Duquette's most important task: fix the farm system

[TonySoprano]

Peter Gammons is not a fan.

@pgammo Peter Gammons

After Nomar in '94, Duquette gave up on draft. Of his last 8 no. 1's, Reitsma made majors, Cory Jenkins made NFL, no one else could play

[mweb]

Peter Gammons is not a fan.

I wouldn't make that conclusion based on that tweet. Here's one from earlier:

Dan Duquette is a good man, very bright. But he has not been in baseball for a decade. Is he going to be given amateur, pro scouting staff?

So he obviously has a valid question/concern there, but the first line suggests he likes him.

[allstar1579]

Peter Gammons is not a fan.

Being tied in to BOS as much as he is I'm guessing Gammons knows why he was out of baseball for a decade. Would love to pick his brain but I know someone else I can ask...I might have to figure out how to run into him.

Missing on no. 1's happens as long as you are making up with it with other players you don't notice so much. When you aren't hitting with lower picks AND missing with first rounders you are in trouble.

[andrewrickli]

I disagree.

The first step needs to be to put a team on the field that can get back into the playoffs. The Orioles need to end the losing. They've got to change the mentality and perception of this team before they do anything else.

Once they do that, then it will make anything else they try to do that much easier.

You don't have to have a strong farm system to win initially but you do need one to sustain winning. But to sustain winning, the Orioles need to actually win first.

Fans don't come to the Yard to watch "scouting and development" and the O's need their fanbase back to generate the neccessary revenue to rebuild those parts of the organization that do need attention.

Duquette will need to develop a succession plan eventually, but not until we figure out the pieces at the ML level.

Trea, playing advocate here.

You cant just get talent through Free agency. Signing guys to 7 and 8 year deals is risky, very risky.

In order to get quality talent you need to be able to trade for guys, and if you dont have the minor league prospects that can be traded, then all hope is lost.

The Phillies are probably one of the best examples of this. They produce tons of talent, sign a good bit of free agents, and make their fair share of trades. How do they produce talent? Through strong scouting and player development. How do they get free agents? They have the financial means to do so. And finally, how do they get quality players, TOR starters, and MOO bats? By having a surplus of young talent that then become expendable.

If we want to win, and maintain winning, we should model the Phillies IMO.

Trea, your plan is a good one at first glace, but it is VERY risky. It could either go great and we reach the playoffs or go terrible and we are handicapped with LT deals and money.

IMO, I want to win, but more importantly I want to maintain winning. I dont want to have a "one and done" team. I want a team that has a chance to win the division or at least compete within the division, year in and year out.

[waroriole]

We need 22-26 more wins to be a playoff team. To do that through free agency, at roughly $4.5 mm per win, we'd need to increase payroll by $100-120 mm. That simply isn't happening, though you might wish it to be so.

In any event, I am not saying we can't pursue any top free agents. I'm simply prioritizing the most important thing our next GM needs to do. We could get Fielder, Wilson and a third guy and we'd still be only about an 85-87 win team.

To be fair, some of that improvement should come from within. For example, if Matusz just gives us a season equal to what he did in '10, we improve by 5 wins.

[Tank]

I agree what he does with the farm system is most important. Latin America and Japan should be boosted you would think.

[Florida_Osfan]

There is a lot of truth here, but no one will admit it.

It has nothing to do with admitting someone is right. He's saying we need to win, which is about as self-evident to any fan as saying smoking is bad. Of course, we need to win.

No one thinks he's right because his plan is all jacked up. The O's can fix the system and add good pieces at the ML level simultaneously. But just adding FA's and leaving the system to rot is just plain dumb.

[Frobby]

Peter Gammons is not a fan.

@pgammo Peter Gammons

After Nomar in '94, Duquette gave up on draft. Of his last 8 no. 1's, Reitsma made majors, Cory Jenkins made NFL, no one else could play

Not true at all. Adam Everett and Kelly Shoppach were chosen in the first round under Duquette's watch. Youkilis, Sanchez, Eckstein, Duchscher and Pavano were picked up in later rounds. 8 players in 8 years who totaled 5+ rWAR, and if you you add them together they add up to 147 rWAR in 8 years, which is outstanding.

[clapdiddy]

Not true at all. Adam Everett and Kelly Shoppach were chosen in the first round under Duquette's watch. Youkilis, Sanchez, Eckstein, Duchscher and Pavano were picked up in later rounds. 8 players in 8 years who totaled 5+ rWAR, and if you you add them together they add up to 147 rWAR in 8 years, which is outstanding.

Exactly. Who cares where he drafts guys if they perform?

I like his record on the international scene...and I'm sure he's got some friends still in the business in those areas.

[Orange Line]

Not true at all. Adam Everett and Kelly Shoppach were chosen in the first round under Duquette's watch. Youkilis, Sanchez, Eckstein, Duchscher and Pavano were picked up in later rounds. 8 players in 8 years who totaled 5+ rWAR, and if you you add them together they add up to 147 rWAR in 8 years, which is outstanding.

