par relative to the rest of the league. We also don't know what his draft budget is or what kind of direction he takes from the front office about types of players to target.

All we know is that everything under Angelos stinks. That doesn't mean everyone under Angelos stinks though.

[Sanfran327]

Lincecum was the 10th pick of the 2006 draft. In career value, three of the first nine picks currently have negative WAR, and Rowell and the Pirates' Brad Lincoln are at 0.0. The first two picks in the draft, Hochevar and Reynolds have combined for 73 major league games and an ERA somewhere north of 6.00.

Bill Rowell is actually the 6th-most valuable player in the first 10 picks of 2006, by virtue of him being bad enough to not come to the majors and play awfully.

You can always play what if games with almost every team in every draft.

No doubt. In that draft, we decided to take a high-ceiling hitter over a pitcher, and it bit us in the butt. Exact opposite happens with Hobgood. Many people make the argument that we should have taken Smoak instead of Matusz (still!). It's mostly a crapshoot.

[Stotle]

No doubt. In that draft, we decided to take a high-ceiling hitter over a pitcher, and it bit us in the butt. Exact opposite happens with Hobgood. Many people make the argument that we should have taken Smoak instead of Matusz (still!). It's mostly a crapshoot.

There is a fair amount of luck that goes into hitting on any draft prospect, but it isn't really a "crapshoot" when you are talking about 1st rounders that struggle right off the bat. It happens, but I wouldn't say it is normal.

Moreover, if luck were the overriding factor (not that you are saying it is), I think we'd see less disparity between the organizations and their MiL systems. Good teams are able to continually bring in talent -- even if the "hit rate" is generally poor across everyone's board.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

Rowell was picked in a spot that was where he should have been picked. High upside power hitting kid. Lots of teams passed on Lincecum. There's nothing wrong with how Jordan runs his drafts. There may be issues on the development front, the conditioning programs the Orioles run, or the way the front office chooses to promote internally or spend money.

I'm properly in the minority here but If I had the same choice today and I did not know the outcome I would still pick the potential power hitting 3B over the 5'10 pitcher with the crazy delivery. Yeah Lincecum is the much better player today but they were definately concerns about how well he would hold up back when he was drafted. If you want superstar players you have to take a risk sometimes, and with risk your going to have to accept falling on your face every now and then.

[Sports Guy]

But that's true of any young pitcher. Would you drop every pitcher down X spots because of injury concerns? I guess there's some legitimacy to that line of thought.

I also suppose the O's should get some credit for sticking to their guns and drafting the guy they wanted when almost nobody else thought it was the right pick. Especially when the guy had all kinds of conditioning and weight red flags.

Or you could just call them cheap, and Occam's Razor says that's probably closer to the truth.

Yes I would..if they were a very high pick. The Orioles need to hit on those picks.

Now, if you have a college arm like Matusz, I worry about injury but don't really drop him down too much. But a HS pitcher? Absolutely. As a rule, I wouldn't draft a HS pitcher in the top 5 or so picks anyway, unless they are one of these incredible HS pitchers like Taillon was or a guy like Beckett and one of the big reasons is the injury factor.

[RandyM]

There is a fair amount of luck that goes into hitting on any draft prospect, but it isn't really a "crapshoot" when you are talking about 1st rounders that struggle right off the bat. It happens, but I wouldn't say it is normal.

Moreover, if luck were the overriding factor (not that you are saying it is), I think we'd see less disparity between the organizations and their MiL systems. Good teams are able to continually bring in talent -- even if the "hit rate" is generally poor across everyone's board.

I am not going to fault Jordan for the Rowell pick. 9 other teams passed on Timmy too. The Matusz vs. Smoak was a flip of a coin, but I will give him credit for picking the right guy "at this point in time".

I will fault Jordan for picking Hobgood though. If you are going to "overdraft" someone with such a high pick, you better be right. Plus, you will give the impression that it is slot pick no matter how you try to spin it with "he has high marks for makeup".

I will fault Jordan "at this point in time" for drafting so many raw positional players so early. It is a pretty obvious thing that this organization has a lot of trouble developing these type of players for some odd reason for the past 15+ years. Shouldn't we go with more of a polished type player than the athlete?

Is he better than his predecessors? Sure, but again when you only had a handful of drafted and developed talent in the last decades, not a tough mark to beat.

I like the creativeness of the group to go after injured talent that you can sign and draft late or the neglected JUCO's. Just waiting for one of those guys to stick. Seems like the only guys that have worked out are Arrieta and Berry to a small degree. I understand it will take time, but time is running out.

