Cespedes to Oakland

[GoldGlove21]

I'm pretty certain Reynolds puts up a higher OPS than Cespedes this year. Do you disagree with that?

I would agree with that, but Cespedes is going to make about what Reynolds will make this season while playing in the outfield. I am not sold on Reynolds being a much better fielder than what we got to see in 2011, but I imagine that it could just be a down year if you look at his stats. If the choice is 1/8M (Include Buyout) or 2/$19M for Reynolds or 4/$36M for Cespedes than give me Cespedes and the upside. I hope that Reynolds rakes this season and the Orioles turn that into a decent return, because I am not in a hurry to pay him $11M in 2012. A team that deals for Reynolds would at least have him for more than one season if they picked up the option. In 5 seasons Mark Reynolds has been worth a total of 9.4 WAR with an OPS of .814. He has hit 150 homeruns in 5 seasons!

In the same 5 year span Nick Swisher has been worth 16.3 WAR per fangraphs. He has hit 127 homeruns since 2007 and his OPS numbers are pretty close to Reynolds. Swisher doesn't steal bases either. The fact is that Swisher has been worth almost 7 WAR more than Reynolds over the last 5 years and I think that I know why. I don't have the time to do it, but I would love to see Reynolds WAR if he were a DH for the last 5 seasons verses a 3B/DH/1B. Good organizations would find a way to maximize a guys strengths and the Orioles are not good enough on paper to exploit what their guys do really well IMO. What would Reynolds do if he were the DH in Boston or New York?

[scOtt]

I would agree with that, but Cespedes is going to make about what Reynolds will make this season while playing in the outfield. I am not sold on Reynolds being a much better fielder than what we got to see in 2011, but I imagine that it could just be a down year if you look at his stats. If the choice is 1/8M (Include Buyout) or 2/$19M for Reynolds or 4/$36M for Cespedes than give me Cespedes and the upside. I hope that Reynolds rakes this season and the Orioles turn that into a decent return, because I am not in a hurry to pay him $11M in 2012. A team that deals for Reynolds would at least have him for more than one season if they picked up the option. In 5 seasons Mark Reynolds has been worth a total of 9.4 WAR with an OPS of .814. He has hit 150 homeruns in 5 seasons!

In the same 5 year span Nick Swisher has been worth 16.3 WAR per fangraphs. He has hit 127 homeruns since 2007 and his OPS numbers are pretty close to Reynolds. Swisher doesn't steal bases either. The fact is that Swisher has been worth almost 7 WAR more than Reynolds over the last 5 years and I think that I know why. I don't have the time to do it, but I would love to see Reynolds WAR if he were a DH for the last 5 seasons verses a 3B/DH/1B. Good organizations would find a way to maximize a guys strengths and the Orioles are not good enough on paper to exploit what their guys do really well IMO. What would Reynolds do if he were the DH in Boston or New York?

THIS year... and then next cumulative... I'll take Reynolds. Even butchering 3B.

[DrungoHazewood]

I would agree with that, but Cespedes is going to make about what Reynolds will make this season while playing in the outfield. I am not sold on Reynolds being a much better fielder than what we got to see in 2011, but I imagine that it could just be a down year if you look at his stats. If the choice is 1/8M (Include Buyout) or 2/$19M for Reynolds or 4/$36M for Cespedes than give me Cespedes and the upside. I hope that Reynolds rakes this season and the Orioles turn that into a decent return, because I am not in a hurry to pay him $11M in 2012. A team that deals for Reynolds would at least have him for more than one season if they picked up the option. In 5 seasons Mark Reynolds has been worth a total of 9.4 WAR with an OPS of .814. He has hit 150 homeruns in 5 seasons!

In the same 5 year span Nick Swisher has been worth 16.3 WAR per fangraphs. He has hit 127 homeruns since 2007 and his OPS numbers are pretty close to Reynolds. Swisher doesn't steal bases either. The fact is that Swisher has been worth almost 7 WAR more than Reynolds over the last 5 years and I think that I know why. I don't have the time to do it, but I would love to see Reynolds WAR if he were a DH for the last 5 seasons verses a 3B/DH/1B. Good organizations would find a way to maximize a guys strengths and the Orioles are not good enough on paper to exploit what their guys do really well IMO. What would Reynolds do if he were the DH in Boston or New York?

With the exception of last year Reynolds has not been bad enough defensively (really not even close) to make up for the 20 run difference in positional scarcity between 3B and DH. I think Fangraphs' position values have good reasoning behind them, and you have to be a very bad fielder at any position to be a more valuable DH.

[maudibjr]

I'm Ok with the O's not signing Cespedes. That is big money for a big question mark. He may be great, but that is a very big commitment.

At least we are not the Marlins with a large Cuban population that they will have to explain their non-signing too.

I would like to see any money set aside for Cespedes spent on younger talent like Soler.

[Frobby]

Jim Callis said yesterday that he suspects Cespedes would be ranked "just outside the top 10" when BA comes out with its list next week.

