Updated: Orioles acquire Taylor Teagarden

[Rene88]

26 pages for a backup catcher? That is sad and accurate commentary on the state of our team.

[Sports Guy]

26 pages for a backup catcher? That is sad and accurate commentary on the state of our team.

If people would stop making posts about how many pages this thread has lasted, it may only be 18 pages!

[The Rick]

Right.

Henry's ceiling, in terms of his overall value, is limited.

By that I mean, even if he becomes a dynamite set up guy, he will still only be a guy that is what JJ was to us this past season.

Now, that has a lot of value to a team, especially at no money but in terms of looking at it from a WAR perspective, its not that high.

Your starting pitchers and everyday players carry much more value in that regards, so those guys are ranked ahead of these types of players.

I would say this though...I like the chances of Henry being a ML contributor more than probably at least half of the guys ranked ahead of him.

For example, I think we can all agree that upside for Xavier Avery is higher than Henry...but I think there is a better chance of Henry being a contributor on a ML team compared to Avery.

I would agree, but wouldn't Henry's upside with us be limited in the sense that we could have some SP prospects that end up taking that spot over him? Think JJ, Berken, Maybe Arrieta, etc. Isn't there enough fringe SP depth in our system that a MR prospect like Henry really doesn't have an overwhelming chance of becoming a BP force for us?

[Sports Guy]

I would agree, but wouldn't Henry's upside with us be limited in the sense that we could have some SP prospects that end up taking that spot over him? Think JJ, Berken, Maybe Arrieta, etc. Isn't there enough fringe SP depth in our system that a MR prospect like Henry really doesn't have an overwhelming chance of becoming a BP force for us?

Sure, that's possible.

But that doesn't mean you dump him for a mediocre back up C, even if he does have good upside.

[LookinUp]

And I have explained why it doesn't matter that he isn't in the top 20. MR/set up prospects don't usually get any higher than 15 or so and most of them are in that 18-25 range. The role player type guys, guys who aren't starters or everyday players(or have the possibility of being one) are always down on the lists.

His rating does matter because it reflects his upside. As another poster said, there are fringe starter types that will likely turn into relievers with higher upside than Henry. There are flawed guys like Schrader who really only profile as relievers, but have more upside to where if it clicks, they'll be more valuable than Henry ever will.

You mention JJ as a guy who turned into a dynamite reliever, but I haven't seen one report that describes Henry in anything near that light. I think his upside is somewhere below dynamic setup man, and that's if he stays healthy. The chances of him becoming better than an ok middle reliever hinge on a significant uptick in stuff and refinement of secondaries, and the probabilities of that are very small.

The probabilities of Teagarden being a good back-up catcher are very high. If you want to talk about development of a player, I'd wager Teagarden has a higher probability of getting healthy and turning into a fringe starting catcher than Henry does of becoming anything more than a AAAA player. In that regard, I'd bet a mathematician projecting relative value would think Teagarden's range is almost certainly higher than Henry's.

[Sports Guy]

Well, the Angels just trade Mathis for this guy(at least as of right now, it appears to be 1 for 1):

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502166

[DrungoHazewood]

Well, the Angels just trade Mathis for this guy(at least as of right now, it appears to be 1 for 1):

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502166

Seems we're zeroing in on the value of established so-so backup catchers: minor league pitchers with low-to-moderate probability of major league careers.

[LookinUp]

Well, the Angels just trade Mathis for this guy(at least as of right now, it appears to be 1 for 1):

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502166

Looks like he profiles favorably to Troy Patton. Starter, pretty good K rate. Lefty. Seems like a guy who has a good probability of turning into a pretty good middle reliever. Note, those stats are PCL stats.

[Edit: Mathis cost about $1.3 million more than Teagarden last year.]

[Sports Guy]

Looks like he profiles favorably to Troy Patton. Starter, pretty good K rate. Lefty. Seems like a guy who has a good probability of turning into a pretty good middle reliever. Note, those stats are PCL stats.

[Edit: Mathis cost about $1.3 million more than Teagarden last year.]

Also note his age and how poor he has been in the majors in a SSS.

[LookinUp]

Also note his age and how poor he has been in the majors in a SSS.

So he profiles favorably to Henry too?

In three years, Henry would equal the # of innings this guy threw last year.

[Sports Guy]

So he profiles favorably to Henry too?

In three years, Henry would equal the # of innings this guy threw last year.

So what? Henry is a reliever, not a starter.

He is also 5 years younger, a GB pitcher and has shown better control and a better ability to keep the ball in the yard.

[LookinUp]

So what? Henry is a reliever, not a starter.

He is also 5 years younger, a GB pitcher and has shown better control and a better ability to keep the ball in the yard.

Almost all of his ML experience is as a starter, which means he's lasted as a starter until he got to the majors. Before he got to the PCL, his ERAs were in the 2.00 range. I'm not saying he's a great prospect, but it would seem like he's a decent lefty out of the pen type of guy. Sort of like Henry, who is younger, but is also 3 levels and a few hundred innings behind.

[Capn Vivi]

I want Duquette to use all the resources he has at his disposal. Some may disagree that Teagarden is a worthy target, but Duquette traded a young prospect for a player he chose specifically (or Buck, and to be honest, I don't have a problem with Buck putting in requests for certain players, I doubt he twisted Duquette's arm).

Pitching, catching and defense, right guys? At least Duquette's bringing talent into this organization. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect some talent to leave the organization at one point.

[PaulFolk]

Well, the Angels just trade Mathis for this guy(at least as of right now, it appears to be 1 for 1):

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502166

This makes me like the Teagarden trade even more. The Blue Jays traded a guy who's (IMO) more valuable than Henry, for a catcher who makes Taylor Teagarden look like Babe Ruth. Jeff Mathis is one of the worst hitters in major league history. In 1,360 career plate appearances, his line is .194/.257/.301 for a whopping OPS of .557. That's unspeakably bad, and no amount of defensive value can overcome it. His career rWAR is minus 2.5. And he's making more money than Teagarden.

I'm glad the O's got Teagarden if their alternatives were the likes of Mathis.

[Sports Guy]

This makes me like the Teagarden trade even more. The Blue Jays traded a guy who's (IMO) more valuable than Henry, for a catcher who makes Taylor Teagarden look like Babe Ruth. Jeff Mathis is one of the worst hitters in major league history. In 1,360 career plate appearances, his line is .194/.257/.301 for a whopping OPS of .557. That's unspeakably bad, and no amount of defensive value can overcome it. His career rWAR is minus 2.5. And he's making more money than Teagarden.

I'm glad the O's got Teagarden if their alternatives were the likes of Mathis.

Both trades are poor but I would rather have Henry and Mathis than Jaku(or some other AAAA starter/reliever) and Teagarden.