Should Rowell Go To Frederick Next April?

[Frobby]

From the long Wieters thread:

I wouldn't say Rowell did well at Delmarva. He didn't do badly, but he wasn't above average or anything, either. He's still very, very young. Starting him at Delmarva is a low risk way of getting him back to the .850-.950 OPS that he put up in Rookie ball and Aberdeen, rather than the .750 or so he put up at Delmarva last year. I think he'll move up to Frederick quickly, but I think starting him at Delmarva is the right move, and the way the O's will go with him as well.

Wonder who agrees/disagrees here. There wasn't a lot of difference between the numbers put up by Snyder and Rowell:

Snyder .283/.354/.422

Rowell .273/.335/.426

I'm inclined to promote Rowell to Frederick. FYI, Delmarva had a team OPS of .710 and the league had a median OPS around .740. In that context, Rowell's .761 looks pretty good.

[AgentOrange]

Thats a great question. I have no idea really. I think he could be young enough to repeat Delmarva and not really lose his prospect status. I also think it would good for him to do well in a league for confidence. Yet, I also think it wouldn't hurt him to be in Frederick.

I think the league average shows that he was slightly above average last year and he was young for the league. Very promising. I think he is going to blow up next year wherever he plays. I think he is going to fill out this offseason and become a beast.

[Fairfax Bird]

I would prefer to move Rowell up. OPSs usually climb at Frederick and I think it is important that they push him a bit. I want to see him for a full year with health.

[clapdiddy]

I'm inclined to move Rowell and Snyder to Frederick. If they can't hack it, its no big deal to move them back to Delmarva.

[JohnD]

What reason is there to hold him back? This question is like asking me if you should close the door when it's cold outside.

[hoosiers]

This is a non-issue, IMO. There is no doubt that Rowell starts at Frederick. Rookie ball to full season ball is perhaps the biggest jump in baseball, next to the majors itself. Rowell more than held his own at age 18. Delmarva to Frederick isn't nearly the same jump, and I will be surprised if Rowell doesn't put together a better season at Frederick than he did at Delmarva.

What he said plus the fact Rowell was dealing with injuries.

[RayFink1e]

Start him in Delmarva. If he is good enough he will show it quickly

[TakebackOPACY]

What reason is there to hold him back? This question is like asking me if you should close the door when it's cold outside.

While I don't think they'll go wrong either way, I'll offer two good reasons:

1. 104 k's:31 bb's. Let him practice in Delmarva while he's still challenged there.

2. He should play 3B everyday, which means he should be one level behind Snyder (since Snyder will at least play 3B part-time). So, if Snyder starts in Frederick, Rowell will be in Delmarva.

[JohnD]

They do have a DH in Frederick. And don't be surprised to see Snyder play some LF either. I don't think that situation is settled at all. But the Orioles are (well at least those that I talked to) extremely, extremely happy with the year that Rowell had.

[DrShorebird]

The dynamic duo will start at Frederick and should start at Frederick and each will have a very good year.

[Jammer7]

What's the rush? Look at his splits by month, he remained essentially the same throughout the season in all major categories. He did not show any appreciable progress toward the end of the season to show that he should be promoted to Frederick. I did not get a chance to make it up there to see him this season, but unless the coaching staff is confident he has made the adjustments necessary to jump then he should stay in Delmarva until he shows he can make the jump. Statistically speaking, he has not proven he should move up. look at the link below for Rowell's stats. Rush him and you could wreck his confidence for good.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Billy%20Rowell&pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=475728

Plus, I'd like to see what Snyder could do at 3B in Frederick. He did show solid progress in Delmarva last year. I couldn't locate Snyder's splits by month, but he definitely made solid adjustments as the season progressed.

If Rowell dominates in the first half at Delmarva, then move him up. What is lost by having him get his feet under him and boosting his confidence and then moving him up? If he comes in and rocks everybody in spring training then forget what I just wrote, but otherwise...what's the rush?

Besides, if Tripp dominated and did not get moved up to Frederick mid-season, what makes you think Stocky will push Rowell?

[Tony-OH]

Lots of good comments here that show why and why not Rowell should be in Frederick next year. My gut says he could probably use another half a season at Delmavra, but my heart says challenge him at Frederick. The only concern I have is that Rowell by all reports is extremely confident, so if he struggles at Frederick would that hurt his confidence for the future?

