Is Soriano the first player the O's SHOULD go after?

[bgfield]

OF's get a lot of assists for two reasons. They have great arms or teams feel they are a liability and run on them all of the time. I'm not sure where Soriano fits but it might be a little of both.

Probably definitely a bit. People thought he was a liability at the start of the year and he quickly proved everyone wrong. That he's still racking up the OF assists says to me he's a good LFer.

I'm with Andy on this one. I hope we sign Soriano. I hope he puts up similar numbers with us next year. I hope he helps us win another ten or so games in 2007. I hope!

[Avsfan]

He's not the best left fielder in baseball....

[Ruzious]

Belle was twice the player Soriano is

Belle was to the OF as Soriano was to 2B - just a putrid defensive player. Great hitter though. People were mainly unhappy with the Belle signing at the time because:

1. He was the biggest jerk in the sport, and

2. His signing effectively meant the O's weren't going to keep Palmeiro.

[Mackus]

teams stopped running on him because of his new postion months ago and he still throws out base runner.

He's the #2 ranked leftfielder in baseball http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/playerrankings/regularseason/LF

1st player in history with 40HRs/30SBs/20 OF assists and 1 SB away from 40/40.

Hey Flanny, do you read these boards? SIGN THIS GUY, if you still have a job in Baltimore next year.

If angelos says no, be a man and quit.

Andy,

Would you have given Soriano a 5/$75M contract before this season, based on his numbers in his career up until this year?

This season obviously increases his value, but I don't know if it makes him as valuable as the guys that put up those kinds of numbers every year, because he's only done it once.

I would expect him to hit at least 150-175 HR over a 5 year contract, I'm not worried about his power, but his speed is going to disappear (that cannot be argued, just debated about how quickly it will happen), and we don't know if he's going to be the .350+ OBP guy he was this year, or tho ~.320 OBP guy he was for the rest of his career.

I'd be very excited if we sign him, but to say its a complete slam dunk that giving him a huge contract (6/$90M is probably what it would take) would be a good move, is simply inaccurate. Theres lots to debate here, its certainly not open-and-shut as you make it out to be.

[Mackus]

Belle was to the OF as Soriano was to 2B - just a putrid defensive player.

Belle had a career rate of 97 in LF and 103 in RF according to Baseball Prospectus.

[Ruzious]

Belle had a career rate of 97 in LF and 103 in RF according to Baseball Prospectus.

Well, I have no idea what that means. If it means he was adequate, then perhaps those ratings have no meaning.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well, I have no idea what that means. If it means he was adequate, then perhaps those ratings have no meaning.

Or perhaps just watching someone play defense when the ball is hit their direction isn't quite as good a measure of performance as a systematic accouting of all of their plays made or not made in the field.

You also have to remember Joey played the vast majority of his games in left. He appears to have had a few good years in the field, but the BP system that Rate is based on also has him at -30 runs defensively over his career. When his hip blew up he was rated below average in right.

[Frobby]

Or perhaps just watching someone play defense when the ball is hit their direction isn't quite as good a measure of performance as a systematic accouting of all of their plays made or not made in the field.

You also have to remember Joey played the vast majority of his games in left. He appears to have had a few good years in the field, but the BP system that Rate is based on also has him at -30 runs defensively over his career. When his hip blew up he was rated below average in right.

I have no idea how he was before he got to Baltimore. He was terrible here. When balls went into the RF corner it seemed they would never come out.

[Andy_Dufresne]

Andy,

Would you have given Soriano a 5/$75M contract before this season, based on his numbers in his career up until this year?

This season obviously increases his value, but I don't know if it makes him as valuable as the guys that put up those kinds of numbers every year, because he's only done it once.

I would expect him to hit at least 150-175 HR over a 5 year contract, I'm not worried about his power, but his speed is going to disappear (that cannot be argued, just debated about how quickly it will happen), and we don't know if he's going to be the .350+ OBP guy he was this year, or tho ~.320 OBP guy he was for the rest of his career.

I'd be very excited if we sign him, but to say its a complete slam dunk that giving him a huge contract (6/$90M is probably what it would take) would be a good move, is simply inaccurate. Theres lots to debate here, its certainly not open-and-shut as you make it out to be.

He may be the best offensivefree agent available. He's a good defensive OF, for a player who's never played it before. He's gotten significantly better over the year. He's got a strong and accurate arm. He's in his prime and his production, absent injuries, shouldn't diminsh thru a 5 year contract.

For the Orioles, his hustle would set the example that Tejada should, but doesn't. Bat him leadoff, followed by Roberts, Nick and Miggy and you have a strong top 4. Bat him 4th, behind Miggy and in front of Gibbons and both of those players would be better.

Given the miserable performance of the Orioles over the past 9 year, Soriano would be an incredible upgrade.

Pay the man his money. 5/75 is probably market rate. 6/90 would be a great opening offer.

[geschinger]

He's in his prime and his production, absent injuries, shouldn't diminsh thru a 5 year contract.

We'd be signing him for his age 31-36 seasons. I don't think under any definition that those could be considered his prime years. We need to be realistic, thinking his 2006 season is a barometer for what we could expect over the next 5 years is not realistic.

