Is Yankee/Red Sox Hegemony coming to an end?

[Tony-OH]

I read a stat this morning, and I can't remember where now...

The Red Sox/Yankees for the first time since the current divisions were created are in last and second to last place after May 1. That made me feel good.

I saw it in the associated press article: "The Red Sox are last in the AL East, with the New York Yankees in fourth. This is the first year since the current division format began in 1994 that the Red Sox and Yankees were in the bottom two spots past May 1, according to STATS LLC."

[Flosman]

And it's well established that you don't understand the difference between noise and signal. The results of six games is just barely better than the results of no games at all. If we thought the Jays were an 85-win team at the start of the year, and the O's a 71-win team, then the results of those six games means that now we think the O's are a 72-win team and the Jays an 84. Or thereabouts. And that doesn't even take into account the uncertainty of the original projection, and the uncertainty in the observed performance.

Again, no matter what the outcome six games barely nudges the team true talent meter.

I guess this is the crux of the questions many are asking ourselves about the O's thus far. Is the "true talent level" better than we thought entering the season. I think the offense is about what most thought it would be, a mid 700 RS with the upside of less than 800 RS that was power driven and needed to get on base at a better rate. Well thus far we are on a pace for 757 RS by hitting a bunch of HRS not getting enough guys on base and striking out more than you would like. I think it is fair to say this is what would have been reasonable expected entering the season.

I think it is not to early to say the true talent level is higher than we thought on the pitching side of things. Is it playoff level? It is much to early to say, even though we have pitched at playoff level thus far, IMO. In games that our opponents have played against teams other than us they have averaged scoring 4.3 runs per game over 169 games. Against us they have averaged scoring 3.43 runs per game over 28 games. We have suppressed our opponents scoring over 20% in the games we have played. Doing this while giving up the most unearned runs in baseball. The pitching has been exceptional across the board even the goats have been good compared to what we are used to. Think of how many pitcher over the past few years we would be happy to plug in Hunter or Greg's number for. Now I don't have the delusion that we will maintain the 561 RA pace that we have put up so far but I also think that we will be at least 150 runs better than the 860 we gave up last year.

I would propose that we can say at this point that the projection of our real talent level was wrong. I think it would be reasonable to say that have a 740-790 offense and a 700-750 defense which is better than a 72 win team.

Now guys don't make me look like an idiot over the next few months, lol.

[OFFNY]

I guess this is the crux of the questions many are asking ourselves about the O's thus far. Is the "true talent level" better than we thought entering the season. I think the offense is about what most thought it would be, a mid 700 RS with the upside of less than 800 RS that was power driven and needed to get on base at a better rate. Well thus far we are on a pace for 757 RS by hitting a bunch of HRS not getting enough guys on base and striking out more than you would like. I think it is fair to say this is what would have been reasonable expected entering the season.

I think it is not to early to say the true talent level is higher than we thought on the pitching side of things. Is it playoff level? It is much to early to say, even though we have pitched at playoff level thus far, IMO. In games that our opponents have played against teams other than us they have averaged scoring 4.3 runs per game over 169 games. Against us they have averaged scoring 3.43 runs per game over 28 games. We have suppressed our opponents scoring over 20% in the games we have played. Doing this while giving up the most unearned runs in baseball. The pitching has been exceptional across the board even the goats have been good compared to what we are used to. Think of how many pitcher over the past few years we would be happy to plug in Hunter or Greg's number for. Now I don't have the delusion that we will maintain the 561 RA pace that we have put up so far but I also think that we will be at least 150 runs better than the 860 we gave up last year.

I would propose that we can say at this point that the projection of our real talent level was wrong. I think it would be reasonable to say that have a 740-790 offense and a 700-750 defense which is better than a 72 win team.

Now guys don't make me look like an idiot over the next few months, lol.

Excellent post. I would just like to point out though that I believe that Hazewood's point that our 6 games against the Blue Jays so far this season in and of themselves alone not necessarily say much is valid. And that is what he was specifically responding to. However ........ winning 5 out of 6 wins against a team that had previously dominated us, PLUS the 2 out of 3 games that we beat the Yankees in their home park (of which we spanked them both times), the sweep of the Red Sox in Fenway, the bullpen having been outstanding, the starting pitching having been commendable, the fact that we have been so good in close games, the strong finish to last season (of which we picked up where we left off to start this season), and the overall record of 19-9 so far this season ....... all of that added together may be a modest indication that this may not be like the same Orioles teams that we have been used to seeing for years now, all of which ultimately proved to have severe enough holes in them which would always have them falling far short of at least 82 wins and a winning season.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think it is not to early to say the true talent level is higher than we thought on the pitching side of things. Is it playoff level? It is much to early to say, even though we have pitched at playoff level thus far, IMO. In games that our opponents have played against teams other than us they have averaged scoring 4.3 runs per game over 169 games. Against us they have averaged scoring 3.43 runs per game over 28 games. We have suppressed our opponents scoring over 20% in the games we have played. Doing this while giving up the most unearned runs in baseball. The pitching has been exceptional across the board even the goats have been good compared to what we are used to. Think of how many pitcher over the past few years we would be happy to plug in Hunter or Greg's number for. Now I don't have the delusion that we will maintain the 561 RA pace that we have put up so far but I also think that we will be at least 150 runs better than the 860 we gave up last year.

