In the Long Run, Would We Be Better Off Dealing Jones?

[El Gordo]

Obviously there are certain scenarios in which it'd make sense to trade Jones in a 1-for-1 deal. I'd almost certainly trade him for the second coming of Jesus Christ, for example (even if He couldn't hit a baseball, at least you'd know booze prices at Camden would come down).

Name a "realistic" 1-for-1 trade, though, and no...I don't think it'd make sense. Jimenez would not make sense. Billingsley would not make sense. Even having and keeping King Felix would not make sense. The O's are too thin across the board to trade one talented player for one other, talented player. Particularly an expensive, or soon-to-be expensive one (particularly x2 in light of the fact that part of your rationale for trading Jones is his impending price tag).

I guess I'll amend my prior statement, in case it wasn't already clear: making a 1-for-1 trade like the ones you mentioned would be an inexcusable waste.

He most certainly would, but of course Jones would not be enough to get him. A young TOR SP would be a number one need. But 2 years of Jones isn't worth more than 3 B+ near ML ready SP prospects.

[Enjoy Terror]

How far exactly are the O's away from being a solid team though? A first baseman, a left fielder, a starting pitching rotation and perhaps a bullpen.

If the O's can go out and sign someone like Fielder and starter, I think Matusz and Britton would be okay by then to join Arrieta.

Honestly, it's been a rough year with injuries, but I'm not ready at all to say Matusz and Britton are busts, and I think the Orioles are closer than the fans think.

[MrOrange82]

He most certainly would, but of course Jones would not be enough to get him. A young TOR SP would be a number one need. But 2 years of Jones isn't worth more than 3 B+ near ML ready SP prospects.

Well, that's the thing. SG wanted me to answer a question that would only ever be posed in Bizarro World. After looking at Felix's contract, I can see why he'd be a keeper (and I'm not dithering because I question his talent at-all, but because...well, look at the M's. They suck, too, and they have him right now. Clearly it takes much more than a bona fide ace to compete). Still, in all honesty, I think the O's would be better off with the prospects he'd net. Lord knows they won't pay to re-sign him after year 3 (and we further know they won't be going to the playoffs in that timeframe).

[Greg Pappas]

How far exactly are the O's away from being a solid team though? A first baseman, a left fielder, a starting pitching rotation and perhaps a bullpen.

If the O's can go out and sign someone like Fielder and starter, I think Matusz and Britton would be okay by then to join Arrieta.

Honestly, it's been a rough year with injuries, but I'm not ready at all to say Matusz and Britton are busts, and I think the Orioles are closer than the fans think.

I don't think anyone (sane) considers Britton a bust, and most are in the 'wait and see' mode on Matusz. Britton should be very good for many years. Arrieta is a decent back of the rotation pitcher, as it stands now. If things broke right, then yes, adding a Fielder and Darvish and Willingham would improve the team. With those additions, and if BRob returned to a facsimile of his prior form, and if Matusz returned to his prior form, and if Wieters improved offensively, and if we could stay clear of injuries as a whole, we could be a solid team.

When you say you think we're closer than the fans think, do you mean that a few key additions would bring us close to or even into the playoffs?

[El Gordo]

If Jones isn't a LT piece, who is?

Are we only talking about Machado and Britton now?

Two years isn't long term. If we can't extend him soon, he is worth more in trade.

[SteveA]

I don't think anyone (sane) considers Britton a bust, and most are in the 'wait and see' mode on Matusz. Britton should be very good for many years. Arrieta is a decent back of the rotation pitcher, as it stands now. If things broke right, then yes, adding a Fielder and Darvish and Willingham would improve the team. With those additions, and if BRob returned to a facsimile of his prior form, and if Matusz returned to his prior form, and if Wieters improved offensively, and if we could stay clear of injuries as a whole, we could be a solid team.

When you say you think we're closer than the fans think, do you mean that a few key additions would bring us close to or even into the playoffs?

If we get 3 good ML pitchers out of {Britton/Arrietta/Matusz/Tillman}, including at least 2 #2 or better caliber starters, and they add a second wildcard, then yes, I think we are just a few key additions from being close to the playoffs.

If those pitchers are a bust we aren't sniffing the playoffs for the next 3 years. No matter what moves we make. Period.

That's where we are right now.

We hoped this season would "answer" our questions about those four pitchers and we'd know where we stand. Well, it hasn't.

There's still a lot of season left. Maybe we'll be closer to an answer then.

[Sports Guy]

Well, that's the thing. SG wanted me to answer a question that would only ever be posed in Bizarro World. After looking at Felix's contract, I can see why he'd be a keeper (and I'm not dithering because I question his talent at-all, but because...well, look at the M's. They suck, too, and they have him right now. Clearly it takes much more than a bona fide ace to compete). Still, in all honesty, I think the O's would be better off with the prospects he'd net. Lord knows they won't pay to re-sign him after year 3 (and we further know they won't be going to the playoffs in that timeframe).