Mr Duquette's drafted players while with BOS who played in MLB with career WAR noted

1994

Nomar Garciaparra (WAR 42.5)

Brian Rose (-0.2)

Brian Barkley (-0.6)

donnie Sadler (-1.5)

Carl Pavano (14.7)

Michael Coleman (-0.7)

David Maurer (signed in 97 by SD)

1995

Steven Lomasney (0.0)

Cole Liniak (-0.7)

Matt Kinney (-0.7)

Paxton Crawford (1.0)

Jim Chamblee (-0.2)

Rontrez Johnson (0.0)

Juan Pena (0.7)

Pat Burrell (signed Phi 1998- 18.8)

1996

Chris Reitsma (-0.2)

Dernell Stentson (0.8)

John BArnes (-0.1)

Justin Duchscherer (9.5)

Rpbert RAmsay (0.6)

Shea Hillebrand (4.5)

Aaron Harang (signed Tx 1999 15.7)

Josh Stewart (-1.0)

Mike Bynum (-2.0)

1997

Travis Harper (0.3)

Angel Santos (-0.5)

Justin Wayne (-1.8)

Matt McLeary (0.1)

David Eckstein (21.3)

Nate Bump ( signed SF 98 -0.7)

Brent Prinz (signed AZ 1998 0.2)

Josh Stewart (signed CWS 1999 -1.0)

Mike Bynum (signed SD 1999 -1.9)

1998

Adam Everett (7.9)

Mike Maroth (4.2)

Jpsh Hancock (0.3)

Mark Texeira (signed TX 2001 38.6)

Lenny Dinardo ( signed NYM 2001 -1.8)

Mike Rabelo ( signed DET 2001-0.7)

John Hattig (0.2)

Ben Kozlowski (signed ATL 2001 0.0)

Dennis Tankersley (-2.2)

1999

Casey Fossum (-0.9)

Rich Rundles (0.2)

Lew Ford (3.2)

Charlie Manning (signed NYY 2001 -0.2)

Marshall McDougall (signed OAK 2000 -0.3)

Mark Kiger (signed OAK 2002)

Jamie Bubela (signed SEA 2000 -0.4)

Dan Giese (0.4)

Chris Mabeus (signed OAK 2001 -0.2)

Brian Buscher (signed SFG 2003 0.6)

2000

Phil Dumatrait (-2.6)

Manny Delcarmen (3.3)

Brian Esposito (-0.1)

Freddy Sanchez (14.0)

Kason Gabbard (1.4)

Dusty Brown (-0.6)

Chris Duffy (signed PIT 2001 1.6)

2001

Kelly Shoppach (6.3)

Matt Chico (signed AZ 2003 0.0)

Justin James (signed TOR 2003 0.0)

Kevin Youkilis (29.5)

Jeremy Brown (signed OAK 2002 0.0)

[TonySoprano]

Not true at all. Adam Everett and Kelly Shoppach were chosen in the first round under Duquette's watch. Youkilis, Sanchez, Eckstein, Duchscher and Pavano were picked up in later rounds. 8 players in 8 years who totaled 5+ rWAR, and if you you add them together they add up to 147 rWAR in 8 years, which is outstanding.

While it's true both made the majors, Everett was traded to Houston and never played a game for Boston. Shoppach was a second round pick.

[Pat Kelly]

Didn't Duquette draft lower (because the Red Sox record was better) and before overslot bonuses were as rampant or a way for teams with bigger pockets to get better picks in later rounds and/or even without high picks?

[TonySoprano]

More from that guy on the $20 bill

Peter Gammons

@pgammo Peter Gammons

The O's organization has decayed from the time Angelos ran off Pat Gillick. Is Duke going to have the contacts to find undervalued talent?

@pgammo Peter Gammons

Dan Duquette is a good man, very bright. But he has not been in baseball for a decade. Is he going to be given amateur, pro scouting staff?

[jiminnj]

I think that emphasizing both winning in the near term and improving the farm system is the right way to go. Where I differ is that to win in the near term expensive free agents are not needed.

1) Fix the pitching without costing draft choices. The O's already have five or with Johnson six starters. To get through a contending season they need more. Go get two Far East starters and trade for a salary dump like Joe Saunders. It will cost little in talent. Realize that your TOR starters by 2013 are probably Britton, Matusz and/or Arrieta. The additional pitchers just give the system depth to get through the season by putting better pitchers in long relief and in at AAA. They are there for the rotation when injuries hit.

2) Realize that between Nick, Jones, Wieters and Hardy their is a young core that are great defensively and very good offensively. Surround them with 1B Reynolds, Remold and Andino who each have strengths but are not balanced young players yet. Hold on to Roberts and Scott under the right contract. Supplement them with Davis and a low cost 3rd baseman like Ian Stewart or Alberto Callaspo. The Angels are ready to cut salary according to their owner. Either will not be that expensive to get. Add a back up catcher like Shoppach or Ramon Castro that allow Wieters to rest more and produce most offensively. The core offensive is already in place, it needs depth.

If the O's can get to .500 by developing who they have and adding depth then they can use next off season to add players to put themselves into contention. This team is well on its way to growing together as a contender if it just has the depth to run through the injuries.

While doing this don't acquire free agents that cost draft choices. Get better scouts and player development people. That is the way to get the flow on young players the team needs.

So its both win now and improve the farm system. I am sure Buck already has a plan something like this to work with Duquette on. He has already talked about going after Far East starters. He has already let Tatum go so he can get a better backup catcher. The farm system management, scouting and draft management are already undergoing changes that Buck is involved with. I think this is close to the plan we will see going forward

I agree with most posted here. Most of the focus needs to be on the future. Build the farm, get better at bringing good players into the system (scouting and drafting) and then get better at developing them. Looking at now and the near future, the team does have a number of good pieces in place. The core offense is in decent shape. We need more, but we have to get them without hurting the future (losing high draft picks because of signing FA). I like the idea of looking at the Asian pitchers, the Cuban OFer is also intriguing. I am not enamored with keeping Scott (want to get younger). If the young pitchers can come through we can be good soon. Contention in 2012 is a pipe dream, 2013 is much more realistic.

[OrioleMagic]

I agree with the OP in a general context, but I think player development trumps stocking the farm simply because of the order of events. What good does a well-stocked farm do you if you can't develop it? Yes, you certainly could trade it, but that's where we get back into a general context. I would love to see someone really shine at implementing an organizational system or methodology that shows the results that the Tampa farm system does. We really need both.