Are there people on OH you feel could do a better job than AM or other members of the O's brass?

bluedog · July 9, 2011

When you spend every day with professional ball players, and come up through the ranks of amateur ball, you have a sense for the types of players that make it and the types of players that don't. Of course it doesn't make you infallable, but it is a HUGE advantage. I'd say pro experience isn't necessary for an amateur scout (scouting for draft or international scout), but for a pro scout it's a pretty important.
I often rely on mentally comping to players I played with that did or did not have success in college/minors when assessing high school and college players. Also, I never said it "gives you the tools to be a scout". But two people equally equipped mentally to evaluate players, one with baseball experience has an advantage. You just are not right about this, I'm sorry.

A fan watching the game is absolutely not better training, and any argument you make will be a weak one. I mean, if you'd like to share some sort of experience that is driving these opinions of yours, I'm open to having my mind changed. But this is almost 100% counter to what, like every one in the industry thinks (in as much as I've spoken with them).

I wasn't asked for credentials when I got my job because I was vouched for by someone who was very familiar with my level of understanding of the game. To some extent you are right, in that there are organizations who have started to farm the ranks of intelligent non-baseball people for scouting positions because they are a clean slate that can have the organization's values imprinted on them. But we are talking entry level positions as an associate scout (some orgs go so far as to hire an Area Scout with no baseball credentials, but that is RARE).

This is an honest question -- are you involved in scouting, or do you know scouts? I'm just curious as to how you've arrived at these conclusions about the industry.

Very interesting discussion and a worthwhile one I think.

I'm not involved in sports at all, but I am a CEO of a company and a board member for two others, and I've got 20 years experience working in various positions for large corporations. I can't speak about professional talent scouting as I have exactly zero experience in pro sports, but I don't think that would preclude me (or anyone else) from successfully acting as a General Manager for a pro sports team.

Here's why. I run a software development company. The core of our business is coding and artwork. I've never written a line of code or drawn a picture more complex than a stick person in my life. By your example, I should be completely incapable of successfully running my business, as I have no skill at all in the core disciplines critical to my company's success. But my job isn't to write code or create artwork - it's to set the strategy and goals for my company and to find the right people to execute them and then to course correct the company whenever something changes in the industry that demands a reaction.

So the first thing I did when I started my company was:

Hire a Creative Director / Lead Artist

Hire a Technical Director / Lead Coder

My businesses success is not determined by how good a coder I am or how good an artist I am - it's based on how well I did in hiring my Lead Developers and giving them the proper direction and tools for them to successfully achieve our business goals.

I don't believe pro sports is any different from any other business. Certainly, I could be wrong. Maybe sports works completely contrary to the business world at large, but given the success of guys like Beane and Epstein, I don't believe that's the case.

Maybe it would help you understand my perspective if I were to indicate how I'd run the O's if I were appointed GM tomorrow. Here are the top things I'd do in order of importance;

1. Bring in an independent financial analyst to evaluate the entire financial performance of the organization from top to bottom and identify areas of weakness and strength.

2. Interview every employee in the entire organization from janitors to players to Vice Presidents and get their personal, confidential opinion on what's right and what's wrong in the organization. There is simply nothing more valuable or instructive in fixing a broken business than talking to the people that live it every day.

3. Identify the key disciplines in the organization (Player Development, Player Evaluation, Sales & Marketing, Operations & Facilities, Finance & Legal etc.) and using #1 and #2 review the entire organization from top to bottom to determine what works and what doesn't work.

4. For areas of success (example - I've always felt that Camden Yards is run fantastically well, so maybe Operations & Facilities is in good shape) identify the key people in those divisions and make sure they stay in key roles in the organization moving forward. Where possible find competent people who have excelled in their roles and look for ways to promote them into roles of greater responsibility in areas of failure.

5. For each area of failure (example - player development, scouting) bring in an outside executive who is completely unconnected with the current organization and who has a proven track record in rehabilitating failing organizations / divisions in his area of expertise and have them scrutinize and analyze the existing personnel and system top to bottom.

6. Using the information gained from 1 - 5, build a small, executive team with expertise in each core discipline to conceptualize, author and publish a comprehensive strategy that clearly outlines the expected behavior, work ethic, business goals, organizational goals and disciplinary goals for the entire organization.

7. Reward any employee, executive or player who doesn't fit into the Organizational Strategy with a generous severance package. Be absolutely ruthless in removing employees who are not exceptional at their jobs regardless of who they are, how long they've been with the organization or who their relatives are or any other non-performance based concerns.

