Withholding Judgment

[Sanfran327]

Chen needs a putout pitch. He left some wins on the table. He had a rough patch there in the 2nd half. August was a terrible month for him. Chen can get ahead 0-2 but he doesn't put guys away. This year theres footage on him.

As for Gonzalez...I'm not giving him the "high reward" because if he stinks this year or isn't the same then it brings out the questions many had about a guy who saw 5 innings above AA ball before 2012's "magical" season.

Uh... they were both rookies.

[Tx Oriole]

How do you get a MOO bat without it being a major move. I personally will judge the off season by his ability to get done that he himself set out to do. If we end up using the much talked about platoon or add a mediocre/ project guy like Smoak then I think this winter was a failure.

So you judge before games are played. So if DD doesn't get the

MOO then that is a failure? Maybe he tried but other GM's wanted

Bundy. You don't trade him. I will just wait to see what happens

this coming season before I judge the FO.

[Frobby]

So you judge before games are played. So if DD doesn't get the

MOO then that is a failure? Maybe he tried but other GM's wanted

Bundy. You don't trade him. I will just wait to see what happens

this coming season before I judge the FO.

This is where I come out, as well. So far, I think this has been a medicore offseason. But (1) it's not over yet, and (2) Duquette has earned the right to be judged in 2013 on end results, not mere impressions of whether his moves were good or not. A lot of his moves last winter worked out surprisingly well.

[wildcard]

This is where I come out, as well. So far, I think this has been a medicore offseason. But (1) it's not over yet, and (2) Duquette has earned the right to be judged in 2013 on end results, not mere impressions of whether his moves were good or not. A lot of his moves last winter worked out surprisingly well.

What happened to DD must get someone equal to or better than Reynolds? That is where I am.

[weams]

DD must get production equal to or better than Reynolds?

This is where I am.

[24fps]

So you judge before games are played. So if DD doesn't get the

MOO then that is a failure? Maybe he tried but other GM's wanted

Bundy. You don't trade him. I will just wait to see what happens

this coming season before I judge the FO.

Sure we judge before the games are played. It's a baseball message board during the offseason, there would be little reason for its existence if we didn't.

Imagine the situation if we all took the obvious position that we need to wait and see. There would be a couple thousand posts acknowledging the wisdom of that course, most of them pledging loyalty to the faith. There would be a spirited trade in 2012 season nostalgia and there would be considerably more interest in the Hangout Club and Hottie Draft threads, both areas well worth visiting anyway if you ask me.

Now imagine what would be lost with that choice. We can start with those incredibly well researched posts usually in support of a position strongly held and often passionately argued. Follow the debate to the point of exhaustion and often you will be rewarded with a nuanced understanding of the game and the team that you didn't have before. That distillation process results in something that can't be acquired otherwise and is well worth the price IMO.

Caveat Emptor. A wait and see attitude can be nothing more than a voluntary albeit selective lobotomy. Of course we would also be spared the spectacle of flash lynch mobs forming around posters who have strongly held contrarian positions. Now that I wouldn't miss one bit.

[scOtt]

What happened to DD must get someone equal to or better than Reynolds? That is where I am.

I think Davis is better than Reynolds. Half a platoon partner at DH and the "pair" are better than last year's Reynolds/Davis team.

[wildcard]

I think Davis is better than Reynolds. Half a platoon partner at DH and the "pair" are better than last year's Reynolds/Davis team.

Davis doesn't count as an upgrade. He was here last year.

[Frobby]

What happened to DD must get someone equal to or better than Reynolds? That is where I am.

I will be unhappy if he doesn't. But, I won't be too vocal about it until I see how the season plays out, because I think it is just possible that Duquette and Showalter know more about baseball than I do.

[Frobby]

Some would argue a platoon with Betemit at DH could equal Reynolds' production. Not sure if I agree with that, but just for the sake of argument.

Depends who the RH member of the pair is. And we shouldn't forget that Betemit was already on the team last year and had 280 PA vs. RHP. So it's not like every PA he gets this year replaces one from Reynolds. If Betemit is healthy he might get 120-160 more PA vs. RHP than he saw last year. He had 96 PA vs. LHP last year, and if Buck is able to run a good platoon, you can hope to cut that number in half. If you can get Betemit to have 90% of his PA vs. RHP (which is a reasonable goal), he could give you an OPS in the .810-.815 range.

[wildcard]

I will be unhappy if he doesn't. But, I won't be too vocal about it until I see how the season plays out, because I think it is just possible that Duquette and Showalter know more about baseball than I do.

Nay, not possible.