[sevastras]

Sure would have looked good in left field for us. This is looking like a bargain, but we still have a PLATOON that will put up huge numbers this year.:rofl: There were a few of us that really wanted Cespedes, wish we would have got in on that. Now this year we dreamed of Hamilton and now we are trying to trade for someone and no one will take what we offer. Luis Martinez will save the day for us now.

[Frobby]

Sure would have looked good in left field for us. This is looking like a bargain, but we still have a PLATOON that will put up huge numbers this year.:rofl: There were a few of us that really wanted Cespedes, wish we would have got in on that. Now this year we dreamed of Hamilton and now we are trying to trade for someone and no one will take what we offer. Luis Martinez will save the day for us now.

This seems like a pretty random thread to dredge up. But on a related note, if we can ever get Henry Urrutia into the United States, maybe he'll be in the LF mix at some point. Freddy Ferreira tagged him as the next Latin Amercian signee to make it to the majors.

[sevastras]

This seems like a pretty random thread to dredge up. But on a related note, if we can ever get Henry Urrutia into the United States, maybe he'll be in the LF mix at some point. Freddy Ferreira tagged him as the next Latin Amercian signee to make it to the majors.

It was just a random thought. That is why I brought up this thread instead of creating a new one. I was thinking about our off season thus far and are hole in left. I thought to myself, "Self, Cespedes would have been nice to have last year and for the next couple of years. There would be one less hole to think about."

[Frobby]

It was just a random thought. That is why I brought up this thread instead of creating a new one. I was thinking about our off season thus far and are hole in left. I thought to myself, "Self, Cespedes would have been nice to have last year and for the next couple of years. There would be one less hole to think about."

We surely had a hole in LF for more than half of last year, but if Reimold and McLouth stay relatively healthy, I don't think we'll really have a hole there. That said, Cespedes has turned into one heck of a player.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Sure would have looked good in left field for us. This is looking like a bargain, but we still have a PLATOON that will put up huge numbers this year.:rofl: There were a few of us that really wanted Cespedes, wish we would have got in on that. Now this year we dreamed of Hamilton and now we are trying to trade for someone and no one will take what we offer. Luis Martinez will save the day for us now.

I'm perfectly fine with the fact that we let Cespedes go to Oakland.

You can't try to pass hindsight off as wisdom. No one knew what Cespedes was going to turn out to be- he had plenty of tools but no track record playing professional ball in the US. Oakland took a major gamble on him, and they got lucky. If he hadn't panned out, 4/$36 million would be a laughably bad deal. Think of some of the deals that Japanese players have gotten from US teams- Kei Igawa, Dice-K, Fukudome, etc.

I bet those teams would like to have those contracts back.

[luismatos4prez]

There were a few of us that really wanted Cespedes

Did you? I don't see it in the thread. Can't say "I told you so" if you only thought it.

[sevastras]

I'm perfectly fine with the fact that we let Cespedes go to Oakland.

You can't try to pass hindsight off as wisdom. No one knew what Cespedes was going to turn out to be- he had plenty of tools but no track record playing professional ball in the US. Oakland took a major gamble on him, and they got lucky. If he hadn't panned out, 4/$36 million would be a laughably bad deal. Think of some of the deals that Japanese players have gotten from US teams- Kei Igawa, Dice-K, Fukudome, etc.

I bet those teams would like to have those contracts back.

It isnt hindsight. I wanted to get him. He was incredibly athletic and it was a gamble that I would have taken. Yes the 4/36 was stretching it, 6/40 was about what I wanted to be at. My point was he is very athletic and it did pan out and just wish he would have been the one that we spent some money on last year. Then again, I wanted Prince.

[sevastras]

Did you? I don't see it in the thread. Can't say "I told you so" if you only thought it.

If you will notice, I didnt start posting until June of this year, though I have read for many years. It wasnt a I told you so post.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

It isnt hindsight. I wanted to get him. He was incredibly athletic and it was a gamble that I would have taken. Yes the 4/36 was stretching it, 6/40 was about what I wanted to be at. My point was he is very athletic and it did pan out and just wish he would have been the one that we spent some money on last year. Then again, I wanted Prince.

Saying that it's "looking like a bargain" is. At the time, it looked like a desperate gamble. I remember reading a lot of stuff at the time saying that Beane had gone crazy.

[DrungoHazewood]

Saying that it's "looking like a bargain" is. At the time, it looked like a desperate gamble. I remember reading a lot of stuff at the time saying that Beane had gone crazy.

I think desperate gamble is way too strong. $32M is paying for 6 wins or thereabouts. It's 1/3 of one year of a mid-range payroll. The Jays paid 50% more than that for BJ Ryan. It was a reasonable investment, although I can see the position of people who thought it was unwise for a very resource-constrained team to commit that much money to a player who could have tanked.

My position always was that the O's have to get surplus value to win at their payroll level, and one way to do that is to hit on some guys like Cespedes. You're paying for less than two wins a year, and if he ends up being worth 3, 4, 5, you're golden. If not, well... you're going to have to roll the dice on somebody to get that surplus value.