Stark: Lots of teams interested in Guthrie?

[BROOK5]

I have no problem trading Guts in a good deal, but it seems to me that we'd be looking for a SP as soon as we dealt him.

IMO, our best path to competing over the next few years is to trot out Guts, Arrieta, BMat and ZBritt four out of every five games.

I have to agree. Part of me is saying we should trade him before his value deflates like what happened with Miggy, but our starting pitching could be as good as anyone else in the division with Guts in the mix. Without him, we have substantially less depth at starting pitching. I agree with the whole if we get blown away, we should trade him philosophy (but who wouldn't?). Bedard pulled in a top position prospect and a top pitching prospect, and even though Guts isn't in Bedard's league, I'd want more than just Alonso, who could easily become the next Brandon Snyder or Nick Johnson.

[bluedog]

Ok, so you don't think it's realistic to be in the hunt at that time. But like I said, what if we are? If we are tied for the WC or a game out I don't think it really matters who we are fighting with. I just don't see how they could defend that type of move in such a situation to their fans and players, and how it would make sense to hurt the chances at the playoffs when reaching them is the most important objective.

I agree. If we are in the playoff race for the first time in over 12 years and the O's front office deals our #1 starter it will in all likelihood destroy any faith left in the clubhouse or the fanbase at large in this team. I just don't see that happening.

[HokieOs]

I have no problem trading Guts in a good deal, but it seems to me that we'd be looking for a SP as soon as we dealt him.

IMO, our best path to competing over the next few years is to trot out Guts, Arrieta, BMat and ZBritt four out of every five games.

I will admit, this is a possibility many on here (myself included) haven't even considered. What if we can... ya know.... ahem.... sign him back? Granted, I think we'd need to sign him at a good price.... but if we can do it at a good price, that would be a solid rotation.... Britton, Matusz, Guthrie, Arrieta..... imagine that... four guys slotted about where they belong with good teams. Wow.... that's kinda cool. In fact, even with good teams, Guthrie would be a second starter for some and Arrieta has the looks of a legit #3 guy that we could use as our 4th..... Plus Guthrie is low mileage for his age. I see no reason he couldn't go another 5 years.

Now if we can only get the hitting in order.

[Sports Guy]

I agree. If we are in the playoff race for the first time in over 12 years and the O's front office deals our #1 starter it will in all likelihood destroy any faith left in the clubhouse or the fanbase at large in this team. I just don't see that happening.

There is no doubt that they keep Guthrie in this scenario.

The question is, would that be the right decision?

[GoldGlove21]

If the Orioles were in a playoff race (>5 Games) come the All-Star game and we decide to deal Guthrie then how does the FO swing the idea that winning is the most important thing in the clubhouse? If you deal Guthrie in any scenario then you are likely going to need a strong return to get both the current roster and the fans to understand why such a move would be made.

I think trading Guthrie makes the most sense as he is not getting younger, he isn't likely to get any better, he is not going to be cheap when it comes to his salary and the Orioles could get a quality return for him IMO.

The scenario I keep thinking about is tied to us keeping Guthrie until the end of his contract and letting him walk for the draft picks. Guthrie could be an type A in two years IMO. The problem with this scenario is that Guthrie could be inclined to accept arbitration to stay with the Orioles. If I was his age and a team offered me a 3/$30M deal I would be hard pressed to sign a 1/$12M deal to sign with a team that only seemed interested in signing me on a year-by-year basis.

[crowmst3k!]

Trading Guts now, considering team control and the scarcity of SP, would have to yield a knockout return in terms of prospects to be worthy of consderation. I'm talking at least one A-level infield prospect ready to contribute now, and an A-level pitching prospect at least in high class A MiLB to make it worth while.

[Satyr3206]

I think the Draft is the key. If they get a pitcher that's close to ML ready and a good offer I say Guts should be dealt regardless of the standings. I will admit that I am biased to a degree because I don't like long term deals for pitchers.

