Smells to me like Connolly thinks Reynolds goes...

[SrMeowMeow]

Well, that's my issue with WAR. It tells me that McGehee and Reynolds are worth the same at .3 and that's not the case.

I won't totally agree with his season being totally mediocre. Yes, the on base percentage is troubling but it's not like it's batting average driven. He's got plate patience and a certain amount of discipline. He lead the team in walks and this is a team that has been horrific at drawing walks. I'd imagine if he was on a better team he'd probably be 3rd or 4th in walks, but 75 isn't a number to really sneeze at.

I freely admit that there a lot of holes in his game, but we can do something about the defense by putting him at first. He has had two seasons of a .349 on base percentage and he hasn't reached his peak yet so it's possible that he could get that high again, though I wouldn't bank on it. As long as he matches his OBP from last year, I'm fine with him. It's not great, but it's not Tony Bautista awful.

He brings a dimension to our lineup that we haven't really had since Albert Belle, unless you really want to count Miguel Tejada.

I dunno, I can see your argument. But I'm not so hot to trade our leading home run hitter and leading walk guy. Plus, he's fun to watch and in my book that counts for something.

No, WAR tells you that Mark Reynolds was 0.6 WAR worse than Casey McGehee last season.

This is the exact application of WAR: to take different players and figure out a way to compare their value. Otherwise, you're reduced to saying "well, I like Reynolds' power and walks, don't like his batting average, strikeouts and defense, so in conclusion: I don't know but I do/don't like him." It lets you deal in specifics instead of generalities.

I'm not saying Reynolds has no upside. And attacking WAR on the UZR front is legitimate. But offensive statistics are rock-solid and the verdict is in: Mark Reynolds was about 16% better than the average hitter in 2011. For his career, that figure is 10%. UZR has him being historically bad on defense last year. For his career, a poor but survivable one win below average. If you don't like UZR, plug in your back-of-the-napkin estimate for his defense. I would take this calculation over anything else available right now; that's why I use it all the time.

[clapdiddy]

Personally, I'd make Reynolds our DH, let Davis play 1B and find a third baseman.

[xKHx]

Flaherty hit 280 with 19 homers 31 doubles and 88 rbis between AA-AAA. He would be a good option at third.

[REDMAN]

Is

No, WAR tells you that Mark Reynolds was 0.6 WAR worse than Casey McGehee last season.

This is the exact application of WAR: to take different players and figure out a way to compare their value. Otherwise, you're reduced to saying "well, I like Reynolds' power and walks, don't like his batting average, strikeouts and defense, so in conclusion: I don't know but I do/don't like him." It lets you deal in specifics instead of generalities.

I'm not saying Reynolds has no upside. And attacking WAR on the UZR front is legitimate. But offensive statistics are rock-solid and the verdict is in: Mark Reynolds was about 16% better than the average hitter in 2011. For his career, that figure is 10%. UZR has him being historically bad on defense last year. For his career, a poor but survivable one win below average. If you don't like UZR, plug in your back-of-the-napkin estimate for his defense. I would take this calculation over anything else available right now; that's why I use it all the time.

I saw Reynolds in all his games last year and McGehee in probably 10,and the bat speed of Reynolds is far superior to McGehee.Reynolds problem is contact,i cannot think of another player who misses pitches by as much as him,maybe Gorman Thomas.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Is

I saw Reynolds in all his games last year and McGehee in probably 10,and the bat speed of Reynolds is far superior to McGehee.Reynolds problem is contact,i cannot think of another player who misses pitches by as much as him,maybe Gorman Thomas.

So what? He takes a lot of pitches, and when he connects he hits them a LONG way. Those are just as important as basic contact; more important in some ways, since getting on-base in any form and hitting for power are the two best predictors for offensive performance.

And do I need to bring up AGAIN that his defense in a half-season at third last year was twice as bad by basically any measure as any full season of his career? And yet we assume that the other years were the outliers?

[SrMeowMeow]

Is

I saw Reynolds in all his games last year and McGehee in probably 10,and the bat speed of Reynolds is far superior to McGehee.Reynolds problem is contact,i cannot think of another player who misses pitches by as much as him,maybe Gorman Thomas.

Again, McGehee and Reynolds are very different players. But on a certain level, it doesn't matter how either of them achieve the offense they produce. They are what they hit.

So what? He takes a lot of pitches, and when he connects he hits them a LONG way. Those are just as important as basic contact; more important in some ways, since getting on-base in any form and hitting for power are the two best predictors for offensive performance.

And do I need to bring up AGAIN that his defense in a half-season at third last year was twice as bad by basically any measure as any full season of his career? And yet we assume that the other years were the outliers?

I don't know if this is directed partially at me, but I agree that Reynolds' career UZR/150 (-10) is a better predictor of his true talent than his 2011 UZR.

Also, strikeouts are a lot like other outs, but Reynolds was certainly hurt in 2011 by striking out in 30% of his plate appearances.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I don't know if this is directed partially at me, but I agree that Reynolds' career UZR/150 (-10) is a better predictor of his true talent than his 2011 UZR.

