Throwing in the towel on the offseason

[El Gordo]

Let's see. Last year ending roster vs this year:

IMO

Hammel 2012 < Hammel 2013

Chen < Chen

Tillman > Tillman

Gonzo = Gonzo

Saunders = Saunders or < Britton/Wada/Matusz/Jurrjens

JJ > JJ

Strop = Strop

Ayala = Ayala

O'Day > ODay

Patton = Patton

Hunter < Hunter

Matusz < Matusz

1B Reynolds < Davis

2B Andino/Q/Flaherty < Roberts/Cassilla/Flaherty

3B Machado < Machado

SS Hardy < Hardy

LF McLouth< McLouth/ reimold

CF Jones > Jones

RF Davis < Markakis

DH Thome < Betemit/Reimold/Valencia

Teagarden = Teagarden

Q/Flahery < Cassilla/Flaherty

Ford < Reimold

Chavez = Valencia

Still think we're better this year.

[wildcard]

Try looking at this thread: http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/129716-What-do-you-think-is-the-injury-risk-of-our-main-position-players.

Thanks.

So I see your point that the last years team had more injuries then the average by a good number. But when I look at Frobby's prediction for 2013 it looks just as bad as 2012.

[DoubleStufOriole]

One other aspect of losing Reynolds that most people think is overrated is the fact that several of his teammates were quite fond of him and said that he was great for the team's chemistry. They've made it known to the press that he'll be sorely missed.

Now, I realize that's only important to a point...and what a player does on the field is a lot more crucial than how he acts in the locker room, but considering that Justin Upton was just traded away for an underwhelming package of players because some believe he just "wasn't a good fit" for the team he played on, "chemistry" is certainly an attribute to pay attention to.

[wildcard]

Here is my take:

Let's see. Last year ending roster vs this year:

IMO

Hammel 2012 > Hammel 2013 (Hammel has a significantly worst 2nd half history)

Chen < Chen

Tillman < Tillman (I am Tillman believer. A full year is better than half a year.

Gonzo < Gonzo (Full year better than a half year)

Saunders = Saunders or > Britton/Wada/Matusz/Jurrjens (None of these guys have proven to be .500 pitcher except Jurrjens who is an injury risk)

JJ > JJ

Strop = Strop

Ayala = Ayala

O'Day > ODay

Patton = Patton

Hunter < Hunter

Matusz > McFarland (Can't be optioned)

1B Reynolds < Davis (This way of doing this isn't accurate because it does reflect the loss of Reynolds IMO)

2B Andino/Q/Flaherty < Roberts/Casilla/Flaherty

3B Machado < Machado

SS Hardy = Hardy (Injury risk even if his offense improves)

LF McLouth< McLouth/ reimold

CF Jones < Jones

RF Davis < Markakis

DH Thome < Betemit/Reimold/Valencia

Teagarden = Teagarden

Q/Flahery < Cassilla/Flaherty

Ford < Reimold

Chavez/Betemit < Valencia

Though there is slight improvement in many places its doesn't out weigh the loss of 30HR and 80RBI from Reynolds nor the .500 pitcher that Saunders is likely to be. If some of the young starters can become .500 pitchers that will help. A healthy season by Reimold helps overcome the loss of Reynolds but I don't think either is projectable at this point.

[VeveJones007]

First, we absolutely know that not everyone will stay healthy. You are kind of smearing the lens to say that the O's have added Markakis, Betemit, Reimold and Wada. They were with the team all year just injured for part of it. And there will be players injured for part of 2013. That is no way to compare the players on the 2012 and 2013 teams. Its more like.

Added:

Jurrjens

T Robinson

Casilla

McFarland

L Martinez

Navarro

Valencia

Lost

Saunder (for now)

Reynolds

Andino

Chavez

Thome

I'm growing weary of this.

The O's team is better then what its was to start 2012 but not as good as what it was at the end of the season.

The team right now is better than the team that played in Game 5 of the ALDS. That isn't debatable by any objective measure.

[wildcard]

I'm growing weary of this.

The team right now is better than the team that played in Game 5 of the ALDS. That isn't debatable by any objective measure.

Weary though you may be, just stating that you don't agree doesn't prove you are right. You have to tell why to be taken seriously on the topic.

[isestrex]

Though there is slight improvement in many places its doesn't out weigh the loss of 30HR and 80RBI from Reynolds nor the .500 pitcher that Saunders is likely to be. If some of the young starters can become .500 pitchers that will help. A healthy season by Reimold helps overcome the loss of Reynolds but I don't think either is projectable at this point.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Reynolds didn't hit 30 homers or 80 RBI last year. I was one of the biggest defenders of Reynolds back in July when everyone said he was WITHOUT A DOUBT THE SINGLE BIGGEST REASON WHY WE ARE LOSING!!!!!!! (you probably don't have to remember too hard to recall the board's overall mood at that point). I argued that he would get hot and he did (though not as hot as I expected). Now that he's gone, I don't see why people are saying "He's such a huge loss to this team. He was money in the bank". Reynolds is a flawed player with tantalizing potential. You think he should be a little better than he is, but he isn't. I don't see how his flukey power streaks are any more reliable than his replacements (i.e. Reimold or the Betemit/Valencia platoon). To me, there's very very little drop off and because Reimold is younger, I actually have more stock in his potential than Reynolds.

