Is Yankee/Red Sox Hegemony coming to an end?

[SilentJames]

No.

As Sean said. The way these teams are run and financed they will always be at or near the top of this division. Unless these teams just get racked with injuries and bad luck throughout their systems they will be perennial contenders.

Where as other teams have windows of competition that last from, say, three-seven years I can foresee a situation where the reverse is true for the Yankees and Sox. They will have windows re-tooling that go from two-four years. The time it will take for retirees to leave and bad, giant contracts to expire. Then they buy the best players to fill their holes. (editor's note: I thought about re-wording that, but no I'm gonna leave it)

I think the Yankees might be entering that window right now. They have some rather massive contracts tied to players that are going become increasingly less productive.

The thing is though, they will still be above .500, well above .500 just not the 95+ win juggernauts they were.

It may be uncouth top quote one's self but going back to my point of injuries, luck and systems.

Could this be happening, the Yanks and Sox have both suffered very key injuries and have had some lackluster developments in their minor leagues right now. The Yanks bet the farm of Pineda and that has largely backfired so far. They are praying that Pettite can come and save them, hardly.

The Sox are in worse shape, riddled with significant injuries and a FO in disarray. A trip through Minnesota quelled some of the head-hunting but the second they start playing real competition again and start losing it will come back.

[SilentJames]

Honest question: do you guys think the Blue Jays have a better team than the O's this year? Everyone seems to be quite high on them as an org., but from what I can tell, I'd take the O's MLB talent over the Blue Jays'. That's just a layman's take, hence why I ask you all.

The Jays are a lot like the Orioles in the sense it all comes down to their pitching. They will hit the ball a ton, or at least should, but they will have trouble getting on base, sustaining offense etc etc. A lot like the Orioles.

Their pitching will be what takes them. If their young arms pitch to their potential they will be a force. As it stands, outside of Romero no one has really stepped up. Morrow, Drabek et al have been inconsistent at best.

[wildcard]

I'll take Wieters at C, Davis at 1B, Hardy at SS, Reimold LF, Jones CF. They have the edge at 2B, 3B, DH and RF. The question is how do the starting rotation compare?

IMO their starting pitching to two years behind the O's. They have potential, but has O's fans know all too well, it take time to develop.

[TiredofLosing20]

As it stands, outside of Romero no one has really stepped up. Morrow, Drabek et al have been inconsistent at best.

I don't know that this is true at least for 2012

[wildcard]

Well, no, that's not. The noise in that record far overwhelms the signal. The '11 Orioles played .500 ball against the Tigers and Rays. The '83 Orioles had a losing record against the last-place Indians. The O's 5-1 record against the Jays is essentially meaningless in determining the relative strengths of the two teams.

We can agree on one thing. Their record in head to head games in meaningless to you. All and all having just seen the Jays twice I would say its pretty telling in saying that the O's are better then the Jays at this point. The O's are 7 games above .500. 4 of those can versus the Jays. I think the O's pitching is much more developed this the Jays.

[DrungoHazewood]

We can agree on one thing. Their record in head to head games in meaningless to you. All and all having just seen the Jays twice I would say its pretty telling in saying that the O's are better then the Jays at this point. The O's are 7 games above .500. 4 of those can versus the Jays. I think the O's pitching is much more developed this the Jays.

I didn't expect you to agree. It's well established that you see meaning in small snippets of data.

[Frobby]

We can agree on one thing. Their record in head to head games in meaningless to you. All and all having just seen the Jays twice I would say its pretty telling in saying that the O's are better then the Jays at this point. The O's are 7 games above .500. 4 of those can versus the Jays. I think the O's pitching is much more developed this the Jays.

Count me on Drungo's side -- head to head record in 6 games is not much of an indicator of anything. However, the question of whether we actually will be better than the Blue Jays this year is an interesting one. I think it is still likely that we end up behind the Blue Jays, but a lot depends on how well our pitching holds up.

[wildcard]

I didn't expect you to agree. It's well established that you see meaning in small snippets of data.

And its well established that you don't understand the question. The question posted in post #38 is: Honest question: do you guys think the Blue Jays have a better team than the O's this year?

This year is 25 games old. That is what information there is to apply to the answer. The O's appear to be better the the Jays so far because of the O's pitching. Many of the Jays starters are so young that their don't have much of the previous record in the majors.