8. Where key executives have been let go - hire the best possible people to replace them. A premium would be placed hiring away individuals who have built the most successful divisions at other MLB franchises. Basically find the best scouting director in baseball and do whatever it takes to hire them away. Find the best manager and do the same. Repeat as necessary.

If I were to accomplish these tasks, I'd have the top available people in key positions (Scouting, Player Development, Coaching, etc) and as long as I gave them the authority and resources to do their job, I wouldn't need to have anything more than basic experience in any of their areas of expertise. The key to this type of approach is the GM must have the ability to put his ego aside and trust his people when it comes to decisions in their areas of competence. This is where most "bad" CEOs / GMs fail. They aren't capable of delegating important decisions, so they make poor decisions based on limited understanding instead listening to the people who know what they are doing.

This type of approach isn't the only way to success. George Steinbrenner overcame his Ego and constant meddling by allocating an unlimited amount of money over an unlimited amount of time and basically buying his way out of every mistake he made.

But this method doesn't require a GM with extensive baseball experience. It requires a GM to hire people with extensive baseball experience and let them use that experience to their fullest extent.

Malike · July 9, 2011

Very interesting discussion and a worthwhile one I think.
I'm not involved in sports at all, but I am a CEO of a company and a board member for two others, and I've got 20 years experience working in various positions for large corporations. I can't speak about professional talent scouting as I have exactly zero experience in pro sports, but I don't think that would preclude me (or anyone else) from successfully acting as a General Manager for a pro sports team.

Here's why. I run a software development company. The core of our business is coding and artwork. I've never written a line of code or drawn a picture more complex than a stick person in my life. By your example, I should be completely incapable of successfully running my business, as I have no skill at all in the core disciplines critical to my company's success. But my job isn't to write code or create artwork - it's to set the strategy and goals for my company and to find the right people to execute them and then to course correct the company whenever something changes in the industry that demands a reaction.

So the first thing I did when I started my company was:

Hire a Creative Director / Lead Artist

Hire a Technical Director / Lead Coder

My businesses success is not determined by how good a coder I am or how good an artist I am - it's based on how well I did in hiring my Lead Developers and giving them the proper direction and tools for them to successfully achieve our business goals.

I don't believe pro sports is any different from any other business. Certainly, I could be wrong. Maybe sports works completely contrary to the business world at large, but given the success of guys like Beane and Epstein, I don't believe that's the case.

Maybe it would help you understand my perspective if I were to indicate how I'd run the O's if I were appointed GM tomorrow. Here are the top things I'd do in order of importance;

1. Bring in an independent financial analyst to evaluate the entire financial performance of the organization from top to bottom and identify areas of weakness and strength.

2. Interview every employee in the entire organization from janitors to players to Vice Presidents and get their personal, confidential opinion on what's right and what's wrong in the organization. There is simply nothing more valuable or instructive in fixing a broken business than talking to the people that live it every day.

3. Identify the key disciplines in the organization (Player Development, Player Evaluation, Sales & Marketing, Operations & Facilities, Finance & Legal etc.) and using #1 and #2 review the entire organization from top to bottom to determine what works and what doesn't work.

4. For areas of success (example - I've always felt that Camden Yards is run fantastically well, so maybe Operations & Facilities is in good shape) identify the key people in those divisions and make sure they stay in key roles in the organization moving forward. Where possible find competent people who have excelled in their roles and look for ways to promote them into roles of greater responsibility in areas of failure.

5. For each area of failure (example - player development, scouting) bring in an outside executive who is completely unconnected with the current organization and who has a proven track record in rehabilitating failing organizations / divisions in his area of expertise and have them scrutinize and analyze the existing personnel and system top to bottom.

6. Using the information gained from 1 - 5, build a small, executive team with expertise in each core discipline to conceptualize, author and publish a comprehensive strategy that clearly outlines the expected behavior, work ethic, business goals, organizational goals and disciplinary goals for the entire organization.

7. Reward any employee, executive or player who doesn't fit into the Organizational Strategy with a generous severance package. Be absolutely ruthless in removing employees who are not exceptional at their jobs regardless of who they are, how long they've been with the organization or who their relatives are or any other non-performance based concerns.

8. Where key executives have been let go - hire the best possible people to replace them. A premium would be placed hiring away individuals who have built the most successful divisions at other MLB franchises. Basically find the best scouting director in baseball and do whatever it takes to hire them away. Find the best manager and do the same. Repeat as necessary.

If I were to accomplish these tasks, I'd have the top available people in key positions (Scouting, Player Development, Coaching, etc) and as long as I gave them the authority and resources to do their job, I wouldn't need to have anything more than basic experience in any of their areas of expertise. The key to this type of approach is the GM must have the ability to put his ego aside and trust his people when it comes to decisions in their areas of competence. This is where most "bad" CEOs / GMs fail. They aren't capable of delegating important decisions, so they make poor decisions based on limited understanding instead listening to the people who know what they are doing.

