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Jones growing up, calming down

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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He has been average, maybe just a fraction below average, for a starting CF. I choose to define that as "pretty good" because I've seen a lot of CF's come and go. As Drungo stated earlier in the thread, he'd pretty much have to fall off a bus not to be one of the 5 best CF's in Orioles history.

Anderson 30.7 rWAR (30.8 as an Oriole)

Blair 30.4 rWAR (32.7 as an Oriole)

Bumbry 22.0 rWAR (22.3 as an Oriole)

Devereaux 11.5 rWAR (10.1 as an Oriole)

Jones 7.9 rWAR (8.3 as an Oriole)

Patterson 5.6 rWAR (4.4 as an Oriole)

Matos 3.6 rWAR (3.5 as an Oriole)

I left off Fred Lynn who had 7.3 rWAR as an Oriole, 47.3 overall.

How are you coming up with average for a starting CF?

The rankings in fWAR I just posted have him being below average.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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How are you coming up with average for a starting CF?

The rankings in fWAR I just posted have him being below average.

Over the three years, he is 17th. Average would be 15th/16th. There may be 20 guys ahead of Jones in any one year, but if they can't perform consistently I don't regard them as better overall. And as I pointed out, some of the guys ranked ahead of Jones aren't really full time CF's even though fangraphs lists them there. Fangraphs will list players at more than one position.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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Over the three years, he is 17th. Average would be 15th/16th. There may be 20 guys ahead of Jones in any one year, but if they can't perform consistently I don't regard them as better overall. And as I pointed out, some of the guys ranked ahead of Jones aren't really full time CF's even though fangraphs lists them there. Fangraphs will list players at more than one position.

That's just means he's consistently mediocre and he's been able to play a good amount of games. He's been below average each year. And considering there weren't 30 qualifiers each year, your average is being a bit generous imo.

But fair point on the CF issue. So lets just go with all qualified Of's last year. Jones was tied for 38th out of 62 last year, in what was his best season in terms of fWAR.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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That's just means he's consistently mediocre, if that and he's been able to play a good amount of games. He's been below average each year. And considering there weren't 30 qualifiers each year, your average is being a bit generous imo.

But fair point on the CF issue. So lets just go with all qualified Of's last year. Jones was tied for 38th out of 62 last year, in what was his best season in terms of fWAR.

So you're saying he's maybe a tick below MLB average going into his age 25 season? That's not half bad. There's a lot of value in being an average major league center fielder. If you're an average player going into your age 30 season it probably means you're in line for a 3/30 or maybe 5/50 kind of deal.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Is Jones really an above average starting CF?

He was tied for 20th out of 27 qualifying CF's in fWAR last year.

In 2009 he ws 22nd out of 25.

In 2008 he was 19th out of 25.

Yea, that's Fangraphs' WAR, which is the most pessimistic look at Jones since UZR rates him quite a bit lower than the other advanced metrics.

In bb-ref WAR he was 10th of 20 CFers in 2010 (min 100 games). In 2009 he was 14th of 24. In 2008 he was 11th of 24. Overall from '08-10 he was 9th of 24 CFers who played 250+ games. A metric using +/- for fielding numbers would show similar results.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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So you're saying he's maybe a tick below MLB average going into his age 25 season? That's not half bad. There's a lot of value in being an average major league center fielder. If you're an average player going into your age 30 season it probably means you're in line for a 3/30 or maybe 5/50 kind of deal.

I'm not saying it's bad. He's just being a little overrated by some imo.

And signing a 30 year old 2-2.5 WAR CF to a contract like that would be a rather poor decision imo.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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Yea, that's Fangraphs' WAR, which is the most pessimistic look at Jones since UZR rates him quite a bit lower than the other advanced metrics.

In bb-ref WAR he was 10th of 20 CFers in 2010 (min 100 games). In 2009 he was 14th of 24. In 2008 he was 11th of 24. Overall from '08-10 he was 9th of 24 CFers who played 250+ games. A metric using +/- for fielding numbers would show similar results.

Fair enough. It's just the WAR that I look at. I also tend to agree with their defensive outlook on Jones more than the other metrics.

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Gurgi Hangout Grand Counsel

Gurgi

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I remember the first two months of 09. He was hitting .350 and mashing homeruns. I thought he was going to be a superstar. Then the league figured out you dont have to throw him strikes. Hasnt been the same since.

So far he looks quite replaceable.

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AgentOrange Veteran All-Star

AgentOrange

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I remember the first two months of 09. He was hitting .350 and mashing homeruns. I thought he was going to be a superstar. Then the league figured out you dont have to throw him strikes. Hasnt been the same since.

So far he looks quite replaceable.

What have you been watching?

He is off to a slow start this year but even in a "down" year last year he had very solid numbers for a 24 yr old CF

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I remember the first two months of 09. He was hitting .350 and mashing homeruns. I thought he was going to be a superstar. Then the league figured out you dont have to throw him strikes. Hasnt been the same since.

So far he looks quite replaceable.

I think this gets to the core of the issue. When a guy has some of the tools to be a superstar and he only ends up being a solid player some people are going to label him a massive disappointment.

If Jones was 5' 7", 150 lbs and a 45th round draft pick acquired on a waiver claim he'd be the most popular player on the Hangout.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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I think this gets to the core of the issue. When a guy has some of the tools to be a superstar and he only ends up being a solid player some people are going to label him a massive disappointment.

If Jones was 5' 7", 150 lbs and a 45th round draft pick acquired on a waiver claim he'd be the most popular player on the Hangout.

He is. I am still waiting to hear what you think his atributes are, other than a good arm, occasional power, and a decent BA? What did I miss?
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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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I've resigned to the fact that he is what he is. He's always going to flail at low and outside sliders. He's gonna strike out a bunch and walk very little. He'll be ridiculously good when he goes on a tear.

I'm not inclined to throw a remote ala Scorpio when he strikes out on pitches out of the zone anymore. I'm just gonna roll my eyes and utter a sigh.

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