[Todd-O]

It is anti-climatic when all the concern over the "buy a championship" approach has two of the highest spenders in baseball sitting on the sidelines watching the World Series along with teams that couldn't break 70 wins.

I think Dan Patrick had a poll recently regarding who's season would you rather have:

The Last Place Orioles with nothing to play for: Play a season ending series that ultimately eliminates a division rival in a final atbat

or

The Redsox: playing a high level of baseball aside from the start and finish but entering Sept 9 games up and sitting pretty. Only to be axed the last game of the season in a walk-off for the O's.

Of course everyone wants to watch a winner. At this point, though, I just want COMPETITIVE BASEBALL. One of the reasons why September was so exciting is that the Orioles showed-up and played night after night. It wouldn't have been nearly as fun if they had stunk the entire month and then magically eeked-out a win against the sox at the end of the season.

[wildcard]

Count me on Drungo's side -- head to head record in 6 games is not much of an indicator of anything. However, the question of whether we actually will be better than the Blue Jays this year is an interesting one. I think it is still likely that we end up behind the Blue Jays, but a lot depends on how well our pitching holds up.

From what I have seen so far I will take the O's pitching over the Jays pitching. That is what will makes the O's better than them this year. The O's pen should be better than the Jays and the Jays 3-5 starters are a very young. It will be hard for them to pitch consistently through the year IMO

[DrungoHazewood]

And its well established that you don't understand the question. The question posted in post #38 is: Honest question: do you guys think the Blue Jays have a better team than the O's this year?

This year is 25 games old. That is what information there is to apply to the answer. The O's appear to be better the the Jays so far because of the O's pitching. Many of the Jays starters are so young that their don't have much of the previous record in the majors.

And it's well established that you don't understand the difference between noise and signal. The results of six games is just barely better than the results of no games at all. If we thought the Jays were an 85-win team at the start of the year, and the O's a 71-win team, then the results of those six games means that now we think the O's are a 72-win team and the Jays an 84. Or thereabouts. And that doesn't even take into account the uncertainty of the original projection, and the uncertainty in the observed performance.

Again, no matter what the outcome six games barely nudges the team true talent meter.

[Roll Tide]

The Jays are a lot like the Orioles in the sense it all comes down to their pitching. They will hit the ball a ton, or at least should, but they will have trouble getting on base, sustaining offense etc etc. A lot like the Orioles.

Their pitching will be what takes them. If their young arms pitch to their potential they will be a force. As it stands, outside of Romero no one has really stepped up. Morrow, Drabek et al have been inconsistent at best.

So far this season Morrow looks pretty impressive 3-1 in 6 starts with a 2.38 Era and a WHIP of .91

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28734/brandon-morrow

[wildcard]

And it's well established that you don't understand the difference between noise and signal. The results of six games is just barely better than the results of no games at all. If we thought the Jays were an 85-win team at the start of the year, and the O's a 71-win team, then the results of those six games means that now we think the O's are a 72-win team and the Jays an 84. Or thereabouts. And that doesn't even take into account the uncertainty of the original projection, and the uncertainty in the observed performance.

Again, no matter what the outcome six games barely nudges the team true talent meter.

Well, maybe unless you watch the games and understand that the O's pen looks superior to the Jays pen and that the Jays 3-5 starters are very young. Much more like the O's were two years ago. The O's went 5-1 versus the Jays for several reasons. Some of those were because of the Jays players and some were because Hammel has improved greatly with a new pitch.

Actually I did not make a prediction on the O's record this year. Too many variables. However, many of them are beginning are turning out positive. So where you had things set in your mind from what your example sounds like, I was waiting to see what the O's do versus their competition. So far, so good.

[SilentJames]

So far this season Morrow looks pretty impressive 3-1 in 6 starts with a 2.38 Era and a WHIP of .91

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28734/brandon-morrow

He has also gotten his wins against the Royals, Mariners and struggling Angels.

Against teams in the AL East he has an ERA of 6.92.

[flashjordnk]

I read a stat this morning, and I can't remember where now...

The Red Sox/Yankees for the first time since the current divisions were created are in last and second to last place after May 1. That made me feel good.