[Sanfran327]

There is a fair amount of luck that goes into hitting on any draft prospect, but it isn't really a "crapshoot" when you are talking about 1st rounders that struggle right off the bat. It happens, but I wouldn't say it is normal.

Moreover, if luck were the overriding factor (not that you are saying it is), I think we'd see less disparity between the organizations and their MiL systems. Good teams are able to continually bring in talent -- even if the "hit rate" is generally poor across everyone's board.

I think some organizations try too hard to find the next Pujols, Tom Brady, or Scottie Pippen (RE: enormous talents that were under-the-radar picks). Hobgood I think is a prime example of this. We need to be making more Russell Maryland picks and fewer Alex Smith picks if we are going to grow our organization. The Twins, Red Sox, Royals, A's, and Rays of the world do a much better job at evaluating talent and developing talent than most teams.

[Birds08]

I'm sorry, but I don't get your point here. You seem to be saying that the Orioles are getting "what they deserve" because someone else who MIGHT have had more talent was less likely to be injured. Or said another way, the Orioles ended up with an injured player BECAUSE they picked a player with less talent than was available. Huh?

My point didn't really have anything to do with the injury. Basically just saying that so far it looks like the Orioles are going to get what they deserve with this pick (based on his performance thus far), because there were a lot of guys that clearly should've been taken ahead of him.

[Stotle]

I am not going to fault Jordan for the Rowell pick. 9 other teams passed on Timmy too. The Matusz vs. Smoak was a flip of a coin, but I will give him credit for picking the right guy "at this point in time".

I will fault Jordan for picking Hobgood though. If you are going to "overdraft" someone with such a high pick, you better be right. Plus, you will give the impression that it is slot pick no matter how you try to spin it with "he has high marks for makeup".

I will fault Jordan "at this point in time" for drafting so many raw positional players so early. It is a pretty obvious thing that this organization has a lot of trouble developing these type of players for some odd reason for the past 15+ years. Shouldn't we go with more of a polished type player than the athlete?

Is he better than his predecessors? Sure, but again when you only had a handful of drafted and developed talent in the last decades, not a tough mark to beat.

I like the creativeness of the group to go after injured talent that you can sign and draft late or the neglected JUCO's. Just waiting for one of those guys to stick. Seems like the only guys that have worked out are Arrieta and Berry to a small degree. I understand it will take time, but time is running out.

I think some organizations try too hard to find the next Pujols, Tom Brady, or Scottie Pippen (RE: enormous talents that were under-the-radar picks). Hobgood I think is a prime example of this. We need to be making more Russell Maryland picks and fewer Alex Smith picks if we are going to grow our organization. The Twins, Red Sox, Royals, A's, and Rays of the world do a much better job at evaluating talent and developing talent than most teams.

I have expressed this before, but I am not a fan of the approach Jordan has taken in the draft these past two years. From the independent research/work I've done and from the info I have been made privy to since joining up with a ML scouting department I don't think BAL is likely to hit with as much frequency as some other teams that value certain characteristics/cross-sections not general encapsulated in BAL's strategy.

[Can_of_corn]

Update from Melewski

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2010/12/matt-hobgood-talks-about-his-shoulder-injury.html

From Matt

"In my last high school playoff game I was up to 96 or 97 and felt fine, no problems at all. That was, I think, the last day of that May (in 2009). Took off four weeks and reported to Bluefield June 28th and sometime in July it got a little sore. I just figured it was because I hadn't thrown in a month.

"The last year and a half, two years, it hasn't been any particular pitch. It just started acting up on me more this year, but, I couldn't tell you when or where or how it happened."

[Tank]

Wish he would've spoke up a little sooner..

[QBsILLEST1]

Update from Melewski

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2010/12/matt-hobgood-talks-about-his-shoulder-injury.html

From Matt

Yeah, uhhh this sounds bad. "Strained rotator cuffs" don't continue to be bothersome after a year and a half if given proper rest. If it is recurring I would expect surgery pretty soon. I mean if time doesn't heal it, then what else are we waiting for?

[Crazysilver03]

Yeah, uhhh this sounds bad. "Strained rotator cuffs" don't continue to be bothersome after a year and a half if given proper rest. If it is reoccuring I would expect surgery pretty soon. I mean if time doesn't heal it, then what else are we waiting for?

On the bright-side, it would be "great" if his lackluster Bluefield and Delmarva campaigns were caused by injury.