Should Rowell Go To Frederick Next April?

[Greg Pappas]

Rowell is a top prospect for what he is projected to be, not for what he is or what he has produced thus far. He's not a polished hitter at this point. Like it or not, he just doesn't have the same level of development as many other top prospects in other organizations.

Growing up in NJ is not the same as playing year round in Georgia, Florida, Texas, California and Arizona. He does not have the same experience facing solid pitching as others drafted highly from those fair weather areas. For instance, I live in Florida and my 8 year old plays ball for all but about two months a year. He's been doing that for a few years now. That is a common thing here and many other states, not an exception to the rule. The competition is tremendous even at the little league level. We have a bunch of 8 year olds playing travel ball tournaments in AAU and USSSA. That is not to say that there isn't some great players in NJ, because obviously there is. There just isn't the depth of quality pitching up north that there is in the warmer states. That is why Florida, Texas, California and such have around 100 players drafted each year.

Just my humble opinion, but his draft or prospect status should not dictate where he starts what essentially will be not quite his second year of professional baseball. He has played a quarter of a season in Rookie ball and a half season in low A ball. He is a very raw hitter right now. He needs a lot of reps at 3B as well.

The thing about a kid with a lot of confidence is that it can be a fragile thing. The confidence of a kid like that is a big part of what makes them so good. If you crush that, you may not get it back. He'll struggle at times no matter what, and that is a good thing. You have to challenge him, but you have to give him a challenge that he can reasonably meet. That is what shows him he needs to adjust his approach or mechanics. He's also getting used to playing baseball everyday as a job. He will need a little more time than say a Markakis because he is behind in the process compared to where Nick was at the same stage.

He'll be 19 years old for the entire minor league season next year. Assuming he has a very good first half, he goes to Frederick and hopefully continues his success in high A. He spends 2009 in Bowie and 2010 in Norfolk. That would mean he will be 22 years old in 2011, and if all goes well, he gets his first taste of Baltimore sometime that year. Who knows, maybe he struggles some in Bowie or Norfolk and it takes another year. So, he'd be 23 years old in 2012. What is wrong with that? How old do you think Wieters will be when he comes up to Baltimore to stay? And he's supposed to be the most advanced bat in last year's draft. A very different player, but an interesting contrast.

If he starts in Frederick in '08, I'd be a little surprised, but not shocked. The coaches have a feel for the kids' development that I will never have. Stocky is going to have an overhauled development system with many new coaches and instructors. They will have many tough choices, none tougher than what to do with Rowell. Ultimately, I would imagine his assignment will have a lot to do with how he looks in the spring.

Outstanding post and one in which you touched upon many of the same points that I would've posted. Good job.

[Frobby]

Lots of good comments here that show why and why not Rowell should be in Frederick next year. My gut says he could probably use another half a season at Delmavra, but my heart says challenge him at Frederick. The only concern I have is that Rowell by all reports is extremely confident, so if he struggles at Frederick would that hurt his confidence for the future?

I'm worried over his K:BB ratio last year as well as his terrible mark against lefties. There's also nothing wrong with him spending half a season at Delmarva at the age of 19. It's not like the O's would be putting him behind by giving him the rest of his at bats at Delmarva (remember he lost at bats with the oblique injury).

It's a close call, which is why I asked the question. I agree that the K/BB ratio (particularly the K's) and his struggles vs. LHP are cause for concern. At the same time, his overall numbers were pretty solid, and I don't think the jump to Frederick is that big a jump.

[Flosman]

I think some on here may be failing to look at the confidence subject properly in Rowell's case. Rowell is known to be supremely confident, almost cocky, by almost all reports. This kid believes he is going to be a HOFer and has for quite a while. Failing to advance might actually be a greater blow to his self image than struggling a little. He had a decent year which I am sure in his mind was no great year only because of the injury he struggled with for much of the season. I think we has fans will have to rely on Jordan and the rest of the development guys to make the right decision on Rowell. I think he did enough that either way would be fine with me. But at the end of the day I really doubt he is going to crumble mentally if he is not tearing the cover off the ball in Fredrick in the first half of next season and I know that if he tears up the Sally league in the first half he is not going to be saying oh boy I might be good after all. He already thinks he is a great player.

[Moose Milligan]

Perhaps a blow to his self confidence could be a good thing.

If he can bounce back and shake it off, it'll show what he's made out of.

He's going to have a bunch of tests in the majors, therefore I don't think the minors should be set up to be a cakewalk for him. How's he going to handle tearing through the minors, then going on an 0-21 streak in the bigs and making a couple errors?