I'm worried over his K:BB ratio last year as well as his terrible mark against lefties. There's also nothing wrong with him spending half a season at Delmarva at the age of 19. It's not like the O's would be putting him behind by giving him the rest of his at bats at Delmarva (remember he lost at bats with the oblique injury).

Would it hurt for him to get hot at Delmarva then move to Frederick? With Snyder needing at bats at Frederick and a place to play (I'd split his time between 3B and LF), I'm not sure it's such a bad ida to keep Rowell at Delmarva to start the year.

Travis Hafner and Magglio Ordonez are two players that come to mind that repeated the Sally League for much better results and then propelled their careers to the majors. Although Rowell did not have a bad year at Delmarva next year, he didn't really prove he needed to be promoted either. I'm not sure why he's not playing Winter ball this year so without the extra at bats, going back to Delmarva may not be the worse idea.

[blazer]

I would be shocked to see Rowell start the season in Delmarva. You just don't hold back a top prospect at the same level unless he had a terrible season (ie. Brandon Erbe). If he is expected to become an All-star in the Major Leagues he needs to be challenged and continue moving up the ladder. Frankly, I expect to see him progress through A+, AA and AAA over the next two seasons and be in the majors in 2010. He certainly won't be sitting on the couch eating potato chips all off-season; he will be working on improving his game and thus be a better player starting next season. I think there is a better chance he gets promoted to AA sometime next season than starting the year in Delmarva.

[Jammer7]

Rowell is a top prospect for what he is projected to be, not for what he is or what he has produced thus far. He's not a polished hitter at this point. Like it or not, he just doesn't have the same level of development as many other top prospects in other organizations.

Growing up in NJ is not the same as playing year round in Georgia, Florida, Texas, California and Arizona. He does not have the same experience facing solid pitching as others drafted highly from those fair weather areas. For instance, I live in Florida and my 8 year old plays ball for all but about two months a year. He's been doing that for a few years now. That is a common thing here and many other states, not an exception to the rule. The competition is tremendous even at the little league level. We have a bunch of 8 year olds playing travel ball tournaments in AAU and USSSA. That is not to say that there isn't some great players in NJ, because obviously there is. There just isn't the depth of quality pitching up north that there is in the warmer states. That is why Florida, Texas, California and such have around 100 players drafted each year.

Just my humble opinion, but his draft or prospect status should not dictate where he starts what essentially will be not quite his second year of professional baseball. He has played a quarter of a season in Rookie ball and a half season in low A ball. He is a very raw hitter right now. He needs a lot of reps at 3B as well.

The thing about a kid with a lot of confidence is that it can be a fragile thing. The confidence of a kid like that is a big part of what makes them so good. If you crush that, you may not get it back. He'll struggle at times no matter what, and that is a good thing. You have to challenge him, but you have to give him a challenge that he can reasonably meet. That is what shows him he needs to adjust his approach or mechanics. He's also getting used to playing baseball everyday as a job. He will need a little more time than say a Markakis because he is behind in the process compared to where Nick was at the same stage.

He'll be 19 years old for the entire minor league season next year. Assuming he has a very good first half, he goes to Frederick and hopefully continues his success in high A. He spends 2009 in Bowie and 2010 in Norfolk. That would mean he will be 22 years old in 2011, and if all goes well, he gets his first taste of Baltimore sometime that year. Who knows, maybe he struggles some in Bowie or Norfolk and it takes another year. So, he'd be 23 years old in 2012. What is wrong with that? How old do you think Wieters will be when he comes up to Baltimore to stay? And he's supposed to be the most advanced bat in last year's draft. A very different player, but an interesting contrast.

If he starts in Frederick in '08, I'd be a little surprised, but not shocked. The coaches have a feel for the kids' development that I will never have. Stocky is going to have an overhauled development system with many new coaches and instructors. They will have many tough choices, none tougher than what to do with Rowell. Ultimately, I would imagine his assignment will have a lot to do with how he looks in the spring.

[mikezpen]

Jammer, I don't know that there w/b that many new coaches in the minors. They shipped out a pitching coordinator, Etchebarren, some other coach I believe and and a strength coach but not much else. The vast majority of the chage is at the Major League level.Frankly, I'd like to see some more people unloaded down there.

Normally, I'm very conservative on promoting minor leaguers. For instance, I don't think they s/send Wieters to Bowie for one thing.He needs to establish himself against pitching at the A level for more than a few games out in Hawaii.

But my gut tells me that Rowell can move up to Frederick. I guess the best thing to do is keep an open mind when practice starts and make a decision then.