It's directed at a lot of people, because whether you look at advanced stats, or "traditional" stats, or really even the eye test (assuming you saw him play previously) he was basically twice as bad in half the time. That means something, but I tend to think of it as an outlier compared to the other years when he was somewhere around below-average instead of historically awful.

I have zero problem with starting the season with Reynolds at third base.

[ccbird]

I'm not sure why anyone wants to trade Reynolds. For years this board has moaned about how we don't have a true masher, someone with 35-40 home run power. We finally get that guy and now everyone wants to trade him?

I understand his defense sucks at third but at first he was quite respectable. Stick him at first until we get a stud first baseman and then stick Reynolds at DH....and you have a capable backup.

Rosterbation drivin me nuts!

For one, he's got an 11 mil option for '13 that the O's are unlikely to pick up. IMO, as a neg defensive player, he'll have to have an .850+ OPS to be an 11 mil dollar DH. So he's very possibly entering his FA year. I'm not moving him for peanuts but I'd be shopping him this offseason. Having a similar type player in Davis also makes it easier to potentially move him.

[REDMAN]

It's directed at a lot of people, because whether you look at advanced stats, or "traditional" stats, or really even the eye test (assuming you saw him play previously) he was basically twice as bad in half the time. That means something, but I tend to think of it as an outlier compared to the other years when he was somewhere around below-average instead of historically awful.

I have zero problem with starting the season with Reynolds at third base.

I have no problem with him starting at third,he has the arm and range,he just plays like he is on speed.These are the same people who bashed Andino last year,and how did that work out.It comes down to talent and the use of it.Reynolds has the talent and if i was the orioles i would make him one of the core players for the future.

[Bradysburns]

Reynolds is a terrible, terrible baseball player who is grossly overpaid. Buck doesn't like him. If someone wants him I am sure he is gone. He strikes out way too much, he isn't a clutch hitter, he has low obp. his average is terrible, and he can't field.

You just cursed the beloved Reynolds - prepare to be roundly mocked.

[Bradysburns]

Well, that's my issue with WAR. It tells me that McGehee and Reynolds are worth the same at .3 and that's not the case.

I won't totally agree with his season being totally mediocre. Yes, the on base percentage is troubling but it's not like it's batting average driven. He's got plate patience and a certain amount of discipline. He lead the team in walks and this is a team that has been horrific at drawing walks. I'd imagine if he was on a better team he'd probably be 3rd or 4th in walks, but 75 isn't a number to really sneeze at.

I freely admit that there a lot of holes in his game, but we can do something about the defense by putting him at first. He has had two seasons of a .349 on base percentage and he hasn't reached his peak yet so it's possible that he could get that high again, though I wouldn't bank on it. As long as he matches his OBP from last year, I'm fine with him. It's not great, but it's not Tony Bautista awful.

He brings a dimension to our lineup that we haven't really had since Albert Belle, unless you really want to count Miguel Tejada.

I dunno, I can see your argument. But I'm not so hot to trade our leading home run hitter and leading walk guy. Plus, he's fun to watch and in my book that counts for something.

I think that's the beginning and end of the argument to me. As someone who really likes smooth, consistent defense (Bordick is still one of my all-time favorite Orioles for Pete's sake), I don't ever want to see Reynolds at third again. He definitely has some skills, and a good arm, and he's a gamer - he didn't look terrible out there on a consistent basis. But... very flawed. At first, I found him less offensive.

That said, considering that he's not a fundamentally sound player - but a volatile mix of power, low contact rate and inconsistent defense - I would certainly trade him if you could get something of value. To me, that would be a solid AAA hitter, or a solid MOR pitcher. He's not cheap - at all. And I think that salary is probably wasted given the makeup of this team.

[REDMAN]

Reynolds is a terrible, terrible baseball player who is grossly overpaid. Buck doesn't like him. If someone wants him I am sure he is gone. He strikes out way too much, he isn't a clutch hitter, he has low obp. his average is terrible, and he can't field.

Nobody who makes it to the show is terrible and people like you are just crazy to think the way you do!

[REDMAN]

I think that's the beginning and end of the argument to me. As someone who really likes smooth, consistent defense (Bordick is still one of my all-time favorite Orioles for Pete's sake), I don't ever want to see Reynolds at third again. He definitely has some skills, and a good arm, and he's a gamer - he didn't look terrible out there on a consistent basis. But... very flawed. At first, I found him less offensive.

That said, considering that he's not a fundamentally sound player - but a volatile mix of power, low contact rate and inconsistent defense - I would certainly trade him if you could get something of value. To me, that would be a solid AAA hitter, or a solid MOR pitcher. He's not cheap - at all. And I think that salary is probably wasted given the makeup of this team.

Reynolds is a guess hiter and next year i look for 40 bombs,he has only played in the AL for a year.

[SrMeowMeow]

Nobody who makes it to the show is terrible and people like you are just crazy to think the way you do!

Even the worst utility player or journeyman reliever is an elite athlete and hitter. But we're judging major leaguers relative to other major leaguers.

[RavNMadMan]

Compare him to first basemen on winning baseball teams and get back to me.

He's a maybe 1B on a consistent losing team......where is the comparison?