O's making trade (O's acquire Thome)

[Lucky Jim]

But you seemed so nice in person

I really am. And generous, too! I just grew up in a family that argued around the dinner table for fun. I'd like to think most of the bickering and posturing is water off a duck's back.

[McLovin]

I would not have traded a low basement player for Thome.

[scOtt]

Is it an apology you want, Jim? You should've asked in the first-place.

Dear GoGoPower,

Sorry for coming on so strong. Please don't take offense; my rude response has less to do with you and more to do with my disdain for the way 1984 is so gratuitously quoted and cited by quasi-intellectuals and people-who-haven't-even-read-the-whole-thing alike, and for my belief that George Orwell is about the least deserving of the minds commonly extolled in American/British society. Sound political thinker, pretty bad writer. See? I'm going off on a tangent about George Orwell-- please excuse my transference.

This is a possibility that can't be ruled out, and is arguably more likely than him reaching his "ceiling." Why is it so hard to see why someone like me would be fine with this trade, then?

I should just hush but... bd do you know Jim is a lawyer? He's prolly read LOTS o books. Just sayin'

[weams]

I don't necessarily disagree with this - though I think they're inextricably intertwined.

I believe that this trade was made because Dan Duquette is absolutely committed to winning this season. And Lino was so far away that he meant nothing to him. Dan feels that he is replaceable, and yet had enough value to interest the Phillies. As was stated, the Orioles were not the only team in on Thome.

[Barnaby Graves]

I don't necessarily disagree with this - though I think they're inextricably intertwined.

What "they" are you referring to, the a) and b) I listed? Because yeah, it seems like Duquette is caught between a rock and a hard place here. This seems like a classic team for selling high in a year with an expanded playoff structure and generally increased parity. We have so many great, cheap bullpen pieces and we're beating our xWL by 6 games which is the most in the majors (and a great bullpen is probably the reason for that differential). Hammel is also having a career year and would probably be worth quite a nice haul if traded.

The flip side of selling is we keep making these kinds of trades and probably have to sell low on at least 2 or 3 young starters to get a really nice deadline piece. I'm not concerned about losing Lino and Simon. But I'd be pretty raged if Arrieta was traded for a rental.

And of course at the same time, I haven't watched winning baseball in my entire life as an Orioles fan since 2000.

[weams]

I really am. And generous, too! I just grew up in a family that argued around the dinner table for fun. I'd like to think most of the bickering and posturing is water off a duck's back.

I assumed as much.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I disagree. (About correctness. I think I grasp it, but I'll defer to others.)

I mean, it's faintly logical in a reductio ad absurdum way, but that's about it. He's essentially stated that any player without a high-floor isn't high-ceiling because of the failure rate. But the failure rate is enormous for all prospects.

Lino started this season as a guy with a high ceiling and as an 18 year old in low-A. He turned 19 in May. His prospect status may take a hit this (or may not), but he's pretty much high ceiling for the near future as long as he's not Ed Rogers.*

*If he is Ed Rogers, then good on the O's for unloading him for value before the issue shows up.

Saying the failure rate is great for all prospects is pretty flawed logic. Obviously there are differences and people can and should make educated decisions about ceiling/projectibaility or whatever you want to call it. I don't pretend to know as much about prospects as you, RZNJ or some of the others that are upset about this trade. That said, I'm pretty comfortable DD knows what he's doing. I've outlined the reasons I am fine with this trade in detail already.

In this case it sounds to me like you've got a guy with raw talent and poor baseball skills. Bd's analysis is correct and I don't think it's really any different than what I (and others) have said in the past. Businesses don't generally hold onto personnel with high celings and low probabilty of success. While baseball is a different kind of business, it is still a business and retaining employees (or players) has a cost. My assumption is that DD and company have looked at this player and made an asessment. Part of that assessment is that he's replaceable and the risk is minimal. For all of those stating or implying in this thread (and others) that DD is an idiot, incompetent or doesn't know what he's doing, I disagree. I'm very comfortable that he has the big picture based on a multitude of things he has done since taking over.

Will it happen, that one day this type of deal/strategy will come back and bite him on a prospect ....sure. I'm guessing that he will come out on the plus end of these deals when you look back on it. I have no issue with the strategy under our current circumstances. I see a benefit to helping the team out in the short term (again looking at this as a business) and that doesn't mean if we don't make the playoffs this year, that this deal is a failure.

Like I said, if you or anyone else values Lino and doesn't like the trade, I certainly respect your opinion.

[scOtt]

I believe that this trade was made because Dan Duquette is absolutely committed to winning this season. And Lino was so far away that he meant nothing to him. Dan feels that he is replaceable, and yet had enough value to interest the Phillies. As was stated, the Orioles were not the only team in on Thome.

Agree. This trade isn't perfect but it does show effort on DD's part. Shake things up.

[Lucky Jim]

I believe that this trade was made because Dan Duquette is absolutely committed to winning this season. And Lino was so far away that he meant nothing to him. Dan feels that he is replaceable, and yet had enough value to interest the Phillies. As was stated, the Orioles were not the only team in on Thome.

