Josh Hamilton market update - 3 years $60-75 million

[DrinkinWithFermi]

And as I said, we don't know how his injuries affected his performence.

And as I told you like 5 times in another thread, that makes ZERO difference in evaluating whether or not the offense will be better in 2013 without him than it was in 2012 with him.

He was awful for most of 2012. That fact is static. The reason has no bearing on the issue.

[waroriole]

And as I said, we don't know how his injuries affected his performence.

How many games did he miss due to injury?

[Frobby]

I still don't how they underperformed. Wieters was around his avgerages. Hardy wasn't that far off. Jones had a career year, as did Davis. I'll give you Nick and Manny. DH will probably produce worse this year, and 2B will still be a hole. Expecting a lot from McLouth and Reimold isn't a good idea imo.

The main reason the offense underperformed was that the offense missed 695 games due to injury and we gave tons of at bats to guys who weren't on the opening day roster. I had a chart of the projections made by all the various systems (ZipS, PECOTA, etc.) and the team broke down this way:

Guys who beat the projections:

Reimold .960 (but injured most of the year)

Markakis .834 (but missed 2.5 months)

Jones .839

Davis .828

Guys who about met projections:

Betemit .744

Guys who underperformed projections:

Wieters .764

Reynolds .763

Johnson .714

Hardy .671

Flaherty .617

Andino .588

Paulino .567

Teagarden .542

Chavez .515

Guys who weren't projected to play for the Orioles (min. 50 PA):

McLouth .777

Pearce .758

Thome .744

Machado .739

Avery .645

Quintanilla .638

Ford .609

Tolleson .537

Roberts .415

[MemorialStadKid]

So... what shall we do about the holes in the lineup?

We still need a real bat and protection for AJ and Wieters.

MSK

[DrinkinWithFermi]

So... what shall we do about the holes in the lineup?

We still need a real bat and protection for AJ and Wieters.

MSK

WHAT HOLES?

We're pretty much set at C, 1B, SS, 3B, RF, CF, LF, and DH. 2B, I'll give you, but B-Rob is getting one more chance and I can live with that.

[Crazysilver03]

So... what shall we do about the holes in the lineup?

We still need a real bat and protection for AJ and Wieters.

MSK

You got that right. We can't have Weiters' wife giving birth in September again.

[MemorialStadKid]

You got that right. We can't have Weiters' wife giving birth in September again.

:wedge:

That will be so much funnier when we finish in last place again.

MSK

[Bradysburns]

Name three top free agents that signed top free agent contracts that was a key piece to their team winning the world series that is not on the Yankees or Red Sox.

Haha. Haven't the Yankees or Red Sox won like 19 of the last 20 world series?

[Bradysburns]

The three who got a way, IMO, were 1) Beltre when he signed for 1 year with the Sox, 2) Cespedes who I'd have gone higher for and 3) Sano - ditto.

All three fit well within the budget, IMO, and all three would look good in this org right now. Beltre really makes me mad because the market was clearly depressed due to the economy and, IMO, that's exactly when the O's should have pounced with a typical middle of the road offer. They could have had him, IMO.

In addition to Chen, hopefully one of the ones who didn't get away but turns out to be a real player is Urritra (or however you spell his name).

I lobbied on the board to sign Beltre - but Angelos apparently didn't follow through with my sage advice. At the time, the arguments were all the same: He's a big risk, has holes in his game, is more of a defensive specialist with some offensive streakiness, etc. I think most of us liked Cespedes, and I can't claim to have had an opinion on Sano, but I'll take your word for it that he was good. I've heard good things but haven't dug into him at all.

Just to be clear, I'm not bagging on DD. I've been a pretty staunch supporter from day one. My only issue is... well... one last time. For so many years, the warehouse has implied that we'll be players for SELECT top-tier FAs when we were a player or two away from competing. Well, we're there. So like... show me a couple good FA puzzle pieces, please. My realistic wish list at the beginning was Keppinger for 2B (went to the ChiSox I believe) and Swisher (I know, I hate his smug face too... but he's a gamer dammit). Keep Davis to platoon, mix and match. Swisher would have been a great pickup, IMO, as much as it pains me to imagine him an Oriole.

But hey, we got some offseason left, and probably one of the most creative GMs in baseball. My hopes are in tact that we'll do something interesting before long.

[Bradysburns]

This is flat out wrong. Please take your straw man home.

It's an opinion. It's subjective. You might disagree, but to say it's flat-out wrong... c'mon. I've seen a ton of "hey, just shut up and trust DD... he hasn't steered us wrong yet."

[Dark Helmet]

And as I told you like 5 times in another thread, that makes ZERO difference in evaluating whether or not the offense will be better in 2013 without him than it was in 2012 with him.

He was awful for most of 2012. That fact is static. The reason has no bearing on the issue.

And I keep telling you, when Reynolds is hitting 35 HR next year and getting on base at a ,335 clip, and our platoon is has 15 HR and if were lucky a similar OPS, everyone will be complaining we need more pop. Im gonna go on record and say now that neither Jones or Davis will hit 30 HR next year. Jones was once again swinging at sliders a foot outside by seasons end, and if not for a hot start, wouldnt have hit over 30 last year. Davis has the same dicipline issues as Jones. I think both will be in the mid 20's HR wise, but not get to 30.

[Bradysburns]

I read it as an accusation about me. If not, that's fine.

Here's an outside of the box idea...

Trade Markakis for Olt + Grimm.

Flip Grimm + Tillman + Matusz to Arizona for Upton.

Dude - not at all. Sorry if that's how it came across. I was just commenting in general. I didn't have any specific poster in mind. I think I need to make it a policy of mine to not comment on "meta" issues... People have a right to love DD, or hate him, or whatever. I hereby will attempt to not criticize anyone as a person. I may take issue with a specific claim or post, but not a person.

[Dark Helmet]

How many games did he miss due to injury?

29 I think. But as I said, who really knows how long his obligue was bothering him before and after the DL stint. I know from experience, oblique injuries usually linger for awhile.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

And I keep telling you, when Reynolds is hitting 35 HR next year and getting on base at a ,335 clip, and our platoon is has 15 HR and if were lucky a similar OPS, everyone will be complaining we need more pop. Im gonna go on record and say now that neither Jones or Davis will hit 30 HR next year. Jones was once again swinging at sliders a foot outside by seasons end, and if not for a hot start, wouldnt have hit over 30 last year. Davis has the same dicipline issues as Jones. I think both will be in the mid 20's HR wise, but not get to 30.

You're changing the finish line. You said that the 2013 offense will be worse than the 2012 offense because we let Reynolds go, which- assuming career average production for Reynolds, Betemit, Valencia, and Pearce in their respective roles- simply is not the case.

[Dark Helmet]

You're changing the finish line. You said that the 2013 offense will be worse than the 2012 offense because we let Reynolds go, which- assuming career average production for Reynolds, Betemit, Valencia, and Pearce in their respective roles- simply is not the case.

I never once said letting Reynolds go will be the determining factor on 2013. I said I think he will be missed more than youre giving him credit for, added to I dont expect much improvement from Wieters, Hardy, and McLouth. And I expect a decline from Jones and Davis. Youre free to your opinion that the O's offense will be fine, and I respect that. I just dont agree. We can argue this all we want but neither is gonna sawy the other way. Agree to disagree. Fair enough?