The Yadier Molina extension

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm intrigued by the Molina extension. From what I understand it's a 5/75 extension for his age 30-34 seasons. So far in his career he's been worth about 14 rWAR, and 19 fWAR. This deal is worth about 15 wins, assuming $5M per win. Or about 3 WAR per year.

Over the past three years he's been worth 3.9 fWAR and 3.0 rWAR.

So... they're paying him like he's going to very slowly decline over the next few years, or like they think he's more valuable than WAR indicates. I tend to think they value his defense more than either of the WAR calculations do. Like maybe they're starting him off at about 5 WAR, declining at half a win a year.

As for historical comps, there are about 20 catchers in history who've provided 15+ rWAR over ages 30-34, including Jorge Posada and Gene Tenace over 20. But once you limit the pool to more defensively-oriented catchers (OPS+ of 105 or less) the best WAR performance at those ages is John Roseboro's 12.5.

If Molina hits to his career numbers (OPS+ of 88) and still is worth 15 wins over this extension he'll have had the best rWAR total for a mediocre hitting catcher at those ages in history. I think this extension, had it been with the Orioles, would be very controversial here. I'll go out on a limb and say at least one poster would call it "piss poor".

[clapdiddy]

That contract is piss poor.

OK...I'm the one!

[Can_of_corn]

I think they overpaid, in years if not dollars. They rewarded him with this contract after a career best year with the bat and maybe his worst year with the glove.

[Frobby]

It seems very high relative to what Molina could have earned on the free agent market. Heck, Pudge Rodriguez never had a long-term contract that was worth more than $10 mm/yr, and he was a far more valuable player than Molina.

[Sports Guy]

Its a poor contract no matter who signs it.

Difference between St Louis and Baltimore is it seems to always work for the Cardinals.

[Sports Guy]

Officially signed a 5/75 deal.

[byrdz]

Difference between (Insert Team Here) and Baltimore is it seems to always work for the (Insert Team Here).

This..