I get that feeling, too - but I haven't liked the way that he's valued prospects so far. Even if they're mildly over-valued on the market. But, yeah. Good luck with that, Dan. I'm sure Thome's .8 WAR will put us over the edge.

What "they" are you referring to, the a) and b) I listed? Because yeah, it seems like Duquette is caught between a rock and a hard place here. This seems like a classic team for selling high in a year with an expanded playoff structure and generally increased parity. We have so many great, cheap bullpen pieces and we're beating our xWL by 6 games which is the most in the majors (and a great bullpen is probably the reason for that differential). Hammel is also having a career year and would probably be worth quite a nice haul if traded.

The flip side of selling is we keep making these kinds of trades and probably have to sell low on at least 2 or 3 young starters to get a really nice deadline piece. I'm not concerned about losing Lino and Simon. But I'd be pretty raged if Arrieta was traded for a rental.

And of course at the same time, I haven't watched winning baseball in my entire life as an Orioles fan since 2000.

See above. I took the original post to say, essentially, that a high-ceiling alone was too much to give up for Thome. Not too much to give up, period. I'd swing high-ceiling/low-probability guys in any number of packages. They're quite useful that way. But for a half-a-season of Jim Thome? Nope. Anything more than reliever-arms and organizational guys would be too much.

[Flash- bd]

I should just hush but... bd do you know Jim is a lawyer? He's prolly read LOTS o books. Just sayin'

This thread is starting to get pretty entertaining with all the things going on, so I hope I don't kill the momentum when I say: that apology really was directed at GoGoPower. So I'm not sure you understood correctly, unless, maybe, you're just egging Lucky Jim on a bit, in which case I say: carry on :thumbsup1:

[Moose Milligan]

Pretty happy with Thome, if only because we get some good Dugout material here. I caught a little bit of his interview the other day and he seems like a positive guy to have around, he wants younger players to come ask questions.

Not worried about Lino...he's got a long way to go.

Oh, and Lucky Jim, I believe the word is actually "couth."

[Lucky Jim]

In this case it sounds to me like you've got a guy with raw talent and poor baseball skills. Bd's analysis is correct and I don't think it's really any different than what I (and others) have said in the past. Businesses don't generally hold onto personnel with high celings and low probabilty of success. While baseball is a different kind of business, it is still a business and retaining employees (or players) has a cost. My assumption is that DD and company have looked at this player and made an asessment. Part of that assessment is that he's replaceable and the risk is minimal. For all of those stating or implying in this thread (and others) that DD is an idiot, incompetent or doesn't know what he's doing, I disagree. I'm very comfortable that he has the big picture based on a multitude of things he has done since taking over.

I don't think this is an accurate take on Lino. He's not a raw "athlete." He's a pretty good defensive catcher for his age - with pop, playing in an (pretty) advanced league (again for his age).

On a conceptual level, I disagree wholly with your analogy to "businesses" - a lot would, in fact, invest in people w/ huge upside and low-probability of success if they had (i) a limited pool of talent due to a collusively restricted employment market; (ii) the ability to keep those individuals in extended training and instruction at a minimal cost; (iii) and the possibility of enormous pay-offs if they get it right.

The reductio ad absurdum criticism is apt. Which doesn't mean it doesn't have some appeal. But at what point over 5% does a ceiling become "legitimate"? The fact is, if Lino develops into nothing more than a good catch-and-throw guy, there's a decent chance that he provides some value. Eli Whiteside caught 187 MLB games between 2009 and 2011. The fact that Lino has pop is pure upside.

I've offered my reasons for why I don't love the trade (though I'm not sweating it, exactly). But what I would like is for the parameters of the trade to be clear, and that we not minimize the cost ex-post. I feel like that's what many are doing here. I agree that DD isn't an idiot. My father once said of an elected politician (he voted against), "well, at least he lacks vision." My issue is that Duquette has a vision, and it's kind of terrifying to me (even though the costs so far are small).

I perfectly respect that the Org is owed some deference, as they much more information at their disposal than we Bickering Bickersons.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I don't even know what you're talking about. Which is just so typical of me. I guess that's why I said "generally".

To be clear, did I call you a poorly read show-off who is manipulative, misleading and the equivalent of a dystopian government? Regardless, I'm not sure the board needs a Trea-ian referendum on my cooth, value, or (agruable) intelligence.

Pretty sure you called me worse than that. I don't have my lunatic lawyer dictionary handy.

[Lucky Jim]

Pretty happy with Thome, if only because we get some good Dugout material here. I caught a little bit of his interview the other day and he seems like a positive guy to have around, he wants younger players to come ask questions.

Not worried about Lino...he's got a long way to go.

Oh, and Lucky Jim, I believe the word is actually "couth."

I believe you're correct. S'what happens when one gets long in the touth.

[Moose Milligan]

Pretty sure you called me worse than that. I don't have my lunatic lawyer dictionary handy.

Just talk derogatory about Zooey Deschanel, his head'll explode.