Throwing in the towel on the offseason

[Number5]

I've been thinking about starting a new thread on this topic, but the fact that we let Mark Reynolds walk while getting nothing in return AND failed to replace him with an upgrade has been eating away at me all off-season.

He played great defense at 1B, was very popular in the clubhouse and could have easily been added to the power names in the lineup listed earlier in this thread. If DD had a better "middle of the order bat" to replace him with, I wouldn't be so upset that he is gone. But, for some reason, he just didn't like the guy, and this is one of the few times where I can't bring myself to trust Duquette's judgement.

Good teams don't start platoon players like Wilson Betemit and Danny Valencia as their designated hitters. That's a downgrade on offense, and Davis taking over the 1B job is a downgrade on defense.

If someone can post some reasons why this team is better with Reynolds off of it, please feel free to attempt to cheer me up.

Well, let's just see. OK, Oakland won the West. Gomes/ Smith had pretty much a straight platoon at DH. Check. Texas had Michael Young start the most games at DH with 71, and a team share of the remaining 92 games. Check. New York won the East with no real starter at DH and a team share involving ARod, Ibanez, Chavez, Swisher, Nix, Nunez, Pearce, Teixeira, McGehee, and even Suzuki. Check. Baltimore had Chris Davis start 60 games and a team share that included Nick Johnson, Betemit, Thome, Reynolds, Ford, and Markakis for the remaining 102 games. Check. Detroit had Delmon Young start 116 games, making them the only AL playoff team that had a "regular" DH that started at least 100 games, and even they had other players start at DH in 46 games. There are catchers that start more games than Young did at DH. Among "good" teams that missed the playoffs, the White Sox had Dunn with 93, Tampa had Scott with 78, and the Angels had Morales with 92 as the guys starting the most games at DH -- none having a 100+ game DH. There is no DH in the NL, of course, and it seems that only 1 AL team, Kansas City, had a "regular DH starting at least 120 games -- and they were certainly not a "good" team. From the data, it would seem that "good" teams do, indeed, platoon at DH. It seems we have a myth busted.

I think you are also overlooking the fact that we started 2012 with Reynolds at 3B. I'd say that Manny is a serious upgrade defensively from where we were a year ago.

I don't like that we let Reynolds go without really replacing him, but let's not make more out of it than really is there. Frankly if Nick and Betemit weren't injured last season, I'm not sure that Reynolds would have been starting as much at 1B. In other words, looking at our 25-man roster, we have replaced Reynolds with Manny (as compared to the season-opening roster) and replaced him with Markakis and/or Betemit (as compared to the season-ending roster).

[VeveJones007]

There are just so many "ifs" on this team. That's the part that really gets to me. If you had asked me three or four years ago if the O's would field a team in 2013 with this many "ifs", then I would have said no way. There's a lot more promise than three or four years ago, for sure. And I'm trying to focus on that promise. But so many "ifs".

Hence all the roster depth. Buck and DD have built in redundancies to help keep the 25 man roster at peak efficiency throughout the year. Just look at 2012 and see McLouth, Gonzalez, Tillman, Saunders, Wolf. You lower the risk of all the "ifs" by having fallback options.

[SeaBird]

Let's see what Dan Duquette has to say about this:

The idea of calling and talking to Nick Swisher or listening to him speak next to me in a press conference would be too much for me to bear. Complimenting him while he beams at the cameras would make me physically ill. It appears Duquette feels the same way.

Edit: If you can sit through this and still say you'd love to have him aboard, then more power to you

I sat through it. What's the problem? He's a guy that obviously is enjoying life and having fun. He grew a stash for Movember, a men's health charity, which raises awareness and research funds for the Prostate Cancer Foundation and Livestrong.

Yeah. He's a terrible human being.

[waroriole]

I disagree with the bold.

Additions after ALDS Game 5:

Markakis

Betemit

Reimold

Jurrgens

Wada

Losses after ALDS Game 5:

Reynolds

Saunders

Thome

If everyone goes into the season healthy, then the 2013 Opening Day roster is better than the roster available for the Playoffs.

Yep. I don't get this "Reynolds is gone, we're doomed" attitude. Reynolds was barely above replacement last year. We ain't losing anything. Actually, we'll be better because his replacement(s) should perform at a much higher level.

Also, I think we're just as likely to get solid contributions from one of Britton/Matusz/Johnson/Jurrjens at #5 SP as we would from Saunders.

[Tony-OH]

Seeing as how two of DD's biggest goals were 1) acquiring a MOO bat and 2) focusing on OBP, you've got to think he considers this offseason a failure.

Simply put, that's the bottom line. DD said he wanted to acquire a MOO. He failed to do so. I like the amount of depth he brought in and feel he may find a gem or two with those, but the bottom line is he failed to upgrade the offense with a MOO and that makes this off season a bit of a failure in my mind. Maybe he still has something up his sleeve, but it certainly appears he's counting on the starting pitching to be as good as it was in the second half last year while also hoping the offense will be better with Markakis and Reimold back. I have no idea what trades were available to him and what he would have had to given up to acquire a MOO, but at some point you have to be willing to either A) Spend some real money or B) Be willing to give up a high upside prospect in order to acquire an impact talent. Duquette seems unwilling to do either this off season.

[SeaBird]

I feel like the off season was about the budget. Peter must have told DD, 'You started last year with 81M. You have 12M more. Make it work'.That would explain why Reynolds had to go. Too many arbitration guys that the O's had to sign.

The O's team is better then what its was to start 2012 but not as good as what it was at the end of the season. DD will have to add during the season.

I agree with the bolded part. Sort of like Angelos saying, "Look how well we did last year. We don't have to break the bank to make another run this year".

The off season isn't over yet and there is still time (even if it stretches out to the trsding deadline) but the team won't be close to accomplishing what it did in 2012.

[Bradysburns]

I agree with the OP's sentiment - and earlier in the offseason, I REALLY agreed with it. But at this point, I've reached acceptance. It comes back to a basic trust that DD and the scouting dept., and Buck, and all the other evaluators, are much more capable than prior regimes. They're making assessments based on information that nobody outside the organization would have. I can't imagine DD sitting there with another 5 years on his contract... and just biding time, pinching pennies for no good reason.

I think he must have a lot of confidence - and well founded confidence - in the pending contributions of guys like Machado, Bundy, maybe even Jurrjens, and the others, along with Reimold, Markakis and possible Roberts. On the pitching side, I think the Peterson factor must be huge in DD's thinking and confidence. Before this regime, I would have been VERY skeptical of Bundy or Gausman ever really contributing. Now I would be mildly surprised if they didn't contribute - and soon.

Overall, I do hope we add another good starter - I would be down with a Lohse signing, at the right price. Other than that, I'm looking forward to seeing what this team can do this year. I think we might surprise - again. But the more likely scenario involves some more growing pains and a .500-ish record, IMO. That's why they play the games!

[isestrex]

The real question of this thread... has DD thrown in the towel on the offseason yet?

[NCRaven]

The O's team is better then what its was to start 2012 but not as good as what it was at the end of the season. DD will have to add during the season.

Just can't agree with this. Manny Machado wasn't a top prospect for nothing and should improve this season. We are improved at 2B with numerous options including Roberts, Casilla and a more experienced Flaherty. Davis is no longer in rightfield which means a very large defensive upgrade with the return of Markakis. And, Markakis RF/Davis 1B is better offensively than Davis RF/Reynolds 1B (IMO, anyway). We also have better right handed bench/DH options with the return of Reimold and acquisitions including Valencia. McLouth should stabilize LF and if he doesn't, there are a number of other options and the Dickerson/Robinson roster spot winner should provide a pretty good 4th outfielder for the bench.

I don't think this team has made any huge upgrades, but I don't think it's taken a step back either. Two things that became very clear to me this off season was that Buck and Duquetter were in agreement that they did not want Reynolds on this team and that they were absolutely not willing to trade Bundy or Machado. I agree with them on both points.

[NCRaven]

The real question of this thread... has DD thrown in the towel on the offseason yet?

Thrown in the towel implies surrender or no longer trying. I don't think that will ever be the case with Duquette. He strikes me as the kind of GM that is always looking for a way to improve the team or provide a steady supply of options for his manager when they are needed. We might not make another acquisition before the season starts, but it won't be because DD has "thrown in the towel" on anything.

[bluedog]

I disagree with the bold.

Additions after ALDS Game 5:

Markakis

Betemit

Reimold

Jurrjens

Wada

Losses after ALDS Game 5:

Reynolds

Saunders

Thome

If everyone goes into the season healthy, then the 2013 Opening Day roster is better than the roster available for the Playoffs.

Agree strongly. Our OD 2013 squad should be markedly superior to the OD roster for a 93 win team in 2012. And it's hard to compare our current roster with our playoff roster last year, because (assuming we are in contention again down the stretch) DD will almost certainly improve the 2013 team mid-season just as he did last year with the Saunders / McLouth acquisitions and through callups from the farm (Bundy, Gausmann, Schoop, etc).

I'm actually very pleased with the way this off-season has gone. I think the O's front office made a logical assessment of the team and determined that they didn't need to reach on any FA acquisitions or trades to remain very competitive. The thing I'm most excited by, is the fact DD has avoided committing large amounts of money to mediocre, old free agents past their prime like most of the previous regimes have done. There is help coming from the farm and from the DL list and we have a surplus of pitching that will allow us to be active trade partners during the season. I expect the team to be better at the end of 2013 than it was at the beginning of the season, just like we were last year.

[bluedog]

The real question of this thread... has DD thrown in the towel on the offseason yet?

No way. We know that DD is always working to improve the team from past experience. He may not make any more significant moves, but that doesn't mean he's given up on trying to make one.

[NCRaven]

Simply put, that's the bottom line. DD said he wanted to acquire a MOO. He failed to do so. I like the amount of depth he brought in and feel he may find a gem or two with those, but the bottom line is he failed to upgrade the offense with a MOO and that makes this off season a bit of a failure in my mind. Maybe he still has something up his sleeve, but it certainly appears he's counting on the starting pitching to be as good as it was in the second half last year while also hoping the offense will be better with Markakis and Reimold back. I have no idea what trades were available to him and what he would have had to given up to acquire a MOO, but at some point you have to be willing to either A) Spend some real money or B) Be willing to give up a high upside prospect in order to acquire an impact talent. Duquette seems unwilling to do either this off season.

I agree that if you're comparing what Duquette said he wanted to do - acquire a MOO - and what he did do - acquire a lot of smaller pieces, ie. role players and bullpen arms. But, as you said, we don't know what other teams were demanding in trades and there were a number of reports that every wanted Bundy or Machado. If so, I'm glad we didn't give in just to make a move. I wouldn't have paid Hamilton or Grienke what they got given the risk for both of them. And, no one else on the market really fit the MOO type of player that we really were hoping for. So, I'm not as disappointed as many here and am encouraged by Buck's ability to put this group of players in the best possible position to succeed.

[waroriole]

I agree that if you're comparing what Duquette said he wanted to do - acquire a MOO - and what he did do - acquire a lot of smaller pieces, ie. role players and bullpen arms. But, as you said, we don't know what other teams were demanding in trades and there were a number of reports that every wanted Bundy or Machado. If so, I'm glad we didn't give in just to make a move. I wouldn't have paid Hamilton or Grienke what they got given the risk for both of them. And, no one else on the market really fit the MOO type of player that we really were hoping for. So, I'm not as disappointed as many here and am encouraged by Buck's ability to put this group of players in the best possible position to succeed.

The only player that could have made sense for what he got is Swisher. Good OBP, decent power, can play LF or 1B. However, I can understand letting him pass since he's 32 and got 4/52.

[Ohfan67]

Hence all the roster depth. Buck and DD have built in redundancies to help keep the 25 man roster at peak efficiency throughout the year. Just look at 2012 and see McLouth, Gonzalez, Tillman, Saunders, Wolf. You lower the risk of all the "ifs" by having fallback options.

This is true. But most if not all of the fallbacks are iffy performers. I'm a little bummed and a little pessimistic, or at least more bummed and pessimistic than most of the O's fans seem, but I do recognize that DD did a great job of getting the best backup possibilities last year and he and Buck were extremely effective at bringing up the hot hand at the right moment. There were quotes from Buck from Fanfest talking about how grateful/happy he was that DD was willing to make a move for just one or two games while they were on the west coast (implying to me that MacPhail was less willing to make "minor", short term, inconvenient moves with the roster that would "only" influence one or two games). I definitely applaud DD for this and I think Buck plays an important role too. No doubt this is fantastic. But those players are still those players. A lot of the depth provided marginal to decent productivity instead of abysmal that was provided in years past and that made a difference. But it's not the kind of thing that builds consistently quality rosters. History suggests you have to have damn good players at many spots to win on a consistent basis. You can have one year wonders for sure. I was just hoping that the O's would be significantly further down the road to building a team that looks like a consistent winner. This offseason didn't really do that IMO. DD didn't make any horrible moves IMO and, again, I applaud his ability to build depth. But AAAA depth and hoping to catch lightening in a bottle only helps a team so much.