This type of approach isn't the only way to success. George Steinbrenner overcame his Ego and constant meddling by allocating an unlimited amount of money over an unlimited amount of time and basically buying his way out of every mistake he made.

But this method doesn't require a GM with extensive baseball experience. It requires a GM to hire people with extensive baseball experience and let them use that experience to their fullest extent.

You kept claiming Bergesen was going to be Roy Halladay. I'd stick to software.

CA-ORIOLE · July 9, 2011

"I think my only quibble is that my claim has never been you need experience playing baseball to be a GM."

Fair enough. My apologies if I took you out of context.

I said you need experience in baseball.

As a practical matter I undertsand you have to have experience to even get in. I question if a lot of that "experience" (i.e as a player), actually helps as a GM or not.

Many on here have real world experience and my assumption was a few on here probably have enough practical knowledge of baseball (being fanatics) and statistical knowledge to be more effective than AM as the GM.

I also have said that an ability to evaluate a player from a scouting perspective is necessary.

Maybe it's semantics. I think its important to understand the scouting information and the scout's perspective as well. At the same time I think it's important to critically assess, analyze and question the relevance of that information as well as the process.

You don't need to BE a scout, but you need to understand scouting. You don't HAVE to have played baseball to scout, but playing baseball can help a lot with that understanding.

It CAN help but it can also hurt. In my opinion, it might more likely hurt. That based on my listening to the opinion of many, many baseball player analysts over the years. I do think pitching as more applicable to scouting than other positions. Just an opinion. I think it's more dynamic and better suited for observational analysis.

Flosman · July 9, 2011

The only skillset that is absolutely necessary to run any large company is the ability to identify needs and hire the correct person(s) to fill that need and to make sure they get the resources necessary to successfully get their job done. It's nice to have a working knowledge of as many aspects of a business as you can, but for any large business there are going to be mission critical elements of the business that the CEO (or General Manager in this case) simply know nothing about. The core skill for top management is the ability to identify and hire people with the right skill set, attitude and work ethic to get various jobs done.
You don't have to understand the process of scouting, or the process of setting up a trade or balancing a team budget (although of course it wouldn't hurt to understand them). The GM shouldn't be doing those things - he should have people who are experts at doing each one of them that work for him. It's the GM (or CEOs) job to make decisions based on the expert advice and information provided to him by his minions. If he has the right minions he wins. If he has the wrong minions he gets the Orioles.

I don't think this is correct at all. Great corporate leaders understand the processes required to have success in their business. Understanding is what make a decision maker able to filter the noise. Now great leaders have the trait of being able to quickly adapt to new environments and gain understanding of critical processes.

I think it is easy to say some internet dude can do better than the guys running the epic failure that has been the Baltimore Orioles but it is not true. The best minds in the baseball industry compete for these jobs and then weed each other out by competing against each other in a zero sum environment. On top of that they have the normal measurement of financial success to deal with. Heck many on here show a lack of understanding of the time value of money but these same guys could outperform any GM. Child Pleease.

bluedog · July 9, 2011

I honestly can't believe this thread is still going on. I just don't understand it. There are a whole hell of a lot of smart people on this board, real smart people I'm sure, but there is not a single poster on this site who could walk into the GM office of the O's on Monday and start fixing this team. Nobody, no one, not one single person. What are you going to say when you are asked for your credentials? Well, sir, I have amassed nearly 100,000 posts on a message board and 90% of them were trade ideas.
Seriously people, and I don't mean this in a bad way at all. Not a single one of you could walk in there Monday morning and fix this team. I'm sure plenty of people here are bright enough to do the job with years of apprenticeship and training, but to think you could just walk in Monday and do the job is flat out ridiculous. I don't care how much MLB The Show, or GM video games you played. You would be overwhelmed in minutes, you'd be asked questions you have no idea how to answer, and by the end of the day you'd realize that you made a real foolish wish to that magic genie when you asked him to be the O's GM.

Really. No one here. No one. Nobody.

Thanks for applying a blanket general statement to 1000s of people you've never met and have absolutely no information about.

All you can say for certain is that YOU couldn't do it. Making claims for anyone else is pure speculation.