Just for reference, the 2007-08 Rays improved 273 runs on the prevention side of the house. That was absolutely mammoth, enough propel a 60-something win team to the playoffs. The O's are currently on pace to improve by 299. That's actually closer to plausible than I thought.

I'd be pretty happy with 150.

[Hallas]

Just for reference, the 2007-08 Rays improved 273 runs on the prevention side of the house. That was absolutely mammoth, enough propel a 60-something win team to the playoffs. The O's are currently on pace to improve by 299. That's actually closer to plausible than I thought.

I'd be pretty happy with 150.

With 150 runs of improvement we'd be almost exactly a .500 team assuming our offense stays the same

Of course, the 2007-Rays were even worse at pitching than the 2011 Orioles.

[Frobby]

This makes three years out of four that either the Yankees or the Red Sox did not make the playoffs, and three years out of four that neither one was in the World Series.

Tampa seems well-positioned to stay in contention for the next several years. Moreover, it appears the Blue Jays are about to take a major step forward, with a young team and a ton of promising prospects.

Meanwhile, we've been waiting for the Yankees stars to get old, and it is finally starting to happen, maybe three years after we'd hoped. Pettitte's gone, Posada's probably out the door. Jeter and ARod are clearly on a pretty steep decline. Tex is good, but not as good as he was before the Yankees signed him, and just maybe he's going to be a guy who isn't that good in his 30's. Rivera continues to defy gravity, but that has to end someday -- doesn't it? I just sense that the pressure to win is getting to this team, and to Girardi.

The Sox, meanwhile, have missed the playoffs two years in a row. Their pitching is in disarray. They've fired their manager. Youkilis can't stay on the field.

Don't get me wrong -- the Yankees and Sox are going to continue to be good teams -- their wallets will see to that. And life isn't necessarily going to get easier for the Orioles considering how the Rays and Jays are positioned. But maybe we are about to enter an era where we don't go into the season with the presumption that the Yankees and Sox will be in the playoffs --where they are just two pretty good teams fighting for spots.

That would be progress.

Bump from last October. Certainly the Red Sox part of "Yankee/Red Sox Hegemony" is at an end, for now. Nobody is going to just assume they are a playoff team in 2013.

Now we need to get to work on the Yankee part of this.

[Moose Milligan]

I love that A-Rod is limping to the finish of his career rather than taking aim at Aaron's record...er, Bonds' record.

[Fan4Life]

Bump from last October. Certainly the Red Sox part of "Yankee/Red Sox Hegemony" is at an end, for now. Nobody is going to just assume they are a playoff team in 2013.

Now we need to get to work on the Yankee part of this.

Tex being out for our upcoming series won't hurt our chances.

[Lucky Jim]

I can't believe that I'm going to Yankee Stadium, on a late-August Friday, to watch the O's in a game with playoff implications.

[murph]

I love that A-Rod is limping to the finish of his career rather than taking aim at Aaron's record...er, Bonds' record.

You had right, for me, the record still stands at 755, the single season at 61.

I think the Yankee's are in trouble, Tex is becoming an injury risk, Arod struggling, CC has had his issues. They have a lot of salary tied in up in a lot of age...I know they have incredible resources, but are they limitless? I hope not.

[Fiver]

You had right, for me, the record still stands at 755, the single season at 61.

I think the Yankee's are in trouble, Tex is becoming an injury risk, Arod struggling, CC has had his issues. They have a lot of salary tied in up in a lot of age...I know they have incredible resources, but are they limitless? I hope not.

Well hopefully the dummy Dodgers don't bail out the Yanks from their misguided spending the way they did the BoSox...still can't believe LA took on those contracts, just to get AGon. Criminy.

As for the Yanks this year, their pitching is just not great, and they are pretty banged up. Certainly not the juggernaut we are used to seeing, by any means. You could argue that the ChiSox have a more dangerous lineup than the Yankees right now, w/ Texeira out. Or maybe even with him in. Still very dangerous though.

BTW heard on a radio program this morning that the Yankees were in trouble w/ Tex out, and 'the Rays and Yanks deadlocked in that division'. Conveniently no mention of the team that actually IS in 2nd place as of today, and plays them this weekend. So tired of that....

I think it was Mad Dog Radio on Sirius that I heard this.

[Crazysilver03]

Apparently the Dodgers asked the Yankees about Tex and Sabathia and were told neither was being moved. LA never had interest in ARod.

[OFFNY]

Is Yankee/Red Sox Hegemony coming to an end?

We may find out this upcoming season, and I hope that the answer is "Yes."

[Pedro Cerrano]

We may find out this upcoming season, and I hope that the answer is "Yes."

Odd bump. It clearly ended last year.

[isestrex]

There's a very distinct possibility that the both the Sox and Yanks finish in the bottom spots of the division. I think then, and only then, will people really see the division differently.

Though everything I've read and heard regarding previews and predictions is that the AL East is a full 5 team division right now and the days of having a top 2 and bottom 3 are gone.