As for Saunders... look he was nice, but since I really don't think arguing winning % is a stable argument to stand on, I'll ignore those numbers and pick something more substantial. So let's pick ERA+ instead. He's hovered around 100 for the last few seasons: 112 in 2012, 108 in 2011, 114 in 2010, 101 in 2009, 103 in 2008. Saying that none of these 4 (Britton, Matusz, Wada, Jurrjens) haven't proven to be capable is understandable... except in the case of Jurrjens. In 2009 and in 2011 he put up ERA+'s of 159 and 129 respectively. Plus there's a lot of hope that a healthy Britton (or Arrieta for that matter) can easily replace what Saunders brought to the team. Jurrjens has the potential to possibly be the best pitcher on the team.

In other words, I don't really see how we lost so much with the subtractions of Reynolds and Saunders. We lost very little and in both cases I think there's a good chance we see those slots greatly improved upon and upgraded.

[Fla_O'sfan]

I'm growing weary of this.

The team right now is better than the team that played in Game 5 of the ALDS. That isn't debatable by any objective measure.

I'm just curious which of the additions make this so it "isn't debatable by any objective measure"?

Valencia, Martinez, Navarro or Robinson? They played the bulk of their games in AAA and hit .188,.111,.160, and .221 at the ML level respectively last season. McFarland and his nearly 5.00 ERA at AAA? Jurrjens and his nearly 7.00 at Atlanta? Casilla and his .241 average? To me, at the very least, it seems debatable.

[wildcard]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Reynolds didn't hit 30 homers or 80 RBI last year. I was one of the biggest defenders of Reynolds back in July when everyone said he was WITHOUT A DOUBT THE SINGLE BIGGEST REASON WHY WE ARE LOSING!!!!!!! (you probably don't have to remember too hard to recall the board's overall mood at that point). I argued that he would get hot and he did (though not as hot as I expected). Now that he's gone, I don't see why people are saying "He's such a huge loss to this team. He was money in the bank". Reynolds is a flawed player with tantalizing potential. You think he should be a little better than he is, but he isn't. I don't see how his flukey power streaks are any more reliable than his replacements (i.e. Reimold or the Betemit/Valencia platoon). To me, there's very very little drop off and because Reimold is younger, I actually have more stock in his potential than Reynolds.

As for Saunders... look he was nice, but since I really don't think arguing winning % is a stable argument to stand on, I'll ignore those numbers and pick something more substantial. So let's pick ERA+ instead. He's hovered around 100 for the last few seasons: 112 in 2012, 108 in 2011, 114 in 2010, 101 in 2009, 103 in 2008. Saying that none of these 4 (Britton, Matusz, Wada, Jurrjens) haven't proven to be capable is understandable... except in the case of Jurrjens. In 2009 and in 2011 he put up ERA+'s of 159 and 129 respectively. Plus there's a lot of hope that a healthy Britton (or Arrieta for that matter) can easily replace what Saunders brought to the team. Jurrjens has the potential to possibly be the best pitcher on the team.

In other words, I don't really see how we lost so much with the subtractions of Reynolds and Saunders. We lost very little and in both cases I think there's a good chance we see those slots greatly improved upon and upgraded.

Its much more important what Reynolds projections show he would do in 2013 than what he did in 2012 when trying to understand what Reynold leaving means. A three year average of his last three year numbers gives a decent projection. 30 HR, 80 RBI, 776 OPS in 497 at bats. That includes years when he was injured. That is what the O's lost and if they had replaced it there would be not question about Reynolds leaving. But they really didn't.

However, Reimold at 29 has not such proven record. Over the past three years Reimold has averaged 7 HR, 23 RBI, 764 OPS in 150 at bats. To say that he can replace Reynolds is a wish, a hope and a prayer that he can stay healthy and produce in the major leagues. I like Reimold. I will root hard for him but proven is not the word that comes to mind with him.

Betemit basically hits righties. And he has almost never DHed in his career. Some players have problems adjusting to that. He has a 708 OPS at DH in 29 games in his career. Valencia only hits lefties if he can overcome last years problems. So if you replace Betemit with Valencia in the 6th inning to go against the lefthanded reliever, who hits against the righthanded setup man or closer in the 8h or 9th inning?