The O's are a business like any other business. There are probably dozens of people who are executives for companies that are every bit as complex as an MLB franchise who post on OH. Casting every OH poster as a video game GM is just stupid.

bluedog · July 9, 2011

I don't think this is correct at all. Great corporate leaders understand the processes required to have success in their business. Understanding is what make a decision maker able to filter the noise. Now great leaders have the trait of being able to quickly adapt to new environments and gain understanding of critical processes.
I think it is easy to say some internet dude can do better than the guys running the epic failure that has been the Baltimore Orioles but it is not true. The best minds in the baseball industry compete for these jobs and then weed each other out by competing against each other in a zero sum environment. On top of that they have the normal measurement of financial success to deal with. Heck many on here show a lack of understanding of the time value of money but these same guys could outperform any GM. Child Pleease.

Great corporate leaders understand the processes required to have success in ANY business.

So your argument is that because there are some people on OH who are childish and don't understand the time value of money, that no one on OH is capable of being a GM? Really?

You have no idea who posts here. Warren Buffet could be an O's fan on OH for all you know. Certainly the fact that Roy Firestone posts here proves that we're not all pimply faced nerds with no professional life.

I guarantee there are people that post on OH (or at least who lurk here) who have professional sports experience in scouting, player development and / or executive management.

CA-ORIOLE · July 9, 2011

I think it is easy to say some internet dude can do better than the guys running the epic failure that has been the Baltimore Orioles but it is not true.

Nice strawman.

The best minds in the baseball industry compete for these jobs and then weed each other out by competing against each other in a zero sum environment

You really think it works that way and AM and many of his minions are some of the best baseball minds in the industry? Or is it more about politics and connections?

Sports Guy · July 9, 2011

BTW, that OP doesn't say could someone step in today and do a better job than the current Orioles brass...Its asked if there are people on here who could do a better job.

There is a difference. One says you go in blind, right now..The other says you can be better than them in time...I have zero doubt that, in time, there are people on this site that could do better than AM. They are few and far between but they exist...And its not just AM either, there are a lot of awful decision makers throughout baseball.

bluedog · July 9, 2011

You kept claiming Bergesen was going to be Roy Halladay. I'd stick to software.

You make my point for me. If I were GM, I wouldn't make player evaluations, I'd hire a professional to do it and trust his experience.

I'm happy to predict Bergesen will be the next Halladay as a fan, where if I'm wrong, there's no downside to that prediction. As a GM I would be smart enough not to make that prediction, because I'm not professionally qualified to make it.

Sports Guy · July 9, 2011

You make my point for me. If I were GM, I wouldn't make player evaluations, I'd hire a professional to do it and trust his experience.
I'm happy to predict Bergesen will be the next Halladay as a fan, where if I'm wrong, there's no downside to that prediction. As a GM I would be smart enough not to make that prediction, because I'm not professionally qualified to make it.

But if you, as a GM, fall in love with a player and overevaluate him yourself, then you can really screw up.

bluedog · July 9, 2011

But if you, as a GM, fall in love with a player and overevaluate him yourself, then you can really screw up.

Exactly. Which is why the GM (or Owner) shouldn't fall in love with individual players and even if he does, he shouldn't tell anyone about it - he has to remain objective and base his decisions on real data points and not personal feelings. When someone in a position of absolute authority makes a decision like that, it prevents everyone below them from objectively doing their job as they will color all of their own decisions based on what they think their boss prefers.

There is a lot of evidence that AM overly favors players he formerly had dealings with while he was GM of the Cubs. That's a completely arbitrary element that has probably skewed player acquisition in favor of guys like Pie when there might have been better options out there.

Now if AM were a player evaluation genius, you can make allowances for the GM running that part of the business. But he clearly isn't a genius, he's not even above average relative to other GMs given his track record. He needs to find a genius, hire him and let him run that aspect of the business.

Stotle · July 9, 2011

You make my point for me. If I were GM, I wouldn't make player evaluations, I'd hire a professional to do it and trust his experience.
I'm happy to predict Bergesen will be the next Halladay as a fan, where if I'm wrong, there's no downside to that prediction. As a GM I would be smart enough not to make that prediction, because I'm not professionally qualified to make it.

The problem with that is you are describing Nolan Ryan's or Peter Angelos's job -- CEO. They hire GMs to handle baseball personnel decisions. When you say you'd hire someone qualified to make baseball player evaluations, you are describing the position of GM. Essentially, you could be a good GM by hiring a good GM and relying on his advice.

I responded to your longer post above but for some reason it didn't show up. I think you show you obviously know how to put a company together. I think it's clear that someone with that knowledge is better equipped to handle a role like GM than someone with no managerial experience but experience as a player. Unquestionably so. But that doesn't mean you don't need the baseball experience in some capacity before being able to step in and run the show.

I think someone with your credentials could certainly own a team and run it successfully as a CEO. And you'd do so by hiring a smart GM that knows the baseball industry and his way around the game.