Do you want to take a shot at Josh Hamilton?

[mrbig1]

Too much baggage.

[Roll Tide]

Hell no. Too old, too expensive, too injured.

A 31 year old baseball player is not old.

[El Gordo]

Hamilton's physical age and health don't bother me. I don't see any evidence of early decline. It's his mental age and mental health that worry me.

[isestrex]

This just isn't true. Hamilton had a putrid July, an average June, and played out of his mind the rest of the season. He's easily our best hitter on day one if we sign him.

For reference, Hamilton and Jones' month/month splits.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=hamiljo03&year=2012&t=b

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=jonesad01&year=2012&t=b

Ok, 3 months.

Here are his oWar numbers month by month:

12.4 March/April

13.7 May

-0.3 June

-5.1 July

7.3 August

3.5 Sept/Oct

3.5 is average... -0.3 is very bad and -5.1 is putrid. He did have a better August than I thought though...

My point was, most people look at his overall numbers and assume he had a great season. But really that season was about as big a roller coaster as it gets. As many others in this thread have said, he's just too inconsistent and not worth the risk.

[WNY Orioles Fan]

New member here but a longtime Oriole fan. I voted yes. Like someone else stated, as soon as he signs, he'll be our best hitter. One thing no one seems to be bringing up is that we had only two guys hit over 280. Just two. Hamilton would make our lineup FEARED. And lets be honest, can we really expect to win as many games the way we did this year? I don't know about the rest of you, but I'd definetely like to see a few more comfortable wins.

[tilgaham]

Ok, 3 months.

Here are his oWar numbers month by month:

12.4 March/April

13.7 May

-0.3 June

-5.1 July

7.3 August

3.5 Sept/Oct

3.5 is average... -0.3 is very bad and -5.1 is putrid. He did have a better August than I thought though...

My point was, most people look at his overall numbers and assume he had a great season. But really that season was about as big a roller coaster as it gets. As many others in this thread have said, he's just too inconsistent and not worth the risk.

I don't know where you're getting your stats from dude. Is that his full season oWAR pace for that month?

If you look at Hamilton's splits, his BABIP for July was an insane .175. He had dry eyes from caffeine, and a poor stretch run. Being streaky is not necessarily a bad thing. As much as Hamilton helped lose in July and late September, he was a huge part of the massive division lead the Rangers had early on in the summer. I'll take a streaky home run king over Nate McClouth any day of the week.

You're entitled to your opinion of course, but I just wanted to break my thoughts down.

He was a 3.2WAR player by baseball reference and a 4.4WAR player by Fangraphs

If we assume he can keep up a reasonably declining rate of offensive production, and a move to DH in his year 4/5 seasons (from LF), I think a 4 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.5 progression is reasonable. That's 17 wins over 5 years.

At a fairly conservative rate of $5.5MM/win, we arrive at 93.5 million dollars. 5 years/93.5MM. That's a fair deal, and I'd throw in a premium for inflation and coming to Baltimore over New York or LA and bump it to 100MM. Let's go win the damn pennant.

[joedogg9999]

You guys can say whatever you want about this guy but it wont take away is 43 hrs and 120some rbis. Hes a guy that can win a triple crown and a guy that gives adam jones the protection in the lineup that could propel him to a .300 35hr 90-100 rbi guy. For the right deal you do it in a heartbeat. This lineup needs a guy that pitchers legitimatly fear. With him we suddenly have a lineup that rivals the yankees.

[DrungoHazewood]

Hamilton's risk profile is so high that I'd have to discount any contract offer to the point where someone else would almost certainly outbid me.

Did you know that Hamilton's career has been worth about 2 wins more than Nick Markakis'? And Hamilton is three years older. Greinke and Hamilton have some big picture similarities: they'll probably be asking for contracts heavily weighted on their peaks, while their peaks seem pretty unlikely to repeat.

[DrungoHazewood]

He was a 3.2WAR player by baseball reference and a 4.4WAR player by Fangraphs

If we assume he can keep up a reasonably declining rate of offensive production, and a move to DH in his year 4/5 seasons (from LF), I think a 4 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.5 progression is reasonable. That's 17 wins over 5 years.