[wildcard]

Depends who the RH member of the pair is. And we shouldn't forget that Betemit was already on the team last year and had 280 PA vs. RHP. So it's not like every PA he gets this year replaces one from Reynolds. If Betemit is healthy he might get 120-160 more PA vs. RHP than he saw last year. He had 96 PA vs. LHP last year, and if Buck is able to run a good platoon, you can hope to cut that number in half. If you can get Betemit to have 90% of his PA vs. RHP (which is a reasonable goal), he could give you an OPS in the .810-.815 range.

I agree with this. Last year with Reynolds at 1B, Davis was a DH that could fill in at the outfield corners. With Davis locked in at first and Betemit as LH DH that depth is gone. Betemit is not good with the glove and the O's need to add someone who can hit as well as Reynolds that can help out in the field.

[hoosiers]

Agree with withholding judgement though I am skeptical that there is a Chen or MGon type of free agent out there for us. Absent a bold trade, I think we are more likely to see our FO take on a rebound project (Mourneau, Smoak) or two.

Also need to realize on one hand that winning 93 games one year (when 70-75 were expected, and most statisticians believe 80-85 were deserved) does not necessarily mean bold moves (like massive annual commitments to 30+ year old players or giving up the farm in prospects and/ordraft picks for a productive young player) must be made to keep pace with the top of the division. This was considered a multi-year rebuild at this time last year - both on the major league roster and in re-building the farm. IMO, we are way ahead of schedule on both and am fairly pleased that this offseason we have not sacrificed one objective for the other (yet).

On the other hand, our ownership is making $ hand over fist between the Os and MASN and should be pushing our front office to be more aggressive.

End of day, however, even without any more moves, IMO we have the "talent" to compete for a playoff spot including many guys under 27 capable of large improvements in OPS (50 points) including Jones, Wieters, Machado, 2B and potential to rebound/return to health from others (Markakis, Reimold, Hardy). A resurgent year as a starting pitcher from either Britton, Jake or Matusz in the form of 20+ starts with an ERA under 4.5 would have powerful implications on our ability to compete.

[OsLuvrInKy]

January 10, 2012: Wei-Yin Chen signed as an amateur free agent with the Baltimore Orioles

January 24, 2012: Wilson Betemit signed as a free agent with the Baltimore Orioles

February 6, 2012: Colorado Rockies traded Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom to the Baltimore Orioles for Jeremy Guthrie

February 10, 2012: Luis Ayala signed as a free agent with the Baltimore Orioles

March 4, 2012: Miguel Gonzalez signed as a free agent with the Baltimore Orioles

The offseason isn't over.

I understand there being some angst over the lack of movement this season, but it seems that many debaters on both sides (either defending the FO for not making rash decisions or criticizing the FO for being too passive) are speaking as if the final decision has been made and we're going forward into the new season with our current roster. Well even if you're upset about missed opportunities, the winter is barely half over. We have not run out of avenues to improve our team.

The players above, all acquired after the new year, contributed 11.1 rWAR to the 2012 Orioles.

Looking at those dates shows me DD is not afraid to do a deal at anytime. Hows this for a scenario.... 2nd-3rd week of ST. 1 of a teams starters goes down with a season ending elbow injury. The pitchers we called the Calvary plus others are showing impressive stuff. We can easily afford now to trade a SP or 2. Anyone else here thinks DD takes advantage of said team.

[Spy Fox]

Sure we judge before the games are played. It's a baseball message board during the offseason, there would be little reason for its existence if we didn't.

Imagine the situation if we all took the obvious position that we need to wait and see. There would be a couple thousand posts acknowledging the wisdom of that course, most of them pledging loyalty to the faith. There would be a spirited trade in 2012 season nostalgia and there would be considerably more interest in the Hangout Club and Hottie Draft threads, both areas well worth visiting anyway if you ask me.

Now imagine what would be lost with that choice. We can start with those incredibly well researched posts usually in support of a position strongly held and often passionately argued. Follow the debate to the point of exhaustion and often you will be rewarded with a nuanced understanding of the game and the team that you didn't have before. That distillation process results in something that can't be acquired otherwise and is well worth the price IMO.

Caveat Emptor. A wait and see attitude can be nothing more than a voluntary albeit selective lobotomy. Of course we would also be spared the spectacle of flash lynch mobs forming around posters who have strongly held contrarian positions. Now that I wouldn't miss one bit.

I think I agree with your points here. I'll be clear that I'm not suggesting a lack of discussion or debate. Certainly a lot of the value of the Hangout would be lost if everyone just said "Well, I'll wait to see how the season goes to decide what were the good decisions and what were the bad ones."

My main point was just to counter those who are acting as if we can already assign a thumbs-up or thumbs-down for the 2013 roster despite the fact that many of last year's biggest moves hadn't even been thought of or rumored at this point in the winter.