[HokieOs]

Trading Guts now, considering team control and the scarcity of SP, would have to yield a knockout return in terms of prospects to be worthy of consderation. I'm talking at least one A-level infield prospect ready to contribute now, and an A-level pitching prospect at least in high class A MiLB to make it worth while.

While I think you may be asking a little bit much... I think your approach is a much more reasonable way of looking at this than the whole "he must be traded and take the best offer" approach that many here are taking. If we don't get something really good... and I mean really good, he should remain an Oriole.

[LookinUp]

I think this is pretty simple. If the O's are contending in late July they should very likely keep Guts, if they aren't, they should very likely trade him for the best offer.

I think this is wrong. What about the Orioles scouting makes you think we should just accept the best offer and move on? We need high probability guys and power arms. I'd rather take the extra 1.5 years of time and draft picks than trade him for an averageish package. Heck, I may even prefer to re-sign him, even though I think that's a bad idea. Trading him now for less than a very very nice haul is dumb, IMO.

[HokieOs]

I think this is wrong. What about the Orioles scouting makes you think we should just accept the best offer and move on? We need high probability guys and power arms. I'd rather take the extra 1.5 years of time and draft picks than trade him for an averageish package. Heck, I may even prefer to re-sign him, even though I think that's a bad idea. Trading him now for less than a very very nice haul is dumb, IMO.

Well that all depends how much re-signing him will cost. It will most likely be too expensive, but who knows. Barring something horrific, we'll get draft picks if we lose him... unless someone offers us an insane package.

[LookinUp]

Well that all depends how much re-signing him will cost. It will most likely be too expensive, but who knows. Barring something horrific, we'll get draft picks if we lose him... unless someone offers us an insane package.

That's fine too. I'm most against ending up with a package that looks like Josh Bell and Steve Johnson, just because it's the best offer being made. I don't trust the O's to scout well. It's that simple.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

I would hate to lose Guthrie but if the right offer is there you have to move him.

If the offer is right, you'd have to move anyone. I think people misread how hard it will be to replace him.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

I think this is pretty simple. If the O's are contending in late July they should very likely keep Guts, if they aren't, they should very likely trade him for the best offer.

This is what we should not do.

[flashjordnk]

There is no doubt that they keep Guthrie in this scenario.

The question is, would that be the right decision?

Depends on how close we are and how close Britton is to getting shut down.

We do need to remember that Britton probably isn't ready to throw a full MLB slate of innings or I doubt the O's will let him. He's been a huge part of our success thus far, but I'm guessing he won't be allowed to do more than about 175 innings. At the pace that he's at now, he's got about 17 more starts left in the tank at 6.5 innings per. If he were to throw once every 5 times out in terms of games left he's got about 23 starts left. That's another 150(ish) innings. At this pace that puts him 30 over. If we trade Guthrie and lose Britton for 5 starts (roughly 30 innings) do we seriously think we'll contend long term?

And frankly missing Britton for 5 starts, come Aug/Sept how will this team do relying on Guthrie/Matusz/Arrieta/Tillman/BB. This is why it's too soon to seriously entertain offers for Guthrie. We really need to see what this team looks like with Matusz back in the fold. If BM comes back really strong and we're competing but have a really good offer for Guthrie on the table, we can look back at these first 48 games and use that as a barometer for performance. If the offense has picked it up by that point, and BM is dealing, their could be a strong case for not necessarily needing Guts for a final run in Sept.

I think it's too soon for this conversation and we need to wait it out and see how things shake down in the next 5 weeks.

[MikeAD]

While I think you may be asking a little bit much... I think your approach is a much more reasonable way of looking at this than the whole "he must be traded and take the best offer" approach that many here are taking. If we don't get something really good... and I mean really good, he should remain an Oriole.

Who has said this? I am pretty sure everyone who says best offer has said if its a good one. Nobody is saying trade him to trade him. I'm not sure how this keeps coming up.