You are the one who said trading 1 for 1 is an inexcusable waste..So, you either mean that or you don't.

[MrOrange82]

You are the one who said trading 1 for 1 is an inexcusable waste..So, you either mean that or you don't.

I just clearly explained what I meant by that, and I'd challenge you to come up with a realistic scenario (as in...a deal that could actually happen) by which it'd make sense to trade Jones 1-for-1.

And regardless, I can't think of a 1-for-1 scenario wherein it'd make sense to keep whoever we got in exchange, no matter how preposterous your suggestion. For example, I think the O's would be better off, given the current state of the team, with the prospects and young MLers that could be acquired for someone of Pujols' stature than Pujols himself.

But again, since we seem to be testing the uppermost limits of your processing power: a 1-for-1 trade that actually exists within the realm of "legitimately possible" would be a complete, inexcusable waste.

[chamdog]

Id like to keep AJ I like his fire and he's a great piece toward a winning team ,but I can't see him resigning in bmore I think he is effected my the fans for NY and BOS comming into candam yards and taking over and what's to play for a team that gets support . I don't think he signs so It would be in the best interest of the O's to trade him. IMO

[Sports Guy]

I just clearly explained what I meant by that, and I'd challenge you to come up with a realistic scenario (as in...a deal that could actually happen) by which it'd make sense to trade Jones 1-for-1.

And regardless, I can't think of a 1-for-1 scenario wherein it'd make sense to keep whoever we got in exchange, no matter how preposterous your suggestion. For example, I think the O's would be better off, given the current state of the team, with the prospects and young MLers that could be acquired for someone of Pujols' stature than Pujols himself.

But again, since we seem to be testing the uppermost limits of your processing power: a 1-for-1 trade that actually exists within the realm of "legitimately possible" would be a complete, inexcusable waste.

If we could extend him, I would deal Jones for Matt Cain.

A true TOR starter is much harder to find than a 2-3 WAR CFer.

[MrOrange82]

If we could extend him, I would deal Jones for Matt Cain.

A true TOR starter is much harder to find than a 2-3 WAR CFer.

It doesn't matter what move you would make. Can we get Matt Cain for Jones? I doubt it. Yes, the Giants need bats...but the organization clearly isn't run by fools. Pitching got them a WS title, and I think it's...extremely unlikely that they'd trade a young, successful starter (who's signed through next season at a reasonable price) for a "2-3 WAR CFer." Never mind the fact that Jones has never been worth more than 2.6 WAR, whereas Cain has never been worth less than 3.4 (since making 2 appearances in 2005).

[Sports Guy]

It doesn't matter what move you would make. Can we get Matt Cain for Jones? I doubt it. Yes, the Giants need bats...but the organization clearly isn't run by fools. Pitching got them a WS title, and I think it's...extremely unlikely that they'd trade a young, successful starter (who's signed through next season at a reasonable price) for a "2-3 WAR CFer." Never mind the fact that Jones has never been worth more than 2.6 WAR, whereas Cain has never been worth less than 3.4 (since making 2 appearances in 2005).

Cain is a FA after next year and is due to make 15M. Jones can be extended and likely for a lot less than Cain and have the need for a bat.

Its not a move that could be made now but maybe in the offseason.

But that is besides the point..You keep side stepping this..You made a statement and it was a poor one.

This all started from me saying that i would use Jones to get a TOR starter if possible and you saying that a 1 for 1 swap would be a poor use of him.

So, what exactly is your point? You seem to be flip flopping or you are just be inconsistent and not clear.

My stance is this...If Jones fetches you a TOR starter, having that 1 starter is more valuable to us than Jones IMO. So, in that case, a 1 for 1 swap isn't a poor use of resources.

[BohKnowsBmore]

If doesn't make much sense to trade Jones if you get Rasmus. Rasmus isn't a great CF, but he's better than Jones. If you move Jones to left and put Rasmus in center then you instantly improve LF without leaving a gaping hole in CF. You can then DH Reimold or leave it open for rotation. At that point all you need to do is improve first and second.

I thought it was interesting that at one point some posters considered rasmus as > jones.

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[Frobby]

I think the O's would be better off with the prospects he'd net. Lord knows they won't pay to re-sign him after year 3 (and we further know they won't be going to the playoffs in that timeframe).

It's amazing the things we think we know.

[MikeAD]

It's amazing the things we think we know.

Wrong on so many levels. We made the playoffs twice, we almost made it three times. We re-signed Jones and Hardy and were in on Cruz and Markakis until their available contracts became unreasonable.

We paid for Cruz last year, and although it hasn't fully worked out yet, Jimenez.

Such a great thing to be wrong about!