I guess I'm saying he should start in Frederick...not sink or swim per se, but just give him a good dose (not a lethal dose) of adversity, see how he handles it.

[Frobby]

By the way, can anyone think of a really good hitting prospect we had who did solidly at Delmarva but really struggled at Frederick? I really can't think of one.

[Jammer7]

Jammer, I don't know that there w/b that many new coaches in the minors. They shipped out a pitching coordinator, Etchebarren, some other coach I believe and and a strength coach but not much else. The vast majority of the chage is at the Major League level.Frankly, I'd like to see some more people unloaded down there.

Bien Figueroa (manager at AA Bowie), Andy Etchebarren (minor league catching instructor and A(SS) Aberdeen manager), Doc Watson (minor league pitching coordinator), and Tom Lawless (roving IF and baserunning coach) are not just minor changes. These are very important instructors to replace, especially when it comes to instructional league and spring training. I am curious who will fill their shoes.

Also, you cannot discount how much the major league changes will affect the minor league system. Trembley has said he will do what he can to make sure that players are ready when they come up. Macphail has said the same. There will be a lot of changes...and there needed to be. See the following quote from Moe Hill in Roch's blog on 10/02/07.

Mo Hill, a coach at Double-A Bowie who joined the Orioles' staff last month, believes the affiliates are passing along the same instruction at each level that's found at the major league level.

"It all starts in spring training, the fundamental part of it, making sure we're all on the same page with the major leagues, just in case there's a player to be moved up. That way he'll know exactly what's going on when he gets here," Hill said.

"You have a lot of the minor league staff over at major league camp, so they can bring it from the major league club down to the minor league club. That's how we try to get on the same page, as far as defensive work, offensive work, outfield play, infield, things like that. When you're on the same page that way, you don't miss a beat. Hopefully you don't, anyway."

There will be a lot of attention paid to development in this new regime like never before, atleast in the last 25 years. Kranitz should definitely have some say in how pitching is developed in the minors.

[Jammer7]

I think some on here may be failing to look at the confidence subject properly in Rowell's case. Rowell is known to be supremely confident, almost cocky, by almost all reports. This kid believes he is going to be a HOFer and has for quite a while. Failing to advance might actually be a greater blow to his self image than struggling a little. He had a decent year which I am sure in his mind was no great year only because of the injury he struggled with for much of the season. I think we has fans will have to rely on Jordan and the rest of the development guys to make the right decision on Rowell. I think he did enough that either way would be fine with me. But at the end of the day I really doubt he is going to crumble mentally if he is not tearing the cover off the ball in Fredrick in the first half of next season and I know that if he tears up the Sally league in the first half he is not going to be saying oh boy I might be good after all. He already thinks he is a great player.

I respect your opinion...maybe you're right, but if failing to advance is a blow to his ego moreso than his meager production...then maybe he needs to fail to advance. He didn't struggle a little, he struggled a lot compared to his expectations of himself. Even one who is supremely confident will figure out that his numbers aren't all that great. His teammates will get tired of the cocky attitude if the production doesn't come. Cocky only plays for so long when you're not performing well. He may think he's a great player, but he hasn't proven it to anyone yet.

[Flosman]

I respect your opinion...maybe you're right, but if failing to advance is a blow to his ego moreso than his meager production...then maybe he needs to fail to advance. He didn't struggle a little, he struggled a lot compared to his expectations of himself. Even one who is supremely confident will figure out that his numbers aren't all that great. His teammates will get tired of the cocky attitude if the production doesn't come. Cocky only plays for so long when you're not performing well. He may think he's a great player, but he hasn't proven it to anyone yet.

I think he did worse than we hoped for and some of that probably was due to the injury. But I do not think it would be crazy to say he is one of the top 20 or so under 19 YO players in the world and that would qualify has a great player. Wouldn't you think?

[HoodGuy007]

I think he did worse than we hoped for and some of that probably was due to the injury. But I do not think it would be crazy to say he is one of the top 20 or so under 19 YO players in the world and that would qualify has a great player. Wouldn't you think?

If by top 20, you mean top 10, then you would be 100% correct. The other thing we have to keep in mind is that IMO he struggled with his oblique for a good chunk of the season. With a full off season to work, hopefully he can find his Fiorentino... a guy who pushes him because he wants to be better than Rowell, but doesn't have the same skill set as Rowell. Nick still works out with Jeff on a regular basis and they both still push each other, and it gives them a really good friend in te system, someone they can talk to about the good, the bad, and the ugly. As far as pushing him, yes, we could keep him at Delmarva until he dominates, but why? He did well, not great, but more than acceptable. This is not rushing him, and IMO the step from Delmarva to Frederick is not that great (Frederick to Bowie is much, much, much harder).

[Big Mac]

The dynamic duo will start at Frederick and should start at Frederick and each will have a very good year.

It's gonna be an exciting Frederick team this year, I'll be up there a lot.

[Jammer7]

I think he did worse than we hoped for and some of that probably was due to the injury. But I do not think it would be crazy to say he is one of the top 20 or so under 19 YO players in the world and that would qualify has a great player. Wouldn't you think?

No, not really. That qualifies him as an outstanding prospect. I'm glad he's in our system. Potential, projection and tools do not define a great player. That's all just speculation as to what he may become. Production is what makes a player great. He's certainly a fine prospect, one of the best young (under 20) power-hitting prospects in the game.

When he shows the aptitude to make adjustments and advance his game, then we'll talk about greatness. There's a few teams where he may not even break their top 7-8 prospects right now. He's in our top 3 or so because we don't have much else. I believe in the kid, he just needs time and patience. I'm not worried about his so-so year with the injury and all. I think we'll see quickly next year that there is a large gap between Wieters and Rowell. And until Wieters puts some meat on the table, I'm not ready to call him a great player either.

[DrungoHazewood]

Perhaps a blow to his self confidence could be a good thing.

If he can bounce back and shake it off, it'll show what he's made out of.

He's going to have a bunch of tests in the majors, therefore I don't think the minors should be set up to be a cakewalk for him. How's he going to handle tearing through the minors, then going on an 0-21 streak in the bigs and making a couple errors?

I guess I'm saying he should start in Frederick...not sink or swim per se, but just give him a good dose (not a lethal dose) of adversity, see how he handles it.

I agree here. I'm not sure when it became necessary to make sure a player dominates a league before he moves up. It certainly wasn't that way throughout history, including for many (probably most) current major leaguers. I'm not sure when ballplayers became so mentally fragile that a couple months of adjusting to high A pitching is a huge risk to a guy's entire career. Probably about the same time folks started saying that every 9th inning 3-run lead was the mental equivalent of the Bataan Death March.

Put the kid in Frederick, let him play. I'm betting that even if he's hitting .197 on May 15th he's not going to be reduced to sobbing incoherently in the dugout.

[TakebackOPACY]

I agree here. I'm not sure when it became necessary to make sure a player dominates a league before he moves up. It certainly wasn't that way throughout history, including for many (probably most) current major leaguers. I'm not sure when ballplayers became so mentally fragile that a couple months of adjusting to high A pitching is a huge risk to a guy's entire career. Probably about the same time folks started saying that every 9th inning 3-run lead was the mental equivalent of the Bataan Death March.

Put the kid in Frederick, let him play. I'm betting that even if he's hitting .197 on May 15th he's not going to be reduced to sobbing incoherently in the dugout.

I don't think we're taking the thread off direction by talking about Snyder at this point. The decisions concerning his and Rowell's assignments go hand in hand. Where does Snyder play? Do they both play in Frederick? Does Snyder leap to Bowie? Am I correct in my instincts that Rowell should be playing 3B just about every day?

Please don't bother blindly responding that they should both be in Frederick without giving your 2 cents concerning where they get their at bats. Thanks.

[mtairydan]

I don't think we're taking the thread off direction by talking about Snyder at this point. The decisions concerning his and Rowell's assignments go hand in hand. Where does Snyder play? Do they both play in Frederick? Does Snyder leap to Bowie? Am I correct in my instincts that Rowell should be playing 3B just about every day?

Please don't bother blindly responding that they should both be in Frederick without giving your 2 cents concerning where they get their at bats. Thanks.

They both can split time between 3B and DH (Snyder also can play 1B or OF) to get their AB's at Frederick which is where I would start both of them at if it was up to me.

[Hank Scorpio]

I don't think we're taking the thread off direction by talking about Snyder at this point. The decisions concerning his and Rowell's assignments go hand in hand. Where does Snyder play? Do they both play in Frederick? Does Snyder leap to Bowie? Am I correct in my instincts that Rowell should be playing 3B just about every day?

Please don't bother blindly responding that they should both be in Frederick without giving your 2 cents concerning where they get their at bats. Thanks.

There are plenty of options here, IMO. Snyder can play 1st, 3rd and DH. I can't imagine there would be a shortage of at bats for either of them in Frederick.