TT: The Orioles are in a freefall, is there a way out?

[Moose Milligan]

110 ERA+? For comparisons sake Guthrie was at 107 his time in Baltimore.

I'd have to say at least a 107+, then. If he goes back to AAA, that's an automatic win for me

[Flash- bd]

Alright, I'll bet you a 6 pack of your favorite beer that Tillman doesn't become a quality starter. We need to define what a quality starter is, first.

Haha, deal. Quality starter? I'd say ERA below 4.50/4.60 over at least 10 starts or ERA+ of 90/95+.

[Flash- bd]

Okay--maybe I set the bar a little low. For comparison sake Henderson Alvarez has a 4.36 ERA and a ERA+ of 97, Phil Hughes 4.33 ERA+97. Amazingly Wei-yin Chen's 3.95 ERA is only an ERA+ of 105.

[Lucky Jim]

Okay--maybe I set the bar a little low. For comparison sake Henderson Alvarez has a 4.36 ERA and a ERA+ of 97, Phil Hughes 4.33 ERA+97. Amazingly Wei-yin Chen's 3.95 ERA is only an ERA+ of 105.

I'd say somewhere around 100 ERA+ is probably appropriate.

[Moose Milligan]

Okay--maybe I set the bar a little low. For comparison sake Henderson Alvarez has a 4.36 ERA and a ERA+ of 97, Phil Hughes 4.33 ERA+97. Amazingly Wei-yin Chen's 3.95 ERA is only an ERA+ of 105.

ERA of below 4.25 and an ERA+ of 105?

[Flash- bd]

ERA+ +/- 2.5?

Out of context, but it's funny our perception of Jeremy Guthrie. He seems the epitome of dependable, average starter but he was really only that in his final year here (ERA+97). His first two years he was #2-like ERA+ 125, 122. He came back with a sub-average ERA+90 in his third year, followed by a good 108 ERA+ (though he had his lowest career WHIP that year and his 2nd best K/BB). Not exactly consistent, and never really average.

[Flash- bd]

ERA of below 4.25 and an ERA+ of 105?

Considering right now a ~4.35 ERA in the AL East is an ERA+97 I'd say anywhere from 95-105 qualifies him as quality starter. I don't think anyone is going to be hesitating to pencil Tillman into our rotation next year if he puts up a 4.35 ERA for the season. But considering--as Lucky Jim I think is wryly pointing out--100 is supposed to be the very definition of quality/average starter I'm willing to accept that as the over/under.

[Lucky Jim]

ERA+ +/- 2.5?

Out of context, but it's funny our perception of Jeremy Guthrie. He seems the epitome of dependable, average starter but he was really only that in his final year here (ERA+97). His first two years he was #2-like ERA+ 125, 122. He came back with a sub-average ERA+90 in his third year, followed by a good 108 ERA+ (though he had his lowest career WHIP that year and his 2nd best K/BB). Not exactly consistent, and never really average.

I think of him as an average starter with variable results because his FIP was in a pretty narrow band of 4.4-4.5 in four of his five years here.

[Moose Milligan]

Considering right now a ~4.35 ERA in the AL East is an ERA+97 I'd say anywhere from 95-105 qualifies him as quality starter. I don't think anyone is going to be hesitating to pencil Tillman into our rotation next year if he puts up a 4.35 ERA for the season. But considering--as Lucky Jim I think is wryly pointing out--100 is supposed to be the very definition of quality/average starter I'm willing to accept that as the over/under.

Alright, so ERA+ of 100? and no bets on regular ERA? Ok, I'm down with that considering Chris Tillman's highest ERA+ is 85 and that was three years ago. How much faith in Peterson do you have?

[Can_of_corn]

Alright, so ERA+ of 100? and no bets on regular ERA? Ok, I'm down with that considering Chris Tillman's highest ERA+ is 85 and that was three years ago. How much faith in Peterson do you have?

Nice of you to say quality but accept league average.

[Moose Milligan]

Nice of you to say quality but accept league average.

I'd accept league average from Chris Tillman considering I don't think he can produce anywhere near that.

Of course if we're going by "quality" we could just talk about a certain percentage of his starts being quality ones. But I like my chances with the ERA+ bet.

[Flash- bd]

Nice of you to say quality but accept league average.

Eh--depends on your definition. Alvarez and Hughes at 97 are 23rd and 24th in the AL in starters ERA (which seems to me slightly above average...14 teams in the AL, 5 spots per team, you do the math). James Shields has a 4.18 ERA and his ERA+ is 88. Seems to me the ERA+ metrics are a little odd (does it not take into account quality of opponent?). Perhaps we'd be better off doing a simple ERA based criteria.

[Moose Milligan]

I didn't mean to hijack Tony's thread, but I agree with pretty much everything he wrote. This 2nd half is shaping up ugly.

[Lucky Jim]

Nice of you to say quality but accept league average.

I'd guess that league-average for a starter is different from a 100 ERA+.

[bluedog]

This.

There is no realistic chance of salvaging the season for a playoff run. Its time to get some guys some playing time to see what you have for the future and hang onto what little assets we have.

Of course there are chances of salvaging the season for a playoff run. A couple of hitters get hot, a few starters string together a nice winning streak and we'll continue to remain in contention. You could have just as easily of made this same assertion at the beginning of the season about being in contention at the halfway point and it would have been just as wrong. Is it likely we stay in contention? Maybe not - but there is always a chance, particularly when you are within 1/2 a game of a playoff spot this deep into the season.