Let's look at his career. What are we most likely to get? I believe we're looking at player who over 5 years will have a ceiling of an OPS of .850, he'll have an OPS in the .820 range overall and will be a sub .800 OPS player at the end of the contract. Looking at past players who've had seasons like Soriano they almost always drop back down to what they were before. Adrian Beltre, Javy Lopez, etc...

So whether you want to sign Soriano or not we should not pretend that we'll be penciling in a .950+ OPS guy into the lineup if we sign him even if you want him badly enough to pay him as if he's a .950+ OPS guy.

[Ruzious]

Or perhaps just watching someone play defense when the ball is hit their direction isn't quite as good a measure of performance as a systematic accouting of all of their plays made or not made in the field.

Or perhaps the system doesn't work very well.

[DrungoHazewood]

Or perhaps the system doesn't work very well.

Probably one or the other.

[DrungoHazewood]

We'd be signing him for his age 31-36 seasons. I don't think under any definition that those could be considered his prime years. We need to be realistic, thinking his 2006 season is a barometer for what we could expect over the next 5 years is not realistic.

Let's look at his career. What are we most likely to get? I believe we're looking at player who over 5 years will have a ceiling of an OPS of .850, he'll have an OPS in the .820 range overall and will be a sub .800 OPS player at the end of the contract. Looking at past players who've had seasons like Soriano they almost always drop back down to what they were before. Adrian Beltre, Javy Lopez, etc...

So whether you want to sign Soriano or not we should not pretend that we'll be penciling in a .950+ OPS guy into the lineup if we sign him even if you want him badly enough to pay him as if he's a .950+ OPS guy.

Here's an interesting comparison: Frank Robinson.

Frank had a career year in 1966 at the age of 30. Alfonso Soriano is having a career year in 2006 at the age of 30.

The difference is that Frank was worth about 11.8 wins (over replacement) to the O's, while Soriano is going to be worth about 10. So at their peaks Soriano is worth about 85% of Frank Robinson.

If that were to continue, if Soriano were to somehow age as well as one of the 20 or 30 greatest players of all time, this is how he'd do:

2007: 8 WARP

2008: 5.1

2009: 8.1

2010: 5.5

2011: 5.3

2012: 3.5

Rule of thumb, 9 WARP is MVP quality, 7 is all star-ish, 5 is Jay Gibbons in a decent year, 3 is an ok player.

The Orioles would be paying $70-$90 million dollars for a guy who'd be lucky to give us two all star years, three decent years, and a year as a fill in. And that's if his progression tracks Frank Robinson.

The only way I see that being worth it is if this is part of a larger plan that will clearly make the Orioles strong contenders within the first 2-3 years of Soriano's deal.

[Andy_Dufresne]

Here's an interesting comparison: Frank Robinson.

Frank had a career year in 1966 at the age of 30. Alfonso Soriano is having a career year in 2006 at the age of 30.

The difference is that Frank was worth about 11.8 wins (over replacement) to the O's, while Soriano is going to be worth about 10. So at their peaks Soriano is worth about 85% of Frank Robinson.

If that were to continue, if Soriano were to somehow age as well as one of the 20 or 30 greatest players of all time, this is how he'd do:

2007: 8 WARP

2008: 5.1

2009: 8.1

2010: 5.5

2011: 5.3

2012: 3.5

Rule of thumb, 9 WARP is MVP quality, 7 is all star-ish, 5 is Jay Gibbons in a decent year, 3 is an ok player.

The Orioles would be paying $70-$90 million dollars for a guy who'd be lucky to give us two all star years, three decent years, and a year as a fill in. And that's if his progression tracks Frank Robinson.

The only way I see that being worth it is if this is part of a larger plan that will clearly make the Orioles strong contenders within the first 2-3 years of Soriano's deal.

Given that analysis, what free agents qualify for an Oriole's offer as a top tier FA?

Soriano would be a better long term signing in 2007 than Konerko would have been in 2006.

Are there any free agents who this board would agree to sign at market value?

If not? Are there any players in the Orioles organization that can come in and supply 150-160 HRs over the next 5 years, 470-520 RBIs, 100-150 SBs? And hit around .280. Soriano is a proven player, with a track record of success. Aside from Tejada, has any Oriole come close to equaling Soriano's success over the last 5 years?

You can all argue that he's not perfect, but he's one of the 5 best LFs in baseball. He's available and fills a need for a team that is one of the worst in baseball and has been for 9 years and hasn't been to a World Series in 23 years (one of the longest absenses in baseball).

[Sports Guy]

Given that analysis, what free agents qualify for an Oriole's offer as a top tier FA?

Soriano would be a better long term signing in 2007 than Konerko would have been in 2006.

Are there any free agents who this board would agree to sign at market value?

If not? Are there any players in the Orioles organization that can come in and supply 150-160 HRs over the next 5 years, 470-520 RBIs, 100-150 SBs? And hit around .280. Soriano is a proven player, with a track record of success. Aside from Tejada, has any Oriole come close to equaling Soriano's success over the last 5 years?

You can all argue that he's not perfect, but he's one of the 5 best LFs in baseball. He's available and fills a need for a team that is one of the worst in baseball and has been for 9 years and hasn't been to a World Series in 23 years (one of the longest absenses in baseball).

Aramis Ramirez.(if he becomes a FA)