At a fairly conservative rate of $5.5MM/win, we arrive at 93.5 million dollars. 5 years/93.5MM. That's a fair deal, and I'd throw in a premium for inflation and coming to Baltimore over New York or LA and bump it to 100MM. Let's go win the damn pennant.

Is that really a reasonable assumption? You have him worth as much or more in each of his age 32, 33, and 34 seasons than he was worth in either of his age 30 or 31.

I think this illustrates the issue here quite well. I think it's difficult to give Hamilton anything like a $100M deal, and I think he'll probably be asking for more than that.

I guess one possibility might be he'll go out and get a 1/18 kind of deal and try to prove he's redeemed. I'd be ok with that.

[weams]

I don't want the guy who the Giants will not sell playoff shirts with his name either. Even though he did get them WS home filed advantage.

[mcinww0]

I don't know where you're getting your stats from dude. Is that his full season oWAR pace for that month?

If you look at Hamilton's splits, his BABIP for July was an insane .175. He had dry eyes from caffeine, and a poor stretch run. Being streaky is not necessarily a bad thing. As much as Hamilton helped lose in July and late September, he was a huge part of the massive division lead the Rangers had early on in the summer. I'll take a streaky home run king over Nate McClouth any day of the week.

You're entitled to your opinion of course, but I just wanted to break my thoughts down.

He was a 3.2WAR player by baseball reference and a 4.4WAR player by Fangraphs

If we assume he can keep up a reasonably declining rate of offensive production, and a move to DH in his year 4/5 seasons (from LF), I think a 4 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.5 progression is reasonable. That's 17 wins over 5 years.

At a fairly conservative rate of $5.5MM/win, we arrive at 93.5 million dollars. 5 years/93.5MM. That's a fair deal, and I'd throw in a premium for inflation and coming to Baltimore over New York or LA and bump it to 100MM. Let's go win the damn pennant.

I think he may actually maintain 3-4 WAR seasons through age 36 just because his career got a late start and there shouldn't be too much wear on his body. His struggles have generally been non-baseball related and hopefully he's worked through those issues. He could also produce a monster season or two where he's consistent for the whole year. Unlike someone a Reynolds or Davis, Hamilton's actually done it twice before.

I'd even go as high as 5 years/$110 million but absolutely no higher. I think Hamilton would do well in Camden Yards and Baltimore's relatively low-pressure environment relative to Texas, NY or Boston.

[mcinww0]

Hamilton's risk profile is so high that I'd have to discount any contract offer to the point where someone else would almost certainly outbid me.

Did you know that Hamilton's career has been worth about 2 wins more than Nick Markakis'? And Hamilton is three years older. Greinke and Hamilton have some big picture similarities: they'll probably be asking for contracts heavily weighted on their peaks, while their peaks seem pretty unlikely to repeat.

Hamilton's played 313 fewer games than Markakis, meaning he's been worth over 50% more WAR per game than Markakis. I think that's oversimplified but it shows my point. Hamilton's problems stem more from addiction, which I believe he has figured out, while Greinke's come from a mental issue which is far more complicated and difficult to treat.

[dmlfan928]

No. He does not fit into the way this team plays. This is a "next man up" team, and I don't view him as that kind of player.

[Can_of_corn]

Hamilton's played 313 fewer games than Markakis, meaning he's been worth over 50% more WAR per game than Markakis. I think that's oversimplified but it shows my point. Hamilton's problems stem more from addiction, which I believe he has figured out, while Greinke's come from a mental issue which is far more complicated and difficult to treat.

He has relapsed twice since he has been with Texas despite the safety net they have in place for him.

I am unsure of where your confidence comes from.

[DrungoHazewood]

Hamilton's played 313 fewer games than Markakis, meaning he's been worth over 50% more WAR per game than Markakis. I think that's oversimplified but it shows my point. Hamilton's problems stem more from addiction, which I believe he has figured out, while Greinke's come from a mental issue which is far more complicated and difficult to treat.

I think you have to assume that he'll play in no more games/year than he has so far. Even without addicition issues, a typical player plays much less in their 30s than their 20s. Much of a player's decline isn't so much slipping ability as it is declining availability over 162 games.