For What It's Worth...

[JTrea81]

Im tired of his act. I thought maybe he would see the green light with Mazzone but if Mazzone cant help him who will?

Keep in mind Mazzone does not work well with young pitchers. Loewen was the exception, not the rule...

Ray Miller was able to reach him and Cabrera improved as a result. If they can't get much for him, I'd keep him around through ST at least and see what Kranitz can do with him...

[thomden]

Yes, but he can be placed on the 60-man once the season starts, which then wouldn't count against the 40-man roster.

Thanks. Your knowledge is invaluable. If we acquired more players via trade than current roster room allows. Can we wait until the start of the season before having to protect them?

[Peace21]

Zito, when he signed, had won 102 major league games. He had pitched 200+ innings for 6 seasons in a row -- something Bedard has yet to do even once. And he was a free agent, with zero risk of suffering an injury before reaching free agency.

IF Bedard has two fully healthy seasons where he pitches as effectively as he did in 2007, THEN he might be in position to earn a Zito-like deal. However, he'll be two years older than Zito was when he signed his deal.

Nobody in their right mind would pay Bedard Zito money right now. And I'm sure Bedard's agents know this.

Bedard can have good seasons, he just milks injuries here and asks to be pulled early so he doesnt have to speak to the press after the game.

[Sports Guy]

I'd guess you'd get offers of the same kind of player. Someone long on potential and short on results.

He was talking Bedard there(assuming you are talking DCab)

[Belkast]

Belkast,

I've been curious about something for quite some time and I'm hoping you can provide insight.

What was the feeling amongst the FO and Trembley when Bedard got hurt and then packed up to go home within 10 days and several weeks before the season ended? Obliques can suck, but that whole situation smelled bad to me. Was the injury that bad? Did he suggest leaving or the Orioles? What did they really think about it?

I was pretty shocked when it happened but I stayed quiet. Players leave the team to rehab at other places for things like surgery, but it is very unusual for a player to leave the team for the remainder of the year with an injury like Bedard's injury.

Thanks in advance!

I can tell you the team has NEVER been thrilled with his toughness!

[Peace21]

I can tell you the team has NEVER been thrilled with his toughness!

Ditto to that.

[weams]

Spoke with my guy and thought I would pass along what I was told. Nothing earth shattering but here it goes.......First the players that we will attempt to get off of next years roster. Gibbons,Payton,Hernandez ,1 of Millar/Huff, Tejada, and Baez.He also said they have some interest in moving Mora and DCab. Mora would be linked to his NTC and what happens with Tejada. He also told me that a offer is being drawn up for Bedard that they think is a fair offer. If Bedard declined which the general feeling is that he will, then Bedard will be put on the table. If this happens they would obviously expect a bidding war. Some good things could come out of this in my opinion. I asked about Roberts and was told they we would rather not move him BUT if we trade some other pieces and we get a good offer for him we would probably take it. He is by NO MEANS OFF LIMITS. I asked about just flat releasing some players ( Gibbons) and was told that was premature but also a possibility. All right fire away!

I am so glad that you are still in the loop.

[Sports Guy]

120 post thread in one hour....Don't any of us have jobs? LOL

[srock]

There is definitely a difference between what his actual value will be over the next 4-6 years and the perceived value he will offer over the next six years unless he tracks perfectly to PECOTA or whatever method the GMs are using to value players. Most GMs look at a historical metric like winshares from previous years, then take the predictions of future performance like PECOTA, and add or subtract to them based on their personal feelings, scouting, marketability, etc.... I would be willing to bet huge amounts of money right now that Bedard's metric (PECOTA) is being bumped up rather substantially by most every GM. He is a guy with great press right now so his perceived value is likely inflated over his real value. Tejada is the exact opposite IMO.

What you're referring to is real/perceived value during a negotiation and I agree with what you're saying on that. The market is what the market is when you're actually purchasing/selling.

This is exactly what I thinking about.

If perceived value is future value, then I see your point.

[66-70-83-??]

I cant really leak that kind of info yet.

But what I can tell you is, Bedard doesnt really like it here in Baltimore. We could all guess that. But the O's are the ones that will have to beg here. If they really want to bring Bedard back they have to build a winner, and offer him something to what Zito got or even more. Bedard if and when he makes it to FA, he will become the highest paid starter in the league.

Bedard, the highest paid starter in the league ?

Would you like to put a wager on that ?

Even if he were a FA now- it wouldn't happen. Look at his track record.

The only way I would give him anything close to what Zito got was in the form of performance/IP incentives.

Beg him ? LOL. Like I said earlier, if he wants to forgo financial security now with the chance at playing for the Blue Jays (or whoever) in two years- he is making a risky roll of the dice.

But, if I were the GM- I would trade him regardless of whether or not he would re-sign here. I am not bullish on Bedard. I believe his value will never be higher and it is time to cash him in for two or three young players.

[davearm]

FWIW, here's what Carlos Zambrano got:

$5M signing bonus

08:$15M, 09:$17.75M, 10:$17.875M, 11:$17.875M, 12:$18M, 13:$19.25M vesting player option

full no-trade clause

Total package: 5/91.5, or 6/$110.75 if the option vests

If you replace the first two years of that deal with $7.5M and $10.5M, reflecting the lower value of Bedard's remaining arb years, you come out with 5/76.75, or 6/96 if the option vests.

[blueberryale77]

Do you feel the same way about BRob?

No. He's much cheaper, won't get us as much in a trade, has some positives in terms of how he relates to the press and community, and has indicated more willingness to stick around and even give a hometown discount if we can get things on the right track. In his case I would float his name to certain teams who have prospects we want but there is no urgency to get him out the door. I also think the deadline next year might be the better time to maximize his value. His second half dropoff this year was even bigger than usual between the ear infection, Gibbons, and the implosion of the pitching and along with Mitchell questions that might put his value about as low as it could possibly be right now. The best time to trade him is when first half BRob is fresh in opposing scout's minds, but I don't think it's a disaster if you don't trade him. Now if we get to next offseason and haven't improved, it does start to become an emergency. Actually, unless we have a shockingly good first half next year he should probably be shopped very aggressively at the deadline. But right now getting a kickass deal for Bedard should be a much bigger priority and is much more likely to happen.

[PlumOriole]

BTW...Not sure how much everyone cares but Trembley has impressed the hell out of everyone. Sounds like he could very well be a long term Baltimore style manager. His work effort is fantastic and his passion is even better. I am rooting for him.

Yeah. The O's website mentions people really liking him and the way he is going about his business. Shelby was very impressed.

[srock]

120 post thread in one hour....Don't any of us have jobs? LOL

I hope orioleshangout.com does not appear anywhere on my annual review.

Has anyone else charged 120 minutes while reading this thread

[AgentOrange]

120 post thread in one hour....Don't any of us have jobs? LOL

I pretty much do the same thing that you do at work. So I am free unless customer's call or come to the SR...