Last years team had Markakis in RF, Reynolds at 1B, Davis at DH and Betemit on the bench. Davis could play DH/RF/LF/DH. That is much more proven and much better then hoping that Davis can play 1B as well as Reynolds did. And hope the Reimold/Betemit/Valencia can hold down three spots on the roster. By leaving Reynolds go the O's are more vulnerable to injury. The depth has been hurt.

So the O's have taken a playoff team and removed a big part of it. They are left with unproven pieces. I hope it works.

Same thing with Saunders. I proven innings eater that we witnessed to be good in big games. The replacement are unproven and have all had major difficulties in the last few years except Steve Johnson. His question is much more about his stuff holding up to major league hitters. Saunders helped the O's get to and win in the playoffs. None of the others come close to being that proven.

I understand budgets and I understand staying young but lets not fool ourselves into think that unproven is as good as proven when trying to contend in the AL East. The O's are going to try to contend with a less proven team then the one that led to the surge in August and Sept and that played a huge part in October. Buckle Up.

[MurphDogg]

I'm just curious which of the additions make this so it "isn't debatable by any objective measure"?

Valencia' date=' Martinez, Navarro or Robinson? They played the bulk of their games in AAA and hit .188,.111,.160, and .221 at the ML level respectively last season. McFarland and his nearly 5.00 ERA at AAA? Jurrjens and his nearly 7.00 at Atlanta? Casilla and his .241 average? To me, at the very least, it seems debatable.[/quote']

Markakis

Reimold

[El Gordo]

Here is my take:

Let's see. Last year ending roster vs this year:

IMO

Hammel 2012 > Hammel 2013 (Hammel has a significantly worst 2nd half history)

Chen < Chen

Tillman < Tillman (I am Tillman believer. A full year is better than half a year.

Gonzo < Gonzo (Full year better than a half year)

Saunders = Saunders or > Britton/Wada/Matusz/Jurrjens (None of these guys have proven to be .500 pitcher except Jurrjens who is an injury risk)

JJ > JJ

Strop = Strop

Ayala = Ayala

O'Day > ODay

Patton = Patton

Hunter < Hunter

Matusz > McFarland (Can't be optioned)

1B Reynolds < Davis (This way of doing this isn't accurate because it does reflect the loss of Reynolds IMO)

2B Andino/Q/Flaherty < Roberts/Casilla/Flaherty

3B Machado < Machado

SS Hardy = Hardy (Injury risk even if his offense improves)

LF McLouth< McLouth/ reimold

CF Jones < Jones

RF Davis < Markakis

DH Thome < Betemit/Reimold/Valencia

Teagarden = Teagarden

Q/Flahery < Cassilla/Flaherty

Ford < Reimold

Chavez/Betemit < Valencia

Though there is slight improvement in many places its doesn't out weigh the loss of 30HR and 80RBI from Reynolds nor the .500 pitcher that Saunders is likely to be. If some of the young starters can become .500 pitchers that will help. A healthy season by Reimold helps overcome the loss of Reynolds but I don't think either is projectable at this point.

I'd be willing to bet that Matusz, Britton, Jurrjens and Wada will combine to win more games and lose fewer than Saunders. Because of depth when ever one struggles they will quickly be replaced with another. They simply wont be allowed to pitch poorly for any length of time. Saunders on the other hand will be given a longer leash because of his salary. The supposed loss of Reynolds phantom 30 HR and 80 RBI will easily be made up between Betemit, Reimold, Machado, and Markakis playng a full season.

[Hank Scorpio]

Markakis

Reimold

Really, what it boils down to is do you believe Reimold, Markakis and Jurrjens or whatever addition you feel like picking are > Saunders and Reynolds.

[bluedog]

I'm growing weary of this.

The team right now is better than the team that played in Game 5 of the ALDS. That isn't debatable by any objective measure.

I'll take a shot

+ healthy Markakis

+ healthy Roberts

+ healthy Reimold

+ healthy Hammel

+ healthy Wada

+ Jurrjens

+ more flexible roster (Flaherty not taking permanent bench spot)

+ healthy Betemit

+ better depth at AAA (all of the new depth signings)

- Reynolds

- Saunders

I don't count losing Andino, Chavez or Thome (who was injured at season's end) as negatives.

I don't think there is any argument the team going into ST is better than the squad that finished the playoffs last year.

[El Gordo]

Really, what it boils down to is do you believe Reimold, Markakis and Jurrjens or whatever addition you feel like picking are > Saunders and Reynolds.

Don't forget Endy Chavez and Andino. We'll never recover from their loss.

[wildcard]

I'd be willing to bet that Matusz, Britton, Jurrjens and Wada will combine to win more games and lose fewer than Saunders. Because of depth when ever one struggles they will quickly be replaced with another. They simply wont be allowed to pitch poorly for any length of time. Saunders on the other hand will be given a longer leash because of his salary. The supposed loss of Reynolds phantom 30 HR and 80 RBI will easily be made up between Betemit, Reimold, Machado, and Markakis playng